Why Kentucky losing to UConn really was a Surprise

Prior to Saturday Night’s game I plotted Kentucky’s raw efficiency margin (raw offense minus raw defense) in every game.  But rather than show the games in order, I decided to plot raw efficiency margin relative to each opponent’s Pomeroy Rank.  On the far left is the game against Ohio St. (ranked #1 by Pomeroy.)  On the far right is the game against Mississippi Valley St. (ranked 310^th by Pomeroy).

Prior to Saturday Night, Kentucky lost eight times, so there were only eight dots below 0.  And as many people noted, Kentucky’s worst performance of the year (the lowest dot) came against UConn in the championship game in Maui.  One of the other interesting things in the table is that it basically fits what we expect.  When Kentucky played against good teams (ranked 1-100) the margins were close and the games were tight.  When Kentucky played against bad teams (ranked above 100), Kentucky won by a big margin.

One thing we seek to do when we “adjust for opponent and venue” is flatten out this picture.  And that is what I do in the next picture.  I present the adjusted efficiency margin for Kentucky in each game:

What I find remarkable about the second picture, is that other than the Maui loss, Kentucky consistently played its best games against the best opponents on its schedule.  If you look at the far left (the top 25 games), all but the Connecticut game was a dominant performance.  And the first Connecticut game felt unrepresentative.  Kentucky had no depth and was playing the third game in three days.  They were very young and playing early in the season.

Let me put it another way.  After December 1^st, Kentucky went 7-2 against teams in the top 25 of the Pomeroy Rankings, and the two losses were on the road, both by two points.  Kentucky saved its best performances for its best quality opponents and I expected no less on Saturday. 

So how could Kentucky lose a game when they forced 11 steals and made 8 more threes than their opponent?  I cannot come to any other conclusion than the one Seth Davis mentioned in the post game show.  Brandon Knight decided to become one of the world’s biggest shot hogs, on a night when he couldn’t make anything.  Knight went a miserable 5 for 22 from the field prior to his garbage time buzzer beater.  We should have seen it coming based on what had happened previously in the tournament.  No high volume shooter in the Final Four had a lower efficiency rate than Brandon Knight.

Knight was not the only Kentucky player to have a bad day.  But at some point, the team needed to make a concerted effort to get the ball to its two most efficient players, Josh Harrelson and Doron Lamb.  Certainly UConn’s defense had a large part to do with Kentucky’s offensive struggles.  But I harken back to something I jotted down in the first half.  UConn was turning it over quite a bit, but I thought they could live with the turnovers, because UConn was getting easy looks inside.  They weren’t settling for jumpers, they were settling for lay-ups.  11 of the first 13 baskets for UConn were in the painted area.

I feel like too many teams in college basketball have turned into Wisconsin.  They realize that possessions are so valuable, they refuse to be aggressive with the basketball.  They settle for forced jumpers instead of “risking” a turnover while trying to get the ball inside.  In the last 10 games, Connecticut has realized the value of being aggressive.  And on Saturday, Kentucky seemed to forget.

VCU Falls and Rule Changes

How many people thought when VCU was 4 of 8 from three point range, and forcing turnovers at a pretty high clip that they were going to roll to a victory again?  But give Butler credit.  They took control of the tempo, and slowly imposed their defensive will.  Last Monday I emphasized Khyle Marshall’s incredible offensive rebounding, and he seemed to turn the game around in the first half with three key offensive rebounds.  (Marshall ended up with five offensive rebounds in the game.)  And Shelvin Mack continued his incredible scoring.

But the VCU – Butler game reminded me why we were spoiled in this tournament.  The Elite Eight was one of the most exciting rounds in recent memory.  But in the Final Four we finally got a game with needless fouling and needless timeouts at the end.  People often write about what they would change about college basketball.  My wife’s suggestion is pretty clear.  She would limit the number of timeouts.  She points out that in the NHL, teams get one timeout per game.  You have to save it for the moment you absolutely need it.  Do you use it when your team is dog-tired and falling apart defensively?  Do you use it when your team needs to run a key play in the final minute?  And if you only had one timeout per game, you would not have to worry about players using timeouts in annoying situations (like to get out of a trap).  Of course, this rule will never get implemented because late game timeouts are great sources of TV commercial revenue.  But that’s my wife’s suggestion.  I actually have another suggestion about what I would change about college basketball:

The Great Conference Rivalry Tournament

There are a lot of fun things about attending the Final Four in person.

 -You get to see the blown up bracket on the side of a building.

-You can find the Sportscenter guys broadcasting live from the event.

-You can watch the “open” practice for the teams for an hour each on Friday.

-You can attend a student pep rally.

But one of my favorite “hidden events” is the college all-star senior game.  This game represents is a chance to say goodbye to some seniors who have made college basketball special for the last four years.  For the first time in my memory the game was televised, on Trutv, on Friday.  This year, Austin Freeman scored 21 for the losing team and reminded me that whatever NBA limitations he has, a player that can score one-on-one is valuable somewhere.  Andrew Goudelock scored 21 for the winning team and reminded us what a hidden gem he was at the College of Charleston, including his great NIT run this season.  And Kenneth Faried posting a huge double-double despite having the flu.  Even if he was sick, we should have known the NCAA’s all-time rebounds leader would give it his all on every play.  The game was a bit sloppy, but it was fun to say “Thank You Seniors” one more time.  But what that game reminded me is that this type of event could be even better.

