yardbarker
RealGM Basketball

RealGM Articles
Basketball news gathered from around the net.

Beating The Top Teams

This first table recreates the Pomeroy rankings using only games against NCAA tournament teams:

 

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag.

1

Michigan St.

117.6

84.8

12

5

0.9662

2

Missouri

127.7

93.4

11

3

0.9611

3

Kentucky

122.9

89.9

11

2

0.9609

4

Ohio St.

117.8

86.4

10

6

0.9599

5

Kansas

114.6

86.7

12

6

0.9459

6

Murray St.

117.9

90.2

4

0

0.9397

7

North Carolina

116.9

90.1

12

5

0.9355

8

Indiana

121.2

93.8

8

5

0.9322

9

Georgetown

115.1

89.1

8

6

0.9322

10

VCU

116.7

90.5

3

1

0.9312

11

Vanderbilt

117.2

91.4

6

5

0.9274

12

Wisconsin

112.0

87.6

7

7

0.9250

13

Syracuse

113.9

89.3

12

2

0.9242

14

Wichita St.

117.9

92.5

4

3

0.9229

15

Florida

121.7

96.0

5

6

0.9187

16

Michigan

114.8

91.3

7

7

0.9129

17

Florida St.

109.9

87.6

7

5

0.9114

18

Southern Miss

116.8

93.3

5

2

0.9090

19

Duke

119.3

95.4

10

5

0.9082

20

St. Louis

115.1

92.2

4

3

0.9074

- No one has performed better against NCAA tournament teams than Michigan St. While their winning percentage isn’t the best, when accounting for opponent, venue, and margin-of-victory, the Spartans have been the most dominant.

- While Syracuse has an impressive 12-2 record against tournament teams, the reality is that they haven’t been completely dominant in those games. They’ve escaped with close wins against Georgetown, Connecticut, West Virginia, and others.

- I’m not sure I would trust these numbers for teams with very few games. Sure VCU has great numbers, but they played Western Kentucky twice and crushed them, and they beat South Florida handily while the Bulls were missing multiple starters. Similarly, Murray St.’s impressive stats are driven by one blowout win over St. Mary’s.

- But for teams with numerous games against tournament teams, the stats are more revealing. Duke has played 15 games against NCAA teams and while they’ve gone 10-5, they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out.

- Ken Pomeroy has rightfully argued that Southern Miss is over-seeded. But the reason that happened is because the Golden Eagles have been at their best against quality competition.

 

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag.

21

Louisville

106.2

85.1

11

8

0.9068

22

New Mexico

112.3

90.0

7

4

0.9059

23

Temple

118.0

95.0

5

2

0.9023

24

Colorado

103.4

83.5

2

3

0.8991

25

Marquette

111.9

90.5

9

6

0.8988

26

Kansas St.

111.6

90.3

6

8

0.8979

27

Baylor

119.4

96.7

10

7

0.8967

28

Gonzaga

110.8

90.2

5

4

0.8923

29

Cincinnati

111.8

93.1

7

6

0.8676

30

Alabama

106.4

88.6

4

6

0.8667

31

UNLV

112.3

93.7

5

6

0.8654

32

St. Mary's

118.6

98.9

4

3

0.8654

33

Ohio

110.8

92.5

2

1

0.8643

34

Texas

113.8

95.0

4

11

0.8640

35

Xavier

110.7

92.5

5

7

0.8625

36

Iowa St.

110.6

93.4

7

7

0.8497

37

Lehigh

123.6

104.8

0

2

0.8450

38

Virginia

104.6

88.7

2

6

0.8436

39

Belmont

113.3

96.4

0

2

0.8391

40

Creighton

121.0

103.2

3

1

0.8353

- No one has played more games against tournament teams than Louisville. And while the Cardinal haven’t always been dominant, they have been tested.

- Baylor may be a No. 3 seed, but they’ve struggled against NCAA tournament teams.

