On Monday, I argued that college stats are not a perfect predictor of draft position or NBA success. But let’s see how the early entrants of the 2011 NBA Draft did in college during the most recently completed season.

Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams are the consensus top two picks and interestingly they have the top two Offensive Ratings among all the early entrants. Both used a very high number of possessions as well. In other words, for once the stats agree with the experts. But keep in mind that Irving’s numbers are a little inflated. Because of an injury, these were mostly compiled in the non-conference schedule, not in the rigors of the ACC.

The next table lists players that I like to call scouts’ favorites. That does not mean they were terrible college players, but their draft position is not really based on college performance. Even Travis Leslie, who was a very efficient scorer last year, has always gotten by on his ability to beat his defender off the dribble, not on his shooting ability or status as a polished college player. Tyler Honeycutt’s 97.1 ORtg stands out as particularly lousy, but he had a nice all-around game as a passer and shot-blocker. Some people are in love with Honeycutt’s athleticism. Josh Selby was ineligible, injured, and a bit of a disaster for Kansas, but his status as a top 10 high school player gives him hope as a first round pick. 

The next table lists players that I like to call college favorites. What that means more than anything is that they appeared to have a polished college game. If these players stuck around, they might win a few more games, but it is hard to see how they could accomplish much more on the court.

Trey Thompkins' ORtg looks a little suspect here, but his presence in the next table is at least partly based on his sophomore year performance. If he had declared a year ago, it would have been hard to argue with the decision. Tobias Harris actually might fit better on the scouts’ table, but he was such an all-around box sheet stuffer in college, I felt he was a better fit here.

The curse of being polished is that many people believe that polished players have little room to improve. They may be expected to have career trajectories closer to Brandon Roy than Derrick Rose. Roy burst onto the scene his rookie season, but has hit a plateau. I don’t know if I buy that with all these players, but it may explain why a player like Tyler Honeycutt with poor offensive numbers may be picked above some of these players. 

The next two players are very special cases that I have trouble classifying. Markieff Morris falls for twin syndrome, whereby the twin of dominant players often obtains some of the expectations of his presumed athletic equivalent. But it was not until this season that Markieff came anywhere near Marcus’ performance. Chris Singleton is being evaluated based on his shut down defense, including a great steal rate. His 102.2 Offensive Rating does not tell the whole story.

The following players were dominant in college, but because they went to low profile schools (Troy Gillenwater), are under-sized (Isaiah Thomas), or played for teams that were just plain lousy (Iman Shumpert), they will be lucky to get drafted in the first round. 

And finally we end with the guys who are somewhat puzzling draft participants. Washington State's drug issues probably sped Casto’s exit, but he was certainly under-hyped nationally. DeAndre Liggins sees all the talented being added to Kentucky next year, and probably figures his playing time was only going to go down. Jereme Richmond and Corey Joseph were high profile recruits, but both were role players as freshmen, making the jumps somewhat surprising. 

Like Al-Farouq Aminu last season, if they get the right tip from the right team, and they go in the middle of the first round, no one will question the move to jump to the NBA. These players certainly have talent. But if they get picked in the second round, and have to fight for a D-League spot, many people will be left scratching their heads.