After a Game 3 win by the Golden State Warriors over the Denver Nuggets that had both incredible atmosphere and truly wild action on the court, it felt best to take some time and really think about what that tilt taught us about the series.

There are a few key lessons that we can take away:

1. Andre Iguodala needs to be the most valuable player on the floor in order for the Nuggets to win the series- Ty Lawson has been and likely will continue to be fantastic but Iguodala stood out as the biggest difference-maker in the first half of Game 3. He can do an awfully good job shutting down one member of the Warriors for the time he spends on the court while also helping generate turnovers (and the easy offense necessary for the Nuggets to be effective) off traps and bad passes. In order to take a game in Oracle, Iguodala must augment his immense defensive value with at least some offensive positives. That can be as simple as an elimination of the negatives (two turnovers, 0-for-1 from the line, five missed three-pointers) or actually making some shots as a bonus.

2. The tactical coaching in the series has been and will continue to be terrible- The last minute of Game 3 was a clinic in what not to do from a coaching perspective for the most part. On two different occasions where all they needed to do was get the ball to Stephen Curry so he could shoot free throws, Mark Jackson and the Warriors took time outs before even attempting to get the ball in. Doing so gave them less chances to do what they wanted, yielding one turnover on a proper five second call and one possession where the shooter was Harrison Barnes, a rookie who finished the season seventh on the squad in free throw percentage. The inbounder on both of those was Jarrett Jack, the team’s second-best free throw shooter, taking him off the table.

George Karl and the Nuggets have made more than their fair share of silly mistakes as well. In the second quarter, Karl decided to play without either of their traditional centers and then put both Kosta Koufos and JaVale McGee on the floor at the same time later in the same period. When I asked him about it after the game, Karl explained that the Warriors had been beating Denver on the glass and he wanted to change the tide. Playing without a healthy big man could have led to some of those problems and playing Koufos and McGee together makes zero sense in terms of what Golden State has put on the floor since David Lee’s injury. In fact, the Warriors’ heavy use of the three point shot could mean that offensive rebounds could flow even stronger out of the area occupied by the two bigs.

Each coach has made some nice moves (like Jackson’s use of Harrison Barnes at power forward after David Lee’s injury and Karl’s beautiful play that yielded an open corner three for Wilson Chandler on Denver’s penultimate possession in Game 3) but the strange and poor choices continue to outweigh the flashes of brilliance.

3. Golden State needs to try different defenders on Ty Lawson- One of the benefits of playing a team like Denver that does not have a ton of dangerous players in terms of half court offense is that you can be more creative in how you cover them. Considering Lawson has done whatever he wanted on the offensive end, it could be time to see if Harrison Barnes or Kent Bazemore can do any better than the players who have already given it a try. Remembering that Andre Miller cannot blow by any perimeter player on this team might also help since they can put taller, worse defensive players on him who just have to react to what he does rather than bite on the fakes leading up to it. 

4. Both teams can win a game despite having an off night- The Warriors did not play a very good game on Friday. Lots of silly turnovers (23 that led to thirty Denver points) and strange games from both Jarrett Jack and Klay Thompson made it harder for the team to win, with the inconsistent officiating playing a meaningful role as well. The Nuggets had a similarly weird win in Game 1. That kind of balance in a series makes it harder to predict and more likely to last a little while longer.

5. Even if the series heads to 3-1, the series is far from over- While many 3-1 series seem to be just a matter of time, do not expect that should the Warriors win on Sunday. The series has been incredibly close and the Nuggets have already played well enough to win on the road. A victory for Denver in Game 5 would effectively make Game 6 a must-win for the Warriors since a Game Seven on the road in Denver would be a dangerous proposition.