- Texas has been close in a lot of games, but the 4-11 record indicates that they’ve rarely earned the win against quality competition.

 

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag.

41

Connecticut

111.3

95.1

7

8

0.8337

42

Davidson

116.0

99.8

1

3

0.8241

43

Purdue

117.6

101.4

3

10

0.8195

44

West Virginia

111.4

96.3

4

8

0.8160

45

San Diego St.

108.6

94.1

6

6

0.8130

46

Notre Dame

105.8

91.9

10

7

0.8086

47

Harvard

93.7

81.6

2

1

0.8047

48

Memphis

112.5

98.4

3

6

0.7981

49

Long Beach St.

112.1

98.2

1

7

0.7953

50

NC State

111.2

98.1

4

9

0.7838

51

Iona

112.6

100.6

3

2

0.7604

52

Montana

105.0

95.6

1

1

0.7252

53

St. Bonaventure

109.5

101.4

2

4

0.6878

54

New Mexico St.

100.6

93.3

1

3

0.6856

55

Detroit

93.8

87.8

0

2

0.6635

56

Loyola (MD)

104.9

99.3

1

3

0.6363

57

Norfolk St.

94.3

89.7

1

2

0.6252

58

Colorado St.

107.4

102.6

5

6

0.6136

59

BYU

104.1

100.1

1

6

0.5991

60

South Florida

92.4

91.6

3

10

0.5215

61

Vermont

101.2

100.5

0

5

0.5166

62

Lamar

95.5

94.9

0

4

0.5163

63

NC Asheville

102.0

102.2

0

4

0.4952

64

Long Island

101.5

103.7

1

2

0.4443

65

California

97.0

99.3

1

5

0.4412

66

Western Kentucky

97.5

102.2

0

4

0.3794

67

Mississippi Valley St.

91.5

96.5

0

5

0.3658

68

South Dakota St.

   

0

0

 

- South Florida hasn’t performed well against tournament teams, but play-in game opponent California has been even worse.

- Memphis has also earned its keep by crushing non-tournament teams. Against the tournament field they have been merely average.

- Amazingly, South Dakota St. did not play a single NCAA tournament team during the regular season.

Last 10 Games Splits

But how have these teams done in the last 10 games?

 

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag.

1

Michigan St.

121.5

84.4

8

2

0.9767

2

Memphis

119.6

83.4

9

1

0.9757

3

Kentucky

123.2

89.1

9

1

0.9652

4

North Carolina

120.5

87.8

9

1

0.9623

5

Wichita St.

121.7

90.5

9

1

0.9542

6

Kansas

120.0

90.0

9

1

0.9505

7

Missouri

132.5

99.3

8

2

0.9504

8

Vanderbilt

119.8

90.0

7

3

0.9494

9

Ohio St.

119.1

90.4

6

4

0.9441

10

Indiana

122.5

93.2

8

2

0.9427

11

Syracuse

117.7

90.9

9

1

0.9336

12

Purdue

129.8

102.3

6

4

0.9201

13

Georgetown

111.7

88.2

6

4

0.9180

14

Baylor

120.1

94.9

6

4

0.9179

15

Wisconsin

115.7

92.1

6

4

0.9116

16

Belmont

117.8

94.3

10

0

0.9072

17

New Mexico

110.8

89.2

8

2

0.9021

18

South Florida

97.4

78.9

7

3

0.8965

19

St. Louis

108.1

87.7

8

2

0.8945

20

Kansas St.

111.2

90.5

6

4

0.8922

- Now Memphis becomes an even bigger dilemma. They’ve been playing like one of the top teams in the country lately, but when they played tournament teams, they weren’t nearly as good. Which team will show up on Friday?

- Belmont is currently clicking on all cylinders which makes them a trendy pick to upset Georgetown.

- And don’t sleep on South Florida. They were a much better team at the end of the season, even if they can’t score to save their life.

