Denver Nuggets
2004-2005 Prediction: 44-38, third in Northwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 49-33, second in Northwest Division

The Nuggets made no major moves over the summer, yet their backcourt has been transformed. ? Voshon Lenard returns from a major injury to be the deep threat Denver lacked last year?if he?s 100%.  Even if he?s not what he was in 2003-2004, the team can turn to Julius Hodge.  His shot is suspect, but he will score in transition and defend the length of the floor?that is, if he?s not in court.  At any rate, Greg Buckner won?t be starting most of their games at the two. ? Perhaps most important was the surprise signing of Earl Watson.  Pundits questioned the decision to ink a third point guard with an apparent need at the two, yet he?s a perfect fit for the Nuggets, who have one point guard?Earl Boykins?who is primarily a scorer and another?Andre Miller?who is a lousy defender.  Watson?s presence frees each player to focus on his strengths, while hiding each one?s weakness; alternatively, it frees up Miller to be traded. ? Carmelo Anthony might even find himself at shooting guard for stretches.  He is long enough and quick enough to learn the position defensively, and shooting guards wouldn?t have any more luck stopping him than small forwards do. ? The Nuggets are overflowing with capable performers at small forward whose roles will be better defined now that George Karl has better guards with which to work.  DerMarr Johnson defended both wing spots very well last year and could fill in at shooting guard if Lenard and Hodge fail.  Linas Kleiza is an unknown to me, but he is drawing attention for his aptitude to play either forward spot.  Eduardo Najera, too, is able to swing between small and power forward, though with obviously limited success; he?s good for a hustle play when you need one. ? Kenyon Martin caught heat for being of little significance to the Nuggets? offense in crunch time, but that?s as much the fault of point guards who seldom created opportunities for him as it is his own.  Nobody said he didn?t score enough for Jason Kidd and New Jersey.  Besides, what is his role here but to harass post scorers and bait them into traps wherein Marcus Camby sends their shots into the fourth row? ? For all his stretches of fine play and promise, Nene has yet to put together a consistent effort over a full season.  If he does, the Nuggets climb towards the league?s elite. ?

PG Miller/Watson/Boykins
SG Lenard/Hodge/Buckner
SF Anthony/Johnson/Kleiza/Russell
PF Martin/Nene/Najera
C Camby/Elson

2005-2006 Prediction: 50-32, first in Northwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Nuggets just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Nene?s continued growth and Anthony?s newfound commitment to defense gave the Nuggets a dominating frontcourt, led of course by DPOY Camby. ? Watson and Hodge took minutes from the incumbents and gave them the backcourt defense to match. ? Anthony shocked everyone and proved himself a worthy Bird to LeBron?s Magic with an otherworldly playoff performance. ? George Karl exorcised his playoff demons. ?

Wait, no, the Nuggets just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Injuries reclaimed Lenard, Johnson, Martin, and Camby. ? Miller, Watson, and Boykins constituted a duplication of talents in too many respects to save the backcourt from being both lit up and clamped down upon nightly. ? Attitude concerns surrounding Anthony resurfaced as what remained of the Nuggets roster sank in the loaded Western Conference. ?

Minnesota Timberwolves
2004-2005 Prediction: 57-25, first in Northwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 44-38, third in Northwest Division

