In a new series with Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics.com, I pose a question that has been on my mind, and he examines the statistical evidence.

CR: After a disappointing summer league in which he was eventually shutdown with tendinitis in his right knee, Derrick Rose has been the leading favorite for Rookie of the Year and has shown glimpses of eventually joining the elite ranks at the point guard position.  Transitioning to become an NBA point guard after one season in college is a difficult proposition.  How does his rookie season compare to that of Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, and Gary Payton?

JN: Paul was great from the get-go.  Point guards normally don't start out as very efficient players, but he posted an offensive tating of 114 during his rookie year.  It's not as high as the 127 he has this season, but it's still well above average.  His PER was also a very strong 22.1  He's gotten better in every category since then, except for turnovers.  He has made the biggest jump in his third season.

Deron Williams was actually below average during his rookie season.  His offensive rating was just 103, and his PER was just 12.4.  He shot a very low percentage, with a true shot percentage of just .500.  He also had a high turnover rate which has progressively gotten worse since his rookie year.  He made his biggest jump during his second year when his assist rate when way up although he improved almost as much in his third season.

Kidd was similar to Williams in his rookie year.  He was pretty inefficient although he did have a slightly better PER, posting a 15.1 figure.  He showed signs in two areas that have stayed with him for his entire career: his high rebounding rate for a point guard and his tendency to turn the ball over.  I would argue that his fifth season (his second full year with Phoenix), which was the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season, was his breakout year.  It was probably his best year as a pro.  He actually regressed towards the mean after that year but still remained near the top of the list of the best point guards.

Payton had numbers very similar to Williams during his rookie year although he was a better defender.  His ofensive rating was 104, and his PER was 13.2  Like Williams, he shot a low percentage (true shot of .476) and turned the ball over often.  He eventually turned both of  
those numbers around dramatically.  His breakout year was probably his third season although he had another mini-breakout year in his fifth season.  By then, he was a superstar.

As for Rose, he's having a better rookie season than all of the guys except for Paul.  Paul was a star right away, and it's a testament to how great a career he's going to have (he has the second best PER in the league this season).  Rose's PER is at 15.7, and his offensive rating is an average 106.  His true shot percentage and turnovers are better than those three guys, but he doesn't have the assist numbers.  Another thing to consider is that Rose has been struggling of late, so we'll have to monitor if he's hit the rookie wall.

He can become of the NBA's great point guards if he can get his defense to the level of Kidd and Payton, which is certainly no easy task.  It's unfair to ask him to be as good as Paul because, barring injury, we may remember Paul as the best point guard ever (I know that sounds crazy but give it time).  As mentioned earlier, most of these  
point guards made their improvements between their third and fifth seasons.  Rose may be a special case because he started at such a young age, but by 2013 or so, we should have a pretty good idea of what his career will be.

- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM

- Jon Nichols is the creator and editor of Basketball-Statistics.  Check out the site for more stuff like this, including Jon's own player rating system called Composite Score.  Also, look for daily  
statistical recaps of each night's games.