The Indiana Pacers finished with the fifth-best record in the NBA, but they have flown under the radar because of their lack of playoff experience and all the star power among the rest of the Eastern Conference.

The Orlando Magic would have brought star power to this three-six series if Dwight Howard was playing, but his recent back surgery prematurely ended his season.

For the first time since 2004, when they won a league-best 61 games, the Pacers are favored in a playoff series. If Howard was healthy, despite Indiana’s status as the higher seed and with homecourt advantage, that may not have be the case.

The absence of Howard is the fulcrum of this series.

Hibbert and West against Davis and Co.

Without the six-time All-Star and reigning, three-time Defensive Player of the Year, there will be even more pressure on Roy Hibbert and David West to dominate in the paint. Both struggled against Orlando during the regular season -- the Magic took three of four -- as Howard dominated the interior.

Hibbert and West won’t have to try to stop Howard from catching the ball deep in the paint, while also trying to score effectively against his physicality, but they now have a different type of pressure on their shoulders. Glen Davis has stepped in for Howard as Orlando’s starting center, a matchup that gives Hibbert and his long arms a length advantage of at least five inches.

Stan Van Gundy has praised Ryan Anderson’s defensive improvement this season, but West should be able score inside with efficiency and regularity. West is one of the craftiest fours in the NBA, posing a different type of challenge for Anderson than most power forwards.

Hibbert averaged 10.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in four games against the Magic (27.0 minutes), while West struggled with 7.0 points and 5.0 rebounds in 27.3 minutes of action. Hibbert shot 41.9% from the field, which was significantly better than West’s 36.8% average.

Those numbers will have to be much better this series, especially since the duo should be featured more prominently. If the Magic upset the Pacers, the blame will almost certainly fall on Hibbert and West.

I wrote last week that Hibbert needed a strong showing in the postseason to make his breakout 2011-12 campaign truly matter. If he dominates against Orlando’s smaller big men, it will improve his confidence going forward and increase his value as a restricted free agent this summer.

Orlando has to shoot well

While Hibbert and West are the keys for the Pacers, you have to step out to the perimeter to find the most important players for the Magic.

If they are going to extend this series and give Indiana a scare, Orlando is going to have to get supreme efforts from the quartet of Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Hedo Turkoglu and Anderson.

Since Howard was sidelined for good, beginning April 9 against the Pistons, the Magic have relied more heavily on their perimeter threats. On the surface that is to be expected, but the attempts have not been nearly as advantageous without Howard to draw defenders away from the three-point line.

For the season, the Magic averaged 27 three-point attempts per game while making 10.2 (37.5%).

In the 10 games Orlando played without Howard to finish the regular season, they attempted 28.7 threes while hitting just 35.5% of the attempts.

George Hill, Paul George and Danny Granger will be charged with limiting Redick, Turkoglu, Anderson and the Richardsons (Jason and Quentin), having to close out on the shooters when caught in defensive rotations or help situations.

The three-point shot will be a large part of the series. Orlando (37.5%) and Indiana (36.8%) both finished in the top-six in terms of shooting percentage, but the Magic attempt nearly 11 more threes per game.

If the Magic can get hot, they will make it hard for the Pacers to win, even without Howard patrolling the paint. It sounds bizarre, but they are constructed nicely to absorb the loss of their superstar and steal a few games because of their stable of shooters. But if Orlando goes cold from deep, Indiana will be able to close this seven-game series out sooner rather than later.

Rebounding

The teams finished the season with similar rebound percentages (Indiana at .509, Orlando at .507), but the Pacers were better on the offensive glass and the Magic on the defensive side. Only four teams had a higher offensive rebound percentage (.292) than the Pacers, thanks in large part to the efforts of Hibbert. Without Howard, Indiana should be able to score even in games that they aren’t shooting particularly well.

Hibbert and West will have the opportunity to dominate offensively against the smaller Magic, but they can have just as profound an effect if they dominate on the glass.

The Verdict

The Pacers should be able to win this series in five games without too much difficulty, as Howard was the chief reason why the Magic won the regular-season series. Orlando, however, has the edge in experience and getting hot could allow them to steal a game or two.

Indiana sustained a high level of play over the entire 66-game season, save for one rough stretch, and they have dominated the month of April. They went 12-3 with three wins against playoff teams and all three losses coming at the hands of fellow postseason entrants.

The Pacers finished with 42 wins, a mark they hadn’t reached since 2005 despite playing 16 fewer games in the post-lockout season. They should be able to win four out of the next five, or six at the very least.

Pacers over Magic in Five