 

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag.

21

Florida St.

111.8

91.2

8

2

0.8899

22

Marquette

114.1

93.1

7

3

0.8897

23

Michigan

115.7

94.5

7

3

0.8891

24

Duke

114.0

93.2

8

2

0.8878

25

Louisville

100.1

81.9

6

4

0.8873

26

Cincinnati

113.8

93.4

7

3

0.8836

27

Iowa St.

113.9

93.5

6

4

0.8834

28

St. Bonaventure

118.9

98.3

8

2

0.8753

29

Gonzaga

112.9

94.1

8

2

0.8658

30

Florida

121.1

101.9

4

6

0.8546

31

Long Beach St.

108.1

91.2

8

2

0.8507

32

New Mexico St.

110.9

93.7

8

2

0.8479

33

NC State

111.9

94.8

5

5

0.8458

34

Connecticut

112.6

96.0

5

5

0.8357

35

California

109.1

93.2

7

3

0.8342

36

Virginia

102.5

87.6

4

6

0.8332

37

Notre Dame

111.4

95.3

7

3

0.8316

38

Temple

115.8

99.1

8

2

0.8316

39

Alabama

103.6

89.0

6

4

0.8270

40

Colorado St.

113.1

97.3

6

4

0.8244

- Louisville really is the perfect analogy to last year’s UConn team. They limped to the finish in the regular season before winning the Big East tournament. Overall in the last 10, they haven’t been that great, but over the last 4 games they were special.

- Duke was simply not dominant over the teams last 10 games.

 

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag.

41

Texas

113.9

98.5

6

4

0.8168

42

South Dakota St.

112.6

97.5

9

1

0.8129

43

San Diego St.

108.6

94.9

6

4

0.8004

44

VCU

107.0

94.1

9

1

0.7883

45

Ohio

109.1

96.3

8

2

0.7839

46

Montana

103.0

91.5

10

0

0.7702

47

Davidson

109.8

97.6

8

2

0.7696

48

Creighton

118.8

105.7

7

3

0.7675

49

Murray St.

105.9

94.4

9

1

0.7646

50

Xavier

108.1

96.6

6

4

0.7600

51

Harvard

108.1

97.1

8

2

0.7514

52

UNLV

104.2

93.7

5

5

0.7483

53

West Virginia

111.0

99.9

4

6

0.7471

54

Colorado

101.6

91.9

7

3

0.7355

55

Iona

121.1

109.6

8

2

0.7347

56

Lehigh

105.4

95.5

9

1

0.7328

57

St. Mary's

113.1

102.5

7

3

0.7321

58

Detroit

109.7

99.6

9

1

0.7287

59

Vermont

101.2

91.9

9

1

0.7277

60

BYU

101.5

92.7

7

3

0.7171

61

NC Asheville

106.2

98.1

8

2

0.6934

62

Lamar

105.6

98.9

7

3

0.6617

63

Southern Miss

107.3

104.2

5

5

0.5731

64

Western Kentucky

101.6

98.9

7

3

0.5693

65

Loyola (MD)

104.1

102.9

7

3

0.5281

66

Long Island

111.6

110.6

9

1

0.5236

67

Norfolk St.

97.9

103.6

9

1

0.3572

68

Mississippi Valley St.

93.8

108.3

9

1

0.1869

- As much as I love Texas based on all their close losses to quality teams, they sort of limped to the finish. They may have defeated Iowa St. in the Big 12 tournament, but before that they were struggling to beat teams like Texas Tech.

- Murray St. also struggled down the stretch in the OVC. They were winning games, but not by a margin that would suggest a deep NCAA tournament run.

 

Basketball Wiretap Headlines

    NBA Wiretap Headlines

      NCAA Wiretap Headlines

        MLB Wiretap Headlines

          NFL Wiretap Headlines

            NHL Wiretap Headlines

              Soccer Wiretap Headlines