I’ve long thought that the problem with these college all-star games is that no one cares about East vs West.  But what if these tournaments pitted the best seniors in every conference against one another?  Wouldn’t that real conference rivalry increase the level of team play?  My suggestion would be to take the players from the best conferences and have them play in some sort of mini-tournament against one another.  Here would be some suggested rosters for this year.  To make these “teams” a little more realistic, I am building traditional lineups that are not too heavy at any position.

Big Ten Senior Team

The starters were pretty obvious, but I struggled with who to use at the point-guard spot.  Michigan St.’s Kalin Lucas, Illinois’ Demetri McCamey, Northwestern’s Michael Thompson, and Penn St.’s Talor Battle were all deserving of being the point guard for this team.  But all four had weaknesses too.  Lucas missed too many shots.  Thompson didn’t shoot enough.  McCamey was inconsistent.  And Battle had the lowest assist rate.

I chose Lucas to start because he is probably the best defensive player and with his Final Four experience, he would command the most respect on the team.  I chose Michael Thompson because he was just a force at the end of close games.  And McCamey is actually probably the best three-point shooter in the bunch.  His natural position would have been shooting guard, so I envision him playing that role here.  (If you wanted to flip out McCamey for another great three point specialist like Minnesota’s Blake Hoffarber or Wisconsin’s Keaton Nankivil, I would completely understand.)  I ultimately decided to leave Battle off due to his lower assist rate.

The forward reserves were also a difficult decision.  I think Illinois’ Mike Davis played better down the stretch than Mike Tisdale, but you cannot overlook the importance of a 7 foot player to the defense.  Tisdale had a reputation for being “weak”, but his defensive rebounding and block rate were still special.

ACC Senior Team

There were not a lot of dominant players in the senior class other than Duke’s powerful duo, and that may be why the ACC struggled in the non-conference schedule this year.

The decisions about reserve post players were very difficult.  I ultimately decided to pick Boston College’s Joe Trapini ahead of Virginia Tech’s Jeff Allen.  Part of that feels wrong.  Allen probably is the better player.  But Allen just had a miserable season. His ORtg was below 100 and while he tended to get his points, he needed a lot of possessions to get them.  Leaving Allen off was sort of like leaving Michigan St.’s Durrell Summers off the Big Ten squad.  He was a good player, but he really seemed to run out of gas at the end of the year.  Because of the lack of depth in the post, Tracy Smith sneaks onto this team despite missing a large part of the season.

The two-guard spot was also a tough position.  The really outstanding three point specialist this year was Adrian Thomas, who made 93 threes, and that’s why I have him in the starting lineup.  For the bench, I chose Boston College’s Biko Paris ahead of teammate Corey Raji because Paris was a better spot up shooter.  My thinking was that if Biko Paris was not the primary ball-handler, Biko’s turnover problems would be less significant.    Derwin Kitchen was included on this team as defensive stopper.

Big 12 Senior Team

The best players on Kansas and Texas were not seniors, but I’d take BJ Holmes, Jacob Pullen, and LaceDarius Dunn against anyone.  One puzzle was what to do with Kansas’s senior guards Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed.  Both were very quiet (i.e. took few shots).  But both were incredibly efficient and won a ton of basketball games.  I ultimately left both off the team, but just narrowly.  Reed was a fantastic three-point shooter, but he could not match what Levi Knutson was able to do at Colorado.  (And maybe I just recall all of Reed’s misses against VCU in the tournament.)  And I was too big a fan of Lance Jeter at the point guard spot, to give the nod to Morningstar.  Jeter was an incredible leader and got Nebraska to play at a much higher level this year, and Jeter had the higher assist rate. I think the bigger snub might be Dogus Balbay of Texas.  Balbay would be a great defensive specialist on any team, but I could not figure out what guard to drop from the team.

The real problem was who to play in the post. Kansas St.’s Curtis Kelly and Oklahoma St.’s Matt Pilgrim really struggled this year.  This is why I ended up filling out the bench with Jamie Vanderbeken.  He was a reluctant scorer, but he provides some size inside and some shot-blocking. 

Big East Senior Team

The Big East team is always going to be loaded because the conference has 16 teams.  This year, the hardest decision about who to leave off was between Brad Wanamaker and Corey Fisher at the point guard spot.  Their tempo free numbers were incredibly similar this year.  But ultimately, playing point guard is about winning, and Wanamaker led his team to the Big East title.  He gets the nod. 

I left Georgetown’s Chris Wright and St. John’s DJ Kennedy off for injury reasons.  I left Seton Hall’s Jeremy Hazell off because you don’t need someone taking crazy off-balance shots on an all-star team.  And I left West Virginia’s Casey Mitchell off because he even clashed with his own head coach.  But the player I struggled the most to leave off was St. John’s Dwight Hardy.  He really worked hard to take his game to another level this year, but he just did not match the numbers of the other guards listed here.  (Preston Knowles hit 100 threes this season for Louisville.)  Perhaps it is appropriate that there are no St. John’s players on my senior all-star team.  St. John’s was the ultimate team, a group of players who played well together without an all-star.  

MWC Senior Team

The MWC team was very easy to pick given the limited number of teams and clear stars.  The only glaring omission is Dariese Gary, the New Mexico senior point guard.  But Gary was injured so I assumed he cannot play in my hypothetical tournament.  If Fredette has to come out of the game (and I’m not sure why he would), Tre’Von Willis would be the backup point-guard.

The SEC and Pac-10 had very few seniors this year.  (There were only 16 total rotation seniors in the Pac-10 this year.)  But I would also round out my field with the best players from other conferences.

Mid-week:  Thoughts on the National Title Game and what the loss of these seniors means for next season.