When the Celtics were eliminated in the second round of the NBA playoffs, it merely answered the question ?when,? not ?if.? Without KG, without the underappreciated Leon Powe, with a bench made up of people who could not get in the rotation a year ago, and with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen a year older, this was a heroic team playing on fumes. Had the Cs somehow defeated Orlando, the picture against Cleveland likely would have been ugly.

Now all attention turns immediately to the future, the near future. This is Danny Ainge?s prime time, his playoffs. Can the Celtics win the 2010 NBA title with the current roster? What can Danny do this off-season to improve the roster?

Before answering these questions, a little context is necessary. LeBron James is 24 and Dwight Howard is 23. Their teams are going to be powerhouses next year and for the next half-decade. There are other teams in the east that are improving. Even if Danny fields a very strong team, even if he does his job brilliantly, he may have trouble just getting to the Eastern Conference Finals, even the second round of the playoffs. The bar is very high. The Cs now are in the situation faced by the superb Sidney Moncrief Milwaukee Bucks teams of the early 1980s: no matter how well they played the Celtics and Sixers were always a tad better. Had that Bucks team been assembled in the late 70s, it might have won two or three titles. In the early 80s it got lost in the shuffle. That could well be the Cs fate for the next two or three years.

So if the goal is to actually defeat Cleveland and Orlando and the other rising teams, not simply win 54 games and make it a round or two in the playoffs, Danny has his work cut out for him. As we learned this year, he will need more than a little luck.

There are six big questions that face the current roster, which I present in descending order of importance.

1A. Can Kevin Garnett return at 100 percent, and what is Kevin Garnett?s 100 percent at age 33?

As has been amply demonstrated, teams that win NBA titles and teams that even reach the Finals generally have a superstar, a player who would rank among the top 5 players in the game leading them. Look at the final four in 2009: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Chauncey Billups are the best players on their respective teams. The first three are among the five best players in the league and do rank (or very possibly will rank in the case of Howard) among the 15 best players in basketball history.

KG was that caliber of player for much of his career, and that is why his presence was the foundation of the 2008 championship team. But now there are reasons to be concerned about his health. Maybe he comes back from this knee injury, but other problems may await. As Charles Barkley put it in his inimitable fashion, ?at a certain point, in their 30s, guys don?t get rested and healthy, they just get older.?

The upside is that Garnett has the body type of a player whose game should extend many more years. But that being said, KG?s game has already declined while in Boston, his knee injury notwithstanding. His rebounding, getting to the free throw line, general offense, have declined. He was once a top 5 player in the league; now he is more like a top 10 or top 15 player, and he is heading in the wrong direction. But even a top 15 KG will be necessary for the Cs to win a title.

1B. Just how much will Rajon Rondo improve?

If KG is on the downside of his career, Rajon Rondo is moving at warp speed in the opposite direction. Perhaps the most exciting development in the 08-09 regular season was watching Rondo improve. Then he exploded in the Bulls series as if to say, ?introducing the NBA?s next great superstar.? For the Cs to truly be able to kick Cleveland?s or Orlando?s tails in 2010 and thereafter, Rondo is going to have to become a top 10 player in the league. That means he has to improve his shooting, finish stronger, use his left hand better. Rondo is an astonishing talent; he could become a top 5 player for the next decade, one of the two best point guards in a point guard rich league, or he could be a top 25-30 player, another very good all-star player in a league full of very good players. If Rondo develops close to the former, the current Cs have a chance to win more titles; if he tends toward the latter position, history shows their chances are close to nil. If Rondo cannot be the best player on a championship team, there is no one else on the Cs roster, barring a KG miracle trip to the Fountain of Youth, up to the job. And those guys are very hard to find.

3. Just how are Paul Pierce and Ray Allen aging?

Pierce and Allen both had solid seasons, and gave the Cs everything they could have hoped for. Ironically, Paul made second team all-NBA and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for the first time in his career. I say ironically because Pierce is not the talent he was a few years ago. He has tremendous veteran savvy but he is no longer as explosive or dangerous. In large sections of the playoffs he looked old and tired, and had difficulty drawing fouls, the hallmark of his game. Ray Allen had a better regular season in 08-09 than he did in 07-08. But in the playoffs, again, he went ice cold for an extended period. A younger Ray Allen would have taken the tight coverage of a JJ Redick ? never confused with Michael Cooper -- and blown by him to the hole or have drawn a foul. Those moments are less frequent, if not entirely gone.