Nobody questions jettisoning Sprewell and Cassell, but do they realize the Wolves need much more than those subtractions to improve? ...  This roster is utterly devoid of depth.  There is no backup center with NBA experience, .  Eddie Griffin is the only player I?d trust to bring off the bench, and that would be to play in place of a starter who is wholly untrustworthy?Michael Olowokandi, and such a substitution moves Kevin Garnett to center.  Injuries to Fred Hoiberg and even Nikoloz Tskitishvilli only make matters worse for the second unit. ? Garnett will log another season of heroics and absurd statistics, but a burnout or knee injury will only be expedited if he is forced to play major minutes at center. ? Considering the personnel?led by Troy Hudson, who is, according to Dan Rosenbaum, the worst defender to play major minutes in the NBA?Garnett should be a lock for DPOY if the Wolves rank anywhere but bottom-five defensively. ? Rashad McCants certainly won?t help the defense, and it?s questionable he has any one threat to sustain him as a scoring threat, either. ? Wally Szczerbiak and Trenton Hassell, at the very least, are in positions to thrive now that the Timberwolves no longer have to worry about feeding Sprewell?s family.  Both should post career years and be the subject of constant trade rumors. ? Marko Jaric stands to benefit playing with Garnett.  He enjoyed modest success having to create for himself and others with the Clippers.  Now, if he uses his size to slash or post up smaller guards, Garnett will reward him.  He is also a better shooter than he has exhibited in the preseason. ? No matter how bad it gets, the Timberwolves are not going to trade Kevin Garnett? not this year, anyway. ?

PG Jaric/Hudson/Chalmers
SG Hassell/McCants/Wright/Frahm
SF Szczerbiak/Griffin/Ebi
PF Garnett/Madsen/Humphrey/Tskitishvili
C Olowokandi/Jones

2005-2006 Prediction: 39-43, fourth in Northwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Timberwolves just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Jaric and Szczerbiak surpassed their career-highs in scoring by wide margins. ? Griffin looked less like an energetic sub and more like the lottery pick he once was, hitting jumpers and limiting turnovers while flying to dunks in transition. ? Garnett somehow managed to dwarf his previous accomplishments and posted one of the best seasons?and?postseasons in NBA history. ?

Wait, no, the Timberwolves just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Without Flip Saunders? zone defenses, the team was unable to disguise its lack of talent and gave up 110 points more nights than not. ? Garnett broke down under the weight of the frontline, the team, the very existence of basketball in Minnesota and missed half the season. ?

Portland Trail Blazers
2004-2005 Prediction: 42-40, fourth in Northwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 27-55, fourth in Northwest Division

Nate McMillan might already be worth the investment.  He represents a new era for the franchise, one which will command respect from players and exhibit professionalism to the public. ? Personnel turnover, new coach, and reliance on raw talent guarantee growing pains.  Only two spots, power forward and center, are manned by proven performers. ? Joel Przybilla has transformed his body and his game to become an athletic rebounder and shot-blocker, as well as a capable finisher in and around the paint.  In reserve, Theo Ratliff still ranks among the NBA?s elite defenders.  Zach Randolph returns to hold down the four and can be counted on for double-doubles most nights. ? Once Martell Webster takes the starting spot at shooting guard, he and Sebastian Telfair will probably be the youngest starting backcourt in NBA history.  Telfair has already shown flashes of what is to come: incredible vision and the aptitude to break down perimeters.  Now he must sharpen his passing skills, shoot consistently, and catch up defensively.  Webster joins the NBA as one of its deadliest shooters.  It has to be said, however: if he cannot get shots against quicker, stronger defenders, the skill on which he makes his name will be neutralized?then how exciting a prospect will he be?  He must prove able to score against and defend NBA twos. ? Drafting Jarrett Jack confused some, but it was simply a matter of a player being too good, too late in the draft, to pass up.  Jack strikes me as a can?t-miss pro, able to score, distribute, and defend, and he?ll get some run because Telfair suffers some dismal stretches. ? I?ll say this once more: Darius Miles is already a terrific NBA player.  Stop waiting for him to ?break out?, and start appreciating his top-notch defense and versatile, if inconsistent, offense. ? Speaking of breaking out, Travis Outlaw is everybody?s favorite for a big season, but he?s had considerable trouble picking up team play at both ends.  That, coupled with his limited stamina, mean he?ll receive too few minutes to post pretty numbers (fantasy players, take note), but he is sure to drop his share of jaws with his dunks and blocks. ? Russians Sergei Monia and Viktor Khryapa are impossible to project.  Both are noted for their versatile skill-sets, but I?m going to guess McMillan goes with the better shooters?Webster, Charles Smith, Juan Dixon?at shooting guard and the better defenders?Miles and Patterson?to fill the forward minutes, leaving them buried in the depth chart. ? Speaking of Juan Dixon, I?ve already complained ad nauseum that he was a useless signing.  Having a good character veteran around is fine, but Smith and Steve Blake more than suffice to push the youngsters in practice.  Dixon, who attended the Allen Iverson School of Practice Enthusiasm, has a three-year contract to do what, exactly?  Please tell me it?s not to start at shooting guard. ? A good season for the Trail Blazers will be measured less by wins than by the growth of the projected franchise talents of the future.  If these youngsters haven?t improved much by April, the anxiety associated with missing the playoffs three straight seasons will set in, and impatience will rear its ugly head. ?

