When Danny Ainge made the deals for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the summer of 2007 ? doesn?t that already seem like ancient history? ? the general impression was given that Ainge thought the team might need a year to gel and that 2009 would be the year to make a claim for an NBA title. To the surprise of many, including this author, the C's came together almost magically and dominated the league en route to flag no. 17. At the time it seemed the window for championships for this team would extend at least two or three more seasons. With an extraordinary 27-4 start to the 2008-09 season, everything seems set for another run on titles lasting at least two or three more years. And with the brilliant Danny Ainge at the helm, perhaps longer.

But looks can be deceiving. Because RealGM is a website dedicated to serious fans who are concerned with the architecture of teams, allow me to provide my take on where the C's are right now in the larger scheme of things and what options face Danny Ainge.

Lost in the excitement and drama of last season, the charisma of the star players, the general consistent intensity of the team?s defensive play, and the spectacular start to the 2008-09 season, there have been some potentially ominous signs. Mostly, they have to do with the proverbial Big Three. We all knew that they were at a point in their careers where their games would diminish, but with superstars it is hard to know when that point would arrive exactly. Some players continue at a high level well into their mid-30s, like Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, John Stockton, John Havlicek, Reggie Miller, and Karl Malone. Others, like Charles Barkley, Dave Cowens, David Robinson, Shaq, Kevin McHale, and Shawn Marion, head south in their early 30s. It is almost impossible to predict although pundits have 20-20 hindsight.

As I said, lost in the glow of the title there were some troubling signs with the Big Three last year that have continued into 2009. Kevin Garnett was no longer one of the top three to five players in the game in 2008, which he had been for the much of the previous decade. He was a dominant defender with a lovely mid-range jump shot, but his once Rodman-like rebounding had slipped a notch or two. This trend continues into the current season, where he is now settled in one of the top 10-12 players in the game and heading south. This is an underappreciated development. As I have demonstrated elsewhere, teams that win titles tend to be led by a player who ranks among the 3-5 best in the game at the time. It is not always true; it holds around 80-85 percent most of the time. But those are not great odds when the Eastern Conference has players-for-the-ages studs like LeBron James and Dwight Howard leading 60 plus win teams into the playoffs. As Garnett gets further and further away from the status of a top 5 player, the C's chances of winning titles decline unless someone else rises to fill the breech.

Ray Allen?s play in 2008 was well below his career standards, much more so than KG. His dreadful play in the Atlanta and Cleveland playoff series almost cost the C's the title and suggested he might be washed up. Fortunately, he found his groove deep into the conference finals and then in the finals, or else the C's would have not won the title. His play has improved this season with better health even though he is not at the level of his prime. And Paul Pierce, too, circa 2008-09, is a notch below the Paul Pierce of his 20s. Allen and Pierce are still fine players, but they rank in the top 30-40 now, rather than the top 10-20, where they resided for much of their careers. If Allen and Pierce remained at the primes, KG?s decline would be less significant. They are all such fine players that even their combined slippage does not prevent the C's from being a great team. But the question is not whether this is a 60 win team ? it is -- it is whether this team will win the 2009 NBA championship.

Coming into the 2008-09 season, the C's task of repeating was perhaps more daunting than was widely acknowledged by exuberant fans, basking in the pleasure of being at the top. It was more than simply the Big Three showing their age. Ainge had decided to let James Posey walk and see if Tony Allen, Eddie House, Big Baby Davis, and Leon Powe could pick up the slack. It was not an unreasonable move, as Posey?s salary was long and large and would have been a burden in 2011 when the C's might be in a position to get well under the salary cap. Moreover, Powe, T. Allen, and Davis are young and could see significant improvement. But, at any rate, the C's had lost a major piece, and its star players were a year deeper into their 30s. At this point, 1/3 of the way into the season, Ainge has lost that gamble. Powe and  T. Allen have had their moments, but neither has been consistent. Powe looked like a Paul Millsap type in the closing two months of the 2008 season. This year, he only plays like that periodically. T. Allen still plays out of control far too often for a fifth year player. At some point one must wonder if he will ever get it. Davis has been a major disappointment. Other than playing solid position defense in the low post, he does little of particular value. Eddie House still cannot play the point especially well, to the point that turnover machine Tony Allen sometimes assumes those duties when they are on the floor together. House is a hustling streak shooter who is of limited value if his shot is not falling. The Celtics' bench this year has been a disappointment. Right now it looks like Danny rolled the dice and lost.  