Paul and Ray must keep their games at this level for another year. They need to play fewer minutes in the regular season, even if it costs the Cs a few wins. Both of them are at a critical juncture in their careers, as they will be 32 and 34 respectively next season, and each is looking at a contract extension. Danny will want to be thinking now about what to do as they continue to decline. But we should be OK for 2009-10.

4. How much better can Perkins and Big Baby get?

The other two great revelations of the 2009 playoffs, besides Rondo, were Kendrick Perkins and Glen ?Big Baby? Davis. I assume the Cs will re-sign the 23 year-old Davis ? he is a restricted free agent. Perkins is only 24 and has improved tremendously over the past two years. He is now a plus rebounder and a superb defender. He has become a decent offensive player and gives indications that he might get to a 15 ppg level at his peak. Perkins right now is a top 10 center in the NBA, and health permitting, will more than hold his own in the pivot for the next seven-ten years. He is a workaholic. Danny and Doc must feel like they know what they are getting at the 5 spot, and it is good.

Big Baby is the wild card. He has good court sense, is surprisingly nimble and athletic for his size, and has developed a solid mid-range shot. In the playoffs he did not look out of place as a starting forward. He should be a rotation player for years to come. But there are reasons to believe he may be close to his ceiling. He is at most 6-7 and has little lift or explosion. He is slaughtered by tall 4s who can shoot. (He has more success bodying up guys in the post.) He is a poor, even terrible, rebounder for a 4. The one unknown about Davis is how could he develop if he shed 20 pounds and really worked on his conditioning? There is a chance he would elevate his game to a much higher level, especially on the offensive end. He could even be a legitimate 20 ppg guy. But so far that is a hypothetical discussion. Right now it seems like what we have seen is what we will get.

5. Can Leon Powe return?

Had Leon Powe not injured his knee, there is a decent chance Boston would have defeated Orlando, and not require seven games to dispatch the Bulls. Powe is a superior low post scorer, interior banger, general tough guy, and rebounder. He was the polar opposite of Brian Scalabrine. Lost on the playoff shuffle was the fact that most Cs observers considered Powe a more valuable player than Big Baby going into the playoffs. This year's playoffs might have been Leon?s coming out party had he not torn up his knee.

Alas, the knee. I assume the Cs will re-sign the restricted free agent Leon, but it is unclear how much he will contribute in 2010. It may be 2010-11 before he is really back to 100 percent, and given his history with major knee injuries we cannot help but wonder what 100 percent will mean. This much is certain: If Leon comes back as the same player he was, he will be a crucial rotation player for the Cs who will be instrumental in the team?s success.

6. Can any of Bill Walker, J.R. Giddens, Gabe Pruitt, or Semih Erden emerge as rotation players?

When it comes to assessing talent, Danny is as good as anyone, and these are four guys who Danny picked in the draft. If any of them are going to make it in the NBA, they ought to be able to force their way into rotation minutes by next season. The odds are longest for Pruitt, who has already had two years to demonstrate he can play. The upside with Pruitt is that he has the tools to be a very good defender, capable of guarding either 1s or 2s. The downside is that he can?t shoot. Everyone calls him a shooter, and he has nice form, but his shots rarely go through the hoop. At some point style points have to be replaced with actual points, and there is no reason to think Pruitt is going to make that leap. Unless he does he has no shot at an NBA career, because he is never going to be a great playmaker. I do not like his chances at all.

I am similarly pessimistic about Giddens, but his chances are better than Pruitt?s because he has only been in the league for one season. Giddens has all the tools to be a successful wing. He has tremendous length, good athleticism, and a nose for the ball. If he played in the backcourt with Rondo it would be, without doubt, the greatest rebounding backcourt in NBA history. It would outrebound nearly any set of starting forwards in the league. But, alas, Giddens apparently had trouble picking up the system. Doc as much as said that the guy is clueless. Let?s hope Giddens can overcome the problem, but don?t bank on it.

Semih Erden was the Cs 2nd round pick in 2008. He is a 22 year-old 7 footer from Turkey. Erden has good NBA-level athletic ability. When Danny selected him, he said Erden was, in effect, the team?s 2009 no. 1 pick. But nearly all the reports of people who watch Erden play in Europe say he is a head case who has little or no chance of making it in the NBA. Let?s hope Danny proves them wrong, but we should not bank on it.

