When Chris Rock hosted the Oscars in 2005, he did a bit about how it seemed like Jude Law was in every movie. At the end of it, he said "If you want Tom Cruise and all you can get is Jude Law, WAIT!" Of course, Tom Cruise is not Tom Cruise anymore, but the premise is particularly relevant in the 2010 free agent market.

One major differentiating factor among the various teams that should be relevant in the 2010 free agent frenzy is how many offseasons they could have cap space. Some teams have the most space in 2010 because of players they will need to re-sign in the near future, like Portland's short cap window that closed when they extended Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge before the beginning of the current season. Other teams have space in 2010, but actually have more in 2011 thanks to additional expiring contracts; the Knicks are the most prominent team in this group. Still others have pretty much the same amount of space going forward, including the Nets and the Clippers.

Keeping in mind how there are not enough franchise-changing players to satisfy each team that has a need, there is a group of organizations that would be prudent to be willing to sit on their cap space if they do not get the right player(s) in 2010. As someone who follows the Warriors most closely, the Corey Maggette situation serves as an excellent example of the problems that can happen when a team panics and makes a poor decision with their cap space after getting spurned by players higher on their list.

While the 2010 class has been discussed to death in recent months, the 2011 class should have some important players that may end up changing zip codes, including Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol (if the Lakers don't jump on it quick), and Tony Parker.

New Jersey: The Nets have max money in 2010, but are much better suited to 2011 because their Brooklyn arena will be much closer to reality and the Russian Mark Cuban should be more firmly entrenched with the team. There are not any significant salary differences between 2010 and 2011 except for potential buyouts for Keyon Dooling and Eduardo Najera being off the books, balanced by Chris Douglas-Roberts needing to be re-signed (if they want to pay him with Courtney Lee and Terrance Williams on rookie deals). If LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire go elsewhere, there is a certain small forward who was born and raised in Brooklyn before moving to Baltimore and starring in college in upstate New York that could be interested in being the face of the franchise in 2011...

New York: The team I would be most worried about making a Maggette-like mistake because of the pressure on management to turn the momentum around. Intuitively, the Knicks appear reasonably likely to get one of the Big Four in this free agent class, but they are also the team that could be hit the hardest by any possible collaboration between two free agent stars unless they decide to play at the Garden. Amare reuniting with Mike D'Antoni makes a great deal of sense, but the Knicks could decide to just wait one more year for Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries to expire. Something that makes the Knicks distinct right now is that they have so few players on their current roster that they will have a need to extend in the next year or two; Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler are both signed through 2011, so the only players they need to decide on soon are David Lee and Nate Robinson this summer.

Los Angeles Clippers: My sleeper team for the 2010 bonanza has pretty much the same limitations in both years, with the only real differences being Sebastian Telfair's player option for 2010 and Al Thornton's RFA season. It would be somewhat difficult for the Clippers to handle a max guy in 2011 if they have a high draft pick this season, but it would be do-able if the cap increases for 2011, which seems plausible now.

Miami: Probably better to book free agents now since Super Nintendo Chalmers, Michael Beasley, and potentially Daequan Cook will be up for extensions in the next few years, coupled with the fact that they will have to fill their roster spots somehow and some of those will likely come on multi-year deals. As long as they have Wade, Miami will be a relevant factor for free agents when they have cap space.

Chicago: The Bulls have this year to make a free agent impact, since the only guy coming off the books for 2011 is John Salmons while a Joakim Noah extension would kick in that summer. If they move Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, or both, it can push that back a season, but moves involving them for expirings seem unlikely right now.

Cleveland: LeBron or bust, basically. It is exceedingly difficult to see where this team goes if he leaves, though their cap space would not change dramatically from 2010 to 2011 if he bolted since their major players that are not expiring this summer are still on the books for a while.

Minnesota: It does not make too big a difference, since all of their major players have long-term contracts, typically rookie deals (it is possible that Minnesota will have eight players on their first NBA contract next season). When they make a move will likely depend on what gets offered when, which may make facilitating a move with a 2010 team during that off-season (hello Chicago or New York) more reasonable. If they end up going the free agent route, 2011 should be more likely since they hopefully will have more momentum in terms of the win column at that point.

Oklahoma City: If Kevin Durant is hesitating at all about committing to the team, this is the off-season for them to make an impact since he could sign an extension at the end of next summer. What makes Sam Presti's job more difficult is that he presumably has to figure out the long-term structure of his team including the amount the young guys will make after their rookie deals are done. The pay jumps for Jeff Green, Ruseell Westbrook, and the Durantula may be a few years down the line, but they affect the decision-making unless ownership bucks the trend and is willing to pay the tax in a few seasons.

It is far too early to see where the dominoes will fall next season, but teams would be wise to wait for the best opportunity, especially if the high-profile teams get their men in 2010.

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