The key to compensating for a declining Big Three and a disappointing bench has come from dramatic improvements from the two remaining starters Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, age 24 and 22, respectively. Much of the optimism about the C's prospects this season rests upon their improved play. Perkins has evolved into one of the best interior defenders in the NBA and will possibly begin an annual trip to the All-Defensive team this year. His offense has improved as well, and he is a credible option at the low post. He now ranks as one of the 10-12 best centers in the league. If he can consistently make the 12-15 foot wide-open shot, which he is invariably granted by the opposing team, and which most comparable NBA centers learn to shoot, he can possibly make an All-Star team or two down the road. But that will not happen this year.

Rondo, of course, is the main source of optimism and excitement among C's fans, not only for this season, but for the coming decade and the post big-three era. His game has improved dramatically as a point guard and has, therefore, made the offense far more effective. He has become a credible offensive force with his drives to the hoop. And he is a superior defender although a tad reckless at times. When Rondo is on his game, the C's can, and will, play with anyone in the league and beat anyone in the league. So far, he seems to play his game better at home than on the road. Anyway one slices it, Rondo is arguably no less than the second or third best player on the team, and he may well be the most important player on the team in short order. His ascension has been breathtaking.

One can project Rondo as an All-Star already this season and possibly as an All-Pro in the future. His talent is that enormous. But, he has two major limitations. These limitations may be overcome down the road, but they are going to persist through this season and next. First, he still plays a bit out of control, and that translates into unnecessary turnovers and lost scoring opportunities. This is a function of age and experience and the price one pays with a young point guard. Second, and more importantly, Rondo cannot hit the wide-open shot, even from 12 or 15 feet, in games. He has no confidence. His free throw shooting is also dismally deficient. Nor can he hit the pull-up 12-15 foot jump shot in games, which is available to him every time down the court as no team in the league dares to guard him closely until he is in the lane. I say ?in games? because Rondo apparently nails these shots, out to the three-point line, in practice. He simply lacks confidence. Rondo?s talent is so prodigious that this unwillingness to take open shots does not cause serious problems against most opponents. But when playing the great teams of the league in the playoffs, it will possibly prove fatal.

And this leads to the other great problem facing Danny Ainge and the C's as they attempt to repeat: the other top teams in the league are better, much better, than they were last year. Doc Rivers is not blowing CoachSpeak when he says the Celtics have to improve dramatically to win again in 2009. The Lakers are a tremendous team, clearly worthy of a crown. The Cavaliers are a frighteningly good team, with the best player in the game today and arguably the someone who will be regarded as greatest player of all time. If the Celtics do somehow defeat these two teams to win a title in 2009, the C's will have had as difficult a challenge in the playoffs as any team in Celtics' history. It will be an astounding accomplishment. It is not unlike the early 80s when Philly and the Lakers each had exceptional teams standing in the C's way. And the Magic are looking like a 60 win team this year and for years to come. If the C's do not get the home court advantage in the east and have to go through Orlando and Cleveland en route to LA, their chances of getting flag no. 18 are, to be frank, not encouraging. The degree of difficulty this year is very high, a 19 game winning streak notwithstanding.

So that brings us to Danny Ainge?s dilemmas. I use the plural, because Danny has a complex set of demands upon him. He is commissioned to win now while the team is a legitimate contender first and foremost. In this capacity, Danny needs to address the immediate problems facing the team: Its woeful bench which lacks a back-up point guard who can run an offense, or a ?big? who stands over 6-6 in his bare feet, or a forward who can have some prayer of staying with a big 3 like LeBron, not to mention Rashard Lewis. Danny has few resources to use to improve the roster. There are no future no. 1 picks to deal until 2012, and such a pick has little value. (Not to mention, Danny likes to keep his picks. Red Auerbach?s first commandment was Thou Shalt Not Trade Future No. 1 Picks.) And the marginal young players on the C's roster have little current trade value, but they do have some upside so the C's are wise to keep them. Hence Danny is pretty much reduced to signing players who are retired like Dikembe Mutombo and P.J. Brown and Jason Williams or who might get bought out by their current teams, like, we hope, Joe Smith of the Thunder. Danny must do something, anything within reason, to give this team a better shot at succeeding in the playoffs this season.