Walker is the pick of the litter for now. He demonstrated toughness and great athletic ability. Plus his head was clearly in the game. All indications are that he is a very serious athlete committed to improving. It was wonderful how he managed to get under the skin of opposing players. What Walker needs to show is that he has the handle and shot and general offensive game to justify minutes. If he does, he could play next year. A year from now we could be waxing enthusiastically about Walker as a coming star; he has that much ability. The downside with Walker is that, like Powe, he has a history of serious knee injuries.

So those are the questions about our existing roster, and the answers will go a long way toward determining the course of the 2009-10 season.

But Danny has a pretty big toolkit to use to improve the roster for next season. He will have at least one open slot to fill (nice knowing you, Mikki Moore), and possibly a few more depending upon the fates of Marbury, Pruitt, House, Giddens, and Tony Allen among others.

Danny played it safe a year ago, letting Posey go and not signing a replacement with MLE money, and then got the short end of the stick when he nabbed Mikki Moore just before the deadline this season.

We should expect Danny to be far more active this off-season. It is obvious the team has serious needs and there will be players available who will be able to meet them.

Danny?s Toolkit, in descending order of importance/likelihood:

1. The MLE: Danny has the full mid-level exemption to play with. This means around $5.5 million annual salary for up to five seasons with a 10 percent annual raise. There are many very good veteran free agents available, and we should expect Danny to make a play for one of them. Some of the names to be considered: Shawn Marion, Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza, the list goes on and on. Danny can split the MLE among more than one player. Wyc Grousbeck will have to be willing to swallow luxury tax implications with this signing, but my hunch is he will give the greenlight.

2. The LLE: This is the smaller free agent exemption. The Cs can sign a player to up to a two-year deal at $2 million plus per year. This is a good slot for a deep bench guy or for a player like Marbury. It is also a slot that can be used to roll the dice on a younger unproven prospect. The Cs may keep this line open to use on a mid-season waiver wire pick-up.

3. Purchasing a draft pick (or two): Danny has made obscure draft day deals or flat out purchased picks several times over the past few years. Rondo, Powe and Walker all came though such machinations. This year the likelihood seems good the Cs will buy at least one pick. It is a lousy draft so teams may be more inclined to sell picks, even no. 1 picks, plus the crappy economy has many teams seeking hard cold cash. The Cs do not have a pick until no. 58 overall, and Danny probably has eyeballed one or two guys he really wants. There are diamonds even in the worst draft classes. But even if Danny and Wyc do buy a pick, the player will likely not contribute in 2010. This will be for the long-term.

4. Expiring contracts I: The Cs have several contracts that expire in 2010, for players of marginal value to the team: Scalabrine; Tony Allen; Eddie House, if he does not opt to become a free agent; Gabe Pruitt. Many teams are desperate to dump long-term contracts, either to get under the cap for the 2010 free agent market or to simply save money. The Cs could get into this market to score a veteran player and/or to get a future no. 1 pick. (e.g. Scal and Tony Allen could probably net Nazr Mohammed and a future no. 1 from Charlotte.) This option is dependent upon Wyc Grousbeck?s willingness to assume more salary. If he is, the Cs should be able to tango.

5. Expiring contracts II: Ray Allen?s deal also expires in 2010. I think the chances are very high that he stays in Boston and re-ups to finish his career with the Cs. However, if Danny thinks he needs to really make a big deal to win a title in 2010, it is possible he could make a deal for Ray. There would be some teams eager to have a contract that expired in 2010 and also get a very valuable player who could bring supreme veteran leadership to the locker room. If Danny does deal Ray, it will likely be a blockbuster deal.

6. Trading a future no. 1 pick (or two): This violates Red Auerbach?s First Commandment, but sometimes rules are made to be broken. It may be that Danny will be able to get a talented player by giving up one or two future no. 1 picks. It would have to bring back tremendous value, but it is an option. The Cs window with the ?Big Three? is brief, and if two no. 1 picks along with expiring contracts nabs another veteran all-star still in his prime, a la what the Lakers did for Pau Gasol, Danny would have to do it.

The season is over. Long live the new season. Your turn, Danny.