After losing four starters and two top reserves, most expected the Portland Trail Blazers to fall to the bottom of the Western Conference. Instead, with two excellent free agent signings, the Blazers not only remained competitive but managed to thrive and even won a playoff series. With young talent up and down the roster and Neil Olshey and Terry Stotts in perfect rhythm at the top of the franchise, the Trail Blazers are well positioned moving forward. 

Portland had one of the more consistent starting units last season with good health and stability. Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu and Mason Plumlee all started every game they played, with Aminu and Plumlee playing all 82 games. The last starting spot was filled by Meyers Leonard to start the year, Noah Vonleh for the bulk of the season and by Maurice Harkless to close the season. This consistency also allowed the Trail Blazers to build a solid bench unit featuring Allen Crabbe, Ed Davis, Gerald Henderson and whoever wasn’t starting out of Harkless, Vonleh and Leonard.

Portland entered the season knowing they could count on All-Star production from Lillard and he didn’t disappoint. The rest of the roster was filled with potential and nearly all of it panned out. McCollum broke out as a starter for the first time and gave Lillard a partner that made them one of the best backcourts in the game. Crabbe joined them as a third guard and deadeye shooter off the bench. Aminu built on his prior success in Dallas, first as a 3&D wing and then closing the year as a small ball PF, essentially a poor man’s Draymond Green. His all-around play on both ends gave Portland necessary versatility in their rotation. Plumlee was highly efficient on offense and solid on defense in his first year as a fulltime starter. The aforementioned Davis was excellent as the primary backup big man, delivering among the most efficient stats on offense in the entire league. 

Of the other youngsters, Harkless was given a consistent role for the first time in the NBA and he delivered good production as a reserve before becoming a starter late in the year. Vonleh was up and down, but at only 20 years old he showed plenty of promise. Leonard continued to be inconsistent and closed the year injured, however at 7’1’’ with a good three point shot, he’s still an interesting young player.

Gerald Henderson was a token vet and somewhat of an afterthought in what was being considered the “Vonleh trade”. Playing solely as a reserve for the first time in years, Henderson delivered numbers in line with his career norms when you adjust for the decreased playing time. Beyond that, he was important locker room voice for the young roster.

Overall, Vonleh not breaking out and Leonard continuing his inconsistent play were the biggest negatives out of the entire roster. When two young big men, who tend to develop a little later than guards and wings, not having big seasons is your biggest concern, you’re probably in pretty good shape. That said the Blazers have some business to do this offseason to continue their rise up the standings. 

The first big question for Portland was actually answered, in part, last summer when Lillard agreed to a five-year maximum contract extension. Lillard signed using the 5th Year 30% Max Criteria, more commonly known as the Derrick Rose Rule. This meant that if Lillard qualified, he could sign for a higher starting salary amount than a player of his years of service is generally eligible for. By making the All-NBA team for a second time Lillard qualified, but what wasn’t known until that point was that he and the Blazers had agreed that he would only go as high as 27.5%. That saved the team a little over $2 million dollars this coming season, which will come in handy this summer. Beyond that, after seeing six key rotation pieces walk away, the Trail Blazers now have a young star signed for the foreseeable future.

With Lillard taken care of, Portland can turn their eyes towards completing the rest of the roster. With Aminu and Davis signed to extremely team friendly contracts, and McCollum, Plumlee, and Vonleh still on Rookie Scale deals, Portland has one of the best cap situations in the league for any playoff team. McCollum and Plumlee are both extension eligible this summer and Portland will likely have some discussion towards that end, especially with McCollum. They won’t rush in to anything, but locking up two young starters long term would be smart business if the terms are right.

Of the Trail Blazers own free agents; the team will have interest in returns for Crabbe, Harkless, Henderson and Leonard, most likely in that order. Crabbe has proven that he fits great in the backcourt rotation with Lillard and McCollum and he’s developing into one of the better shooters in the league. He’ll have a strong market, but as a restricted free agent, Portland will match anything but the craziest of offers. It won’t be a stretch to see Crabbe making between $10-12 million and possibly up to $15 million in the first year of his new deal.

Harkless is another player the Blazers would love to re-sign. He was very good when he was elevated to the starting lineup, providing an athletic defender and someone who was content to get garbage points without handling the ball a lot. His career arc fits in great with the rest of the roster and he projects to be a capable starter or energy guy off the bench. If he can continue to develop his jumper and add range, that would be so much the better. He’ll also be in demand as teams are always on the lookout for potential 3&D options, but Portland should be able to retain him. 

Behind the two young RFAs, Portland is interested in a return for Gerald Henderson. As covered, he was a good veteran voice and productive on the court. A one or two year deal makes sense, as Crabbe and Harkless take on more responsibility and Henderson’s impact on the court lessens.

Leonard is probably the biggest question mark of the free agents. He’s never developed in to the starting PF/C with range that the Blazers had hoped for. At this point, he’s become a less productive version of Channing Frye, in that he’s a big who seems allergic to playing inside at all and only wants to drift around the arc. That is fine when you can shoot like Frye does, but Leonard isn’t quite at that level. And his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Ideally, Portland would let him go and replace him with a better fit for the roster. 

As to who might make sense to replace Leonard, the Blazers are fortunate that the free agent market is stocked with options that fill what they need most: rim protection and rebounding. For all of Plumlee’s good work, he’s not a great rim protector or rebounder. He could benefit from a partner to aid him. Expect the Blazers to be linked with every available big man who ran both rebound and block some shots. Guys like Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside, Dwight Howard and Bismack Biyombo would all be excellent fits, but could be a bit out of the Portland price range. Lower tier options like Ian Mahinmi, Roy Hibbert (who the Blazers had interest in previously), Cole Aldrich, Joakim Noah or Zaza Pachulia all make sense too. RFAs like Festus Ezeli, DeWayne Dedmon and Boban Marjanovic could be targets also.

Finding a backup point guard is also something Portland would like to do. There are plenty of options this summer, including potentially bringing back Brian Roberts. If Crabbe departs adding a shooter off the bench would be necessary and players like Eric Gordon, Kevin Martin, or Wayne Ellington are backup plans.

In Olshey and Stotts, the Blazers are led by leaders who know what they want and go into the summer with a plan. Expect the Blazers to be one of the first teams out of the gate with signings. They prefer to come out and set the market vs. waiting to see how things develop. Many criticized the contracts they signed Aminu and Davis to, but they proved to be incredible values by the end of the offseason. Portland needs to add another big piece or two to challenge the Warriors, Spurs and Thunder, and they have the means to do so. Better yet, without having to deplete the roster to do so, things are on the rise for the Blazers.

Offseason Details 

Guaranteed Contracts (7): Al-Faroug Aminu, Pat Connaughton, Ed Davis, Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Mason Plumlee, Noah Vonleh

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (2): Cliff Alexander, Luis Montero

Potential Free Agents (6): Allen Crabbe (RFA), Maurice Harkless (RFA), Gerald Henderson (UFA), Chris Kaman (UFA), Meyers Leonard (RFA), Brian Roberts (UFA)

“Dead” Money on Cap (1): $1,984,005 (Anderson Varejao)

First Round Draft Picks: None

Maximum Cap Space: $40,040,003

Projected Cap Space: $14,358,236