After an unexpected playoff run last year, the Bucks are off to a slow start. Through Sunday, the Bucks are 5-8 and have lost three straight. While a small sample size, there have been some drastic differences between the upstarts of last year and the scuffling bunch this season.

Most dramatic is the drop off in Defensive Rating. Last season the Bucks were one of the top defensive squads in the NBA with a rating of 102.2, good for fourth in the league. This season the Bucks are dead last with a rating of 112.5. For a team that is built around length at all positions, challenging shots, and forcing turnovers, the struggles are alarming.

There are some simple reasons for this.

First, they essentially swapped Zaza Pachulia for Greg Monroe. While Monroe gives the team a lift offensive, there is a noticeable downgrade on the defensive end. Pachulia is a rugged defender and can hold his own hedging and switching on pick and rolls. Monroe isn’t quick enough to get out on the guards and then drop back to protect the paint. And if he switches, it is basically over.

In addition, Jabari Parker is back from his ACL injury of last year. Like Monroe, Parker offers so much on the offensive end that he has to play, but he’s not a good defender. Teams have attacked him pretty regularly and forced him to move his feet. The effort is there; the effectiveness is not.

And finally, Michael Carter-Williams is in the lineup every game now in place of Brandon Knight. Carter-Williams fits the mold Jason Kidd wants in a long armed, quick defender. He’s struggled some as he gets his timing back after an injury of his own. For all the criticisms Knight has had lumped on him, he is a good team defender. He is sound on defending the pick and roll and sticks to the system. He was very good last year at funneling his man to the middle where Pachulia, John Henson and Giannis Antetokounmpo could help. Carter-Williams is solid on the ball, but gets lost in the overall scheme. 

For Milwaukee, they need to recapture their 14-15 form defensively, because their offense is still a work in progress. A lot of their success last year came off of their defense. They would force turnovers and then get out and run and get easy baskets. This style utilizes their athletes best when they push the pace. Last year, they were middle of the pack in Pace. This season, they are in the NBA in Pace. For a team that doesn’t have a lot of shooting, they can’t afford to be last in Pace. How can the Bucks fix this? A lot of it comes down to health and reps. So far only Khris Middleton and Greg Monroe have started every game (Antetokounmpo missed one game after a suspension), and Greivis Vasquez and Johnny O’Bryant are the others who have played in every game. With Parker and Carter-Williams back from injury and Henson working his way back, the team is finally getting the roster they envisioned to start the year. As they play together more and figure out each other’s tendencies, the Bucks should improve. A big success measure for defense is continuity and communication. This should come with time. And as the defense improves, especially as turnovers go up, the offense should get better as well.

Offensive improvement has to come from more than just running off turnovers however. There is a serious lack of easy offense for this group. If the Bucks have to play in the halfcourt, things break down for them fairly quickly. For all the athletes they have, none of them are great off the dribble. Antetokounmpo can take bigger forwards to the rim occasionally, but still has some trouble finishing through contact. Carter-Williams has no jumper to speak of, so teams lay off him and wait for the drive. This is especially problematic in the pick and roll game, as teams regularly go under the screen, which junks up the rest of the play. Parker showed a nice midrange game as a rookie and a good ability to finish plays inside. There have been flashes of that in the games he’s played this year.

Recently, in two games against the Cavaliers, Parker took Kevin Love off the dribble a few times. Then when Love sat back, he stuck a couple of shots from the midrange area. Monroe is terrific in the post and has a decent jumper, but he moves fairly slowly as the roll man, and the lack of passing lanes makes it tough for him to get easy hoops. Middleton is the only guy in the starting lineup that is a respectable shooter. He’s okay off the dribble and terrific from deep. He needs to play big minutes to open things up for Monroe, Antetokounmpo and Parker to operate inside.

The lack of shooting from the starters also means that Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo have to see plenty of minutes. Bayless has been excellent this year and has been giving Milwaukee great bang for the buck, no pun intended. Mayo has been out for most of the season, but his offense off the bench is a necessity as the Bucks navigate through the season. Vasquez has been okay, but he has shot horribly. Teams are starting to give him the Carter-Williams treatment and give him the shot, as opposed to giving him clear passing lanes. Rashad Vaughