So good has Chris Paul become through his first 45 games, that there is a growing perception that the three players selected ahead of him are already in danger of joining Sam Bowie in a category no player wants any part of.

First of all, Sam Bowie wasn?t a horrible player.  In his rookie season, he averaged 10 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in 76 appearances.  He appeared in fewer games over the next three seasons combined (63) and it was then that the Blazers decided to cut their losses and deal him to the Nets (along with the 12th pick that became Mookie ?Pearl Jam? Blaylock) for Buck Williams.

Bowie had the most productive season of his career during that first year on a dreadful Nets team that went 17-65.  He averaged 14.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game that season while his former club lost to the Pistons in the Finals.  The next two seasons were also productive as he averaged 12.9 and 7.7 and then 15 and 8.1.  

The mistake of drafting Bowie has been artificially magnified by Michael Jordan?s once-a-generation career. Drexler, of course, was there already, so it might have been a mistake for the Blazers, who clearly had prioritized the need for a big man, not to select Sam Perkins, Charles Barkley or Kevin Willis, more than the Jordan pass that they are chastised for.  

Darko Milicic, another 2nd overall pick, has a long ways to go to even sniff Sam Bowie?s league.  Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are all on their way to having franchise-player careers, but like that Blazers team that went to the Finals twice, the mistake the Pistons made has been far from monumental, as they have already won one championship and are on their way to their third straight Finals appearance.  Many have even argued that the presence of a star caliber player like Anthony would have disrupt the development of TayShaun Prince, who at small forward, is the axis of the Pistons dominant starting-five.

The question though is this, how big was the mistake not to select Chris Paul?  Three teams passed on the Wake Forest point guard in favor of Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams and Deron Williams.  

The Bucks were optimistically counting on T.J. Ford returning and he has, so they are withdrawn from consideration.

Utah?s biggest need was at point guard and they traded up to the third spot and selected one, except not Paul.  Deron Williams came out of the gate very strong, averaging 13.6 points per game in November.  Like many young point guards that have played for Jerry Sloan in the post-Stockton era (ask Carlos Arroyo and Raul Lopez their opinion of Sloan), Williams has fallen out of favor and has seen his minutes drop and now averages almost 10 mpg less than Paul, though in actuality it has been closer to 15 minutes less per game since the New Year.

For a rookie, comparing life with Byron Scott to life with Jerry Sloan, is like comparing life with Sadie Frost to life with Sienna Miller.  One will let you do unequivocally do what you want, while the other is fierce, frustrating and unpredictable.  The difference is so striking that if the two point guards were flipped, like Nick Coppola and Vincent Vega in ?Face/Off,? Deron Williams' play would look a lot like Paul?s if he were in O. City and vice versa.

The jury will remain out on these two until Williams gets the consistent minutes his play warrants.  The Jazz are better with Williams on the floor than not, as their only +20 or more five-man units (see 82games.com) both contain the rookie.  Meanwhile, Paul?s net +/- is -5.3, but I?m not exactly sure what?s going on with the +- stats in New Orleans/Oklahoma City as David West?s is -8.4.  From what I?ve seen, West and Paul are having unbelievable seasons and are spearheading the Hornets' surprising year more than anyone else.

But like 1984 and 2003, it all goes back to that second pick.  With Bowie and Darko in that second pick lexicon are Wayman Tisdale, Len Bias, Shawn Bradley and Jay Williams, and there have been rumblings already that Marvin Williams could join that group, instead of second pick successes like Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd and Steve Francis.

I hope that this is because of the talent Paul has shown, combined with the Hawks glaring need for a point guard and their wealth of similar players to Williams, than it is their assessment of the former Tar Heel, because that short sightedness is unfair and flat out inacurrate.

I was at the Final Four in April and saw Williams score 8 points and grab 5 boards in the national final against Deron Williams? Illini and the strides that he has made from then to the times I?ve seen him this year are profound.  The strides that he has even made since November have given the Hawks a silent optimism while they endure the ?Why didn?t you draft Paul?? backlash.

His shooting percentage has improved each month (37% in November, 44% in December and 49% in January), all the while coach Mike Woodson has kept his minutes consistently around 22 a night.  When you adjust his numbers to per 40 minutes, he comes in at 12 and 8.  

Marvin?s chosen position remains undefined, though he is clearly a small forward at present, but when Al Harrington is dealt this month, his time at power forward will increase.  The Hawks drafted Williams because he has the potential to develop one of the NBA?s best inside/outside games the sport has seen.  The mechanics of his shot are as good as most shooting guards and because of this, he can become Rasheed Wallace without the Jail Blazer wrap, he can become Dirk Nowitzki with more explosiveness and he can become Tim Thomas without the apathy.  All three of these players are small forward/power forward tweeners and they are so good, Thomas excluded of course, because they create match-up problems for even the best defensive clubs.

In a recent article, I suggested that Rasheed Wallace is the purest shooter at the power forward position that the game has ever seen.  In that article, I asked readers to suggest an alternative if they disagreed.  I received about a dozen or so emails and all of them said ?Dirk.?  He can play power forward, but I still think his game is that of a small forward, much the same as Joe Johnson, Williams? Atlanta teammate, a combo guard who remains more comfortable at the two.  As Dirk ages and slows down, he?ll go to the block more and begin the second phase of his career and at that point, I?ll reconsider.  

But back to Williams versus Paul, if I was named general manager of the Hawks and could go back to late June of 2005, I would take Chris Paul. I?d select the point guard because the Hawks need a point guard, a selection for need at a position that is the toughest to fill outside of center.  It would be a reluctant selection though, because it wouldn?t be who I believe is the B.P.A. and it is when teams draft for need (re: Sam Bowie), where the results are most mixed.

The results will not be mixed for Chris Paul, but nor will they be for Marvin Williams, as he is developing the NBA's next great inside/outside game.

Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM.com and can be reached via email at Chris@RealGM.com.