Duke and North Carolina will once again battle for the ACC title, while Miami will be a surprise challenger once Reggie Johnson returns from a summer injury. But the biggest obstacle to the top two teams may be a slower pace of play in the ACC. The ACC has hired eight new coaches over the last two years, and Table 1 shows the difference in pace between the old coach and new coach for the eight teams that switched coaches. Of the eight coaches hired, six had a slower pace of play than the coach that was replaced. And in some cases, like Mark Turgeon and Tony Bennett, the new coach plays at a significantly slower pace.

Table 1: A Slower ACC?

Adjusted Pace

 

 

Former Coach

New Coach

 

Team

Former Coach

Last Year

New Coach

Last Job

Difference

Sidney Lowe

Mark Gottfried

NC State

67.2

68.7

1.5

Frank Haith

Jim Larranaga

Miami

65.5

65.7

0.2

Al Skinner

Steve Donahue

Boston College

65.9

65.6

-0.3

Dino Gaudio

Jeff Bzdelik

Wake Forest

69.9

68.5

-1.4

Paul Hewitt

Brian Gregory

Georgia Tech

69.2

66.5

-2.7

Oliver Purnell

Brad Brownell

Clemson

69.1

63.2

-5.9

Gary Williams

Mark Turgeon

Maryland

71.6

62.2

-9.4

Dave Leitao

Tony Bennett

Virginia

68.2

58.7

-9.5

 

 

Avg.

68.3

64.9

 

Perhaps when these coaches join the ACC, the pace will not drop as much as expected. But for the coaches that have already taken over, Table 2 shows that the games have already been getting slower. Boston College held North Carolina to 58 possessions in February, and nearly pulled the upset losing 48-46. For better or worse, there could be more games like that in the ACC this season. 

Table 2: Change is Underway

Adjusted Pace

 

 

Former Coach

New Coach

 

Team

Former Coach Last Year

New Coach 2011

Difference

Dino Gaudio

Jeff Bzdelik

Wake Forest

69.9

70.4

0.5

Al Skinner

Steve Donahue

Boston College

65.9

63.9

-2.0

Oliver Purnell

Brad Brownell

Clemson

69.1

65.3

-3.8

Dave Leitao

Tony Bennett

Virginia

68.2

60.8

-7.4

 

 

Avg.

68.3

65.1

 

For teams with less talent, the shorter game is often the avenue to an upset. Few teams can outscore North Carolina and Duke over 70 or 80 possessions. But over 50 or 60 possessions, any team can get on a hot streak. For this reason, Dean Smith believed in speeding up the game and maximizing possessions. And no one has been more successful at implementing a fast pace than Roy Williams. Since taking over in 2003, Williams has had the fastest pace in the nation among BCS coaches. But fast play is not just a Tar Heel phenomenon. Mike Krzyzewski keeps Duke running up and down the floor as well. 

Table 3:
Veteran ACC Coaches

 

Adjusted Pace

 

Career

BCS Rank

Roy Williams

North Carolina

72.8

1st

Mike Krzyzewski

Duke

69.3

11th

Leonard Hamilton

Florida St.

67.5

28th

Seth Greenberg

Virginia Tech

66.6

37th

No ACC opponent has the talent and experience to match the Tar Heels and Blue Devils. But with fewer possessions per game, even mediocre ACC teams may be an occasional upset threat.

Wake Forest 

Last year, Wake Forest was the worst BCS team since Ken Pomeroy began tracking tempo free statistics. Pomeroy calculates Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) which is the team’s expected winning percentage against an average D1 team. ACC teams are often above 90%, and almost always above 70%. The worst ACC team in the tempo free era was the 2002-03 Clemson team that posted a 63% PWP. In 2010-11 Wake Forest had a PWP of only 26%. And the Demon Deacons had the home losses to Stetson, Winthrop, and Presbyterian that proved their futility. That the defense was bad was not a surprise. Jeff Bzdelik has never been a great defensive coach at the D1 level. But the offensive ineptitude was a surprise. Wake Forest’s recruiting class received numerous accolades and the freshmen simply did not live up to expectations.

The bright spot among the Wake Forest freshmen was Travis McKie who was dominant on the boards, and extremely effective at getting to the line. But the rest of the freshman class was significantly disappointing. Melvin Tabb was dismissed for conduct detrimental to the team in February, allowed to rejoin the team during the summer, and then he somehow got kicked off the team again.  Freshman JT Terrell seemed like a success story, and he did score a lot of points in his first year, including the game-winning three against Iowa in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.  But Terrell shot just 39% on 165 twos last season, and he too was kicked off the team this summer because of his off-court problems. Carson Desrosiers and Tony Chennault were also disappointing in their first year.

Point-guard CJ Harris cannot do it alone, and he needs his returning teammates to have a sophomore year leap in productivity if Wake Forest is going to climb out of the cellar.  The good news is that teams that give a lot of possessions to freshman typically improve significantly the following season. The bad news is that Wake Forest was so terrible last year, that even with substantial improvement, the Demon Deacons may finish near the bottom of the ACC again.