But he is also responsible for attempting to extend the current window as a legitimate contender for as long as possible, so he has to determine at what point the C's are no longer legitimate contenders. When does the so-called ?window? shut? As this season winds down, and in the summer of 2009, this will be the dominant story in Celticsland. Should the C's win flag no. 18 this year, Danny will almost certainly only tweak the roster and go for a three-peat in 2010. Or if the C's lose in the 2009 playoffs, but Rondo?s brilliant development convinces Danny that he can be an All-Pro as soon as next year, that he can be the best player on a championship team, then he would stay the course, as well.  (This is not as far-fetched as it would have seemed only three months ago, but the odds are still at best 1 in 10, as it requires among other things for Rondo to become an effective and consistent shooter.)

But should the C's lose in the playoffs and look old in the process, and should the immediate horizon seem to have a handful of very good rising teams equal or superior to the C's, Danny will face a major dilemma. Does he try to tweak the team with an MLE signing -- say, for sake of discussion, Ben Gordon for a five-year $35 million deal ? and hope the team can rally for one more title while the Big Three are still quality players? Then get another MLE guy in the summer of 2010. The downside with that approach, aside from luxury tax implications, is that he ties up the team with several long-term deals for average players and kills any salary cap flexibility for years. (As a worst case scenario of this approach, consider the Knicks' roster littered with Jerome James and Jared Jeffries.)  It also keeps the team good enough to avoid getting a top draft pick.

The other course for Danny is to deconstruct the team, get under the cap, get some draft picks, and reconstruct the team around Rondo, Perkins, and an aging KG come 2011.

This is going to be a difficult situation for Danny if they fail to win the title in 2009. (If they do win in 2009, the issue will be postponed for a year.) The path of least resistance will be to try to patch up the show and hope for a little luck and another title behind the Big Three and Rondo in 2010. The sportswriters will all approve and so will much of the fan base. The owners will make money, and the C's will be on national TV frequently. At best, they can be like the Pistons have been for the past three or four years. But the downside of such an approach is to become like the C's from 1988-93: A team playing out the string and just postponing the inevitable collapse without a legitimate chance at winning a title. If Danny milks the 2008 title to simply have a nice team for the next three or four years only to have the C's return to the NBA basement for the balance of the 2010s, they may come to regret having won the title in 2008.

Knowing what we do about Danny Ainge, it is unlikely he will settle for the path of least resistance. My educated guess is that the moment he determines the team does not have a realistic chance of winning a title, that minor tweaking or a trade or an MLE free agent cannot fix the problem, he will implement a comprehensive plan to retool. The refusal to sign James Posey in 2008 was an indication that Danny is not going to sacrifice the future for the present. As much as Danny loves the C's tradition, I don?t think he would have any qualms about trading anyone on the roster ? anyone ? if he thought it would improve the team?s chances of ultimately returning to legitimate contention. I cannot imagine him letting the Big Three have a victory lap around the league from 2010 to 2012, similar to Larry, Chief, and Kevin in the early 90s. I could imagine Danny trading Ray Allen as an expiring contract, or doing whatever it takes to get under the cap and soon.  I could see Danny being willing to dip into the lottery for two seasons (a la 2006 and 2007) to get the chips necessary to put together a contender. In short, I think the historical record suggests Danny will move aggressively with a plan; he is not going to rest on the 2008 championship to go into a gradual decline like the British Empire. He wants to stay on top, and he has demonstrated a record of taking the long view strategically.

Now, of course, if the C's win another flag in 2009, or Rondo emerges the second or third best point guard in the NBA, such thinking may be moot, at least for another year or two. But I suspect that this is precisely the thought process going on through Danny?s head although perhaps in somewhat different terms.

One indication of how Danny is always thinking two moves ahead is to look at the C's current roster. For a team that has just won a title and is a serious contender for another one in 2009, it is an astonishingly young roster. Take away the Big Three and this is one of the youngest teams in the league. There are nine players 26 or younger. Danny Ainge signed a long-term project in Patrick O?Bryant rather than bring in a crusty veteran to provide bench power. He likes to develop young players, either to become players or to be used in trades.

Danny has some major issues to determine in the short term as he attempts to put together the strongest possible team for the 2009 playoffs and for the future course of the franchise once those playoffs have ended. Aside from the games themselves, which are a source of incalculable pleasure to watch, watching Danny guide the franchise is a source of fascination and pleasure. Just like when Red was at the helm, we have a grandmaster with his hands on the wheel. It is a good time to be a Celtics' fan, even if treacherous waters lie not too far ahead.