PG Telfair/Jack/Blake
SG Webster/Smith/Dixon
SF Miles/Outlaw/Monia
PF Randolph/Patterson/Khryapa
C Przybilla/Ratliff/Ha

2005-2006 Prediction: 24-58, fifth in Northwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Trail Blazers just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Healthy seasons for Randolph and Ratliff, along with continued improvement from Przybilla and the second coming of Andrei Kirilenko?Khryapa?allowed the Blazers to dominate inside at both ends. ? The young backcourt held its own, thanks to the Kidd-like vision of Telfair, the sweet strokes of Juan Dixon and Webster, and the frequent flights of Outlaw and Miles. ? In short, improbable career years by everybody on the roster. ?

Wait, no, the Trail Blazers just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
McMillan was patient (to a fault?), as the NBA?s greenest team was frequently baffled, sometimes exciting, but always overmatched. ?

Seattle Supersonics
2004-2005 Prediction: 33-49, fifth in Northwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 52-30, first in Northwest Division

A repeat of last season is improbable, but let?s not overestimate the Sonics? losses, either.  Antonio Daniels and his defense will be missed, for sure.  Rick Brunson and Ronald Murray are poor defenders, but at the other end they can replace his ability to protect the ball (Brunson) and his propensity for upping the tempo (Murray).  On the other hand ?upping the tempo? is generally a euphemism for ?chucking up quick shots? with Murray, and other than Mike Dunleavy, nobody has ever given Brunson enough minutes to utilize his steady hand.  Luke Ridnour, meanwhile, will be forced into increased minutes.  He has answered questions about his defense and athleticism while knocking down open threes and taking advantage of the holes afforded by the Sonics? capacity to spread the court, but might he wear down in another 82-game season? ? It always seems tough to lose capable big men, but Jerome James will be long forgotten sooner than the pessimists might think.  Increased minutes for Nick Collison and Danny Fortson can easily replace his positives, and Mikki Moore and even the raw Robert Swift and Johan Petro can swat aimlessly at shots as well as James could at his worst.  Collison, as a rookie, was one of the league?s best defenders and will be eased into greater offensive responsibility.  If the Sonics can get away with starting the 6?9? Collison at center, they?ll actually be getting better production in the middle than they got from James; if Collison can?t play extended minutes at center, the Sonics are in big trouble, at least until Vitaly Potapenko is healthy enough to resume his role of taking up space. ? Damien Wilkins was a pleasant surprise as an undrafted, 24-year-old rookie.  He, Murray, and Vladimir Radmanovic ensure the Sonics have complementary firepower in reserve. ? Ray Allen is still Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis is now an All-Star level player, although neither is noted for defensive prowess.  Together they will carry the Sonics back into the playoffs. ?

PG Ridnour/Brunson
SG Allen/Wilkins/Murray
SF Lewis/Radmanovic
PF Evans/Fortson
C Collison/Moore/Petro/Swift/Potapenko

2005-2006 Prediction: 43-39, second in Northwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Sonics just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Collison?s permanent move to center, and the opening up of minutes for Fortson and Moore, solidified the interior and dramatically improved the Sonics? defense. ? Radmanovic, playing for a contract, gave some semblance of an effort to run the floor and defend, and he reversed the slide of his shooting percentages, too. ? After creeping into the playoffs, Allen bettered last year?s postseason heroics and single-handedly overcome the other contenders. ?