Boston College

Often with a young team, the defense comes around before the offense. But there seems to be something in the water with former Ivy League head coaches. Table 4 shows that former Ivy League coaches have been fantastic at teaching offense, but less successful at coaching defense. (Note: I list John Thompson’s 2010 stats because of a key team injury in 2011.)

Table 4: Former Ivy League Coaches

Adj. Off. Rank

Adj Def Rank

Steve Donahue (2011)

17th

204th

John Thompson III (2010)

9th

47th

Bill Carmody (2011)

18th

121st

In his first season, Steve Donahue managed to teach Al Skinner’s players his system and get the Boston College offense to produce at a high level. And it would not be out of the question for him to do the same with a group of young players this year. With a perimeter-oriented offense, and precision back-cuts, Boston College should get its share of easy buckets.

But with Reggie Jackson selected in the first round of the NBA draft, Dallas Elmore transferring, and almost every other key player graduating, Boston College is starting over. Danny Rubin is back and he shot 43% on his threes last year. Forward Ryan Anderson is a top recruit who is expected to play well immediately. And Oregon transfer Matt Humphrey should bring some needed experience to the lineup. But replacing the entire rotation with a group of unheralded recruits is a recipe for a long season.

Georgia Tech 

Last year, Georgia Tech had brutal perimeter offense (328th in the nation in three point percentage) and brutal perimeter defense (319th in the nation in three point percentage allowed). Half-court basketball was not kind to the Yellow Jackets. Thus when Georgia Tech went looking for a new head coach, they wanted a leader who could thrive in full-court situations. The team selected Brian Gregory. In 2010, Gregory’s Dayton Flyers won the NIT title by using a deep roster of 11 players, and playing a pressing full-court style that minimized half-court situations and accentuated his players strengths. And Gregory will need similar creativity to build a winner this year. For example, Daniel Miller (87.4 ORtg) and Nate Hicks (only 9% of his team’s shots when on the floor) have almost no offensive game whatsoever. But they both had great block rates last season. Consider also Mfun Udofia (89.4 ORtg). No one wants to see him shoot more, but his steal rate was excellent. If Gregory can accentuate some of these strengths, and not ask players to take shots they are not capable of making, Georgia Tech can improve immediately.

One player that should improve the perimeter offense is Brandon Reed, a transfer from Arkansas St., who becomes eligible this season. The team also adds forward Julian Royal, who is hailed as a consensus top 100 recruit. And Brian Gregory inherits Glen Rice Jr. who was a prolific, if not efficient scorer last year. But while Gregory beat North Carolina in the NIT title game in 2010, and Georgia Tech beat the Tar Heels last season, it is hard to predict a repeat of that outcome. This team is still light years behind the top of the ACC.

N.C. State

No elite coach would fail to value defensive rebounding.  But for Sidney Lowe, it was a career-long problem. In five years at NC State, Sidney Lowe’s teams ranked between 187th and 293rd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Interestingly, new head coach Mark Gottfried also struggled in this category in his final year at Alabama. Gottfried’s team ranked 282nd in defensive rebounding percentage in 2009. As an example of NC State’s defensive rebounding struggles, North Carolina grabbed 45% of the available offensive boards against NC State in February, while Duke grabbed 52% of the available offensive boards against NC State in January. 

Sidney Lowe

at NC State

Def Reb% (Rnk)

2011

64.7 (293rd)

2010

66.2 (228th)

2009

66.9 (187th)

2008

64.4 (282nd)

2007

66.1 (189th)

Mark Gottfried

at Alabama

Def Reb% (Rnk)

2009

64.2 (282nd)

2008

67.7 (141st)

2007

65.4 (227th)

2006

66.9 (132nd)

2005

69.4 (41st)

2004

67.0 (134th)

2003

67.8 (86th)

Last year, the defensive rebounding problems had at least three causes. First, Tracy Smith was injured, and struggled to regain his explosiveness when he rejoined the team. Second, a number of the younger players (see 7’1” Jordan Vandenberg) simply did not perform. Third, Scott Wood remains one of the most lethal three point shooters in the ACC, but despite his 6’6” frame, he refuses to fight in the paint for defensive boards. The good news for NC State is that the solution may already be on the team. For two years Richard Howell has been a fantastic rebounder (and an efficient offensive player). Howell needs to see the floor more often for the Wolfpack in 2011-12.

The other key for Mark Gottfried will be getting the once-great high school talents to start playing like ACC stars. NC State took too many bad shots and turned the ball over too much to be a solid offensive team last season. Ryan Harrow has now transferred out, but the other two players in the heralded freshman class must live up to their potential. CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown must learn to value possessions and live up to their reputations as elite recruits if NC State is going to compete for an NCAA bid this season.

Coming Monday: Part 2 of the ACC Preview