Wait, no, the Sonics just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Losing Daniels proved devastating.  Turnovers and holes in the perimeter defense meant not even the Sonics All-Star wings could outscore their opponents. ? A cast of thousands was unable to man the center spot with any consistency, while Collison, Evans, and Fortson were wasting fighting for minutes at the same position. ? Radmanovic and Murray carried their woeful preseason returns into the regular season. ? As much as the Sonics hated to admit it, they missed the discipline of Nate McMillan. ?

Utah Jazz
2004-2005 Prediction: 48-34, second in Northwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 26-56, fifth in Northwest Division

2004-2005 was a monumental disappointment for the Jazz, whose free agent acquisitions were expected to push an overachieving team from the year before into the upper half of the Western Conference playoffs.  Injuries to Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer decimated the frontcourt, while instability plagued the point guard spot.  Injuries remain the preeminent concern; neither Boozer nor Matt Harpring has played in the preseason. ? A complete season from Kirilenko would erase all but one (namely, point guard) of last season?s flaws because Kirilenko can play three positions at an elite level.  The Jazz defense will be solid as long as he is in the lineup. ? Trading up for Portland?s #3 pick was a no-brainer; it cost the Jazz only a late first rounder, and it netted them the perfect Jerry Sloan point guard.  Deron Williams brings tenacious pressure defense, heady distribution, and sufficient athleticism to a position which killed the Jazz a year ago, and he has surprised with his shooting in the preseason, a facet which should give Sloan confidence in his half-court game. ? Devin Brown and C.J. Miles can safely be filed under ?needed depth? because neither is going to help the Jazz much on the court this year.  Gordan Giricek must do enough defensively to stay out of Sloan?s doghouse because the Jazz desperately need his perimeter stroke. ? Harpring, puzzlingly enough, has avoided Sloan?s wrath despite rarely playing passable defense.  His transition hustle and smart offense are enough to keep him in Sloan?s good graces, it seems. ? Mehmet Okur thrived when given minutes last season and deserves the full-time starting gig at center.  He is a consistently good shooter, especially from the free throw line, and is not the defensive liability some think.  He won?t be shutting down Shaq anytime soon, but his length, Boozer?s strength, and Kirilenko?s leaping should allow the Jazz to control the glass most nights.  The return of Greg Ostertag and the emergence of surprising Robert Whaley give the Jazz options for toughness off the bench, provided neither is forced into a starting role anytime soon (nor Jarron Collins, for that matter). ? If Utah sneaks into the playoffs, nobody will want to face them. ?

PG Williams/McLeod/Palacio
SG Giricek/Brown/Miles
SF Kirilenko/Harpring
PF Boozer/Collins/Humphries
C Okur/Ostertag/Whaley

2005-2006 Prediction: 42-40, third in Northwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2005 and the Jazz just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Sneak into the playoffs?  Hardly.  The Jazz stayed healthy and pulled off the most impressive year-to-year defensive turnaround ever seen. ? After coasting to the division title, the Jazz brushed aside two offensive juggernauts?Phoenix, Golden State?to reach the West Finals, at which point timely hot shooting from several contributors and a string of game-changing performances from Finals MVP Kirilenko allowed the Jazz to save their ?sneaking by? for series wins against the Spurs and Pistons. ?

Wait, no, the Jazz just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Boozer and Harpring never got right. ? Shooting guard was a mess, as Kirilenko was stuck playing power forward and so was unable to cover for Utah?s pitiful defense from the wings. ? The preseason proved an aberration for Williams, who shot poorly and was only average defending elite NBA point guards. ? The Jazz failed to post thirty wins again, and Sloan started mulling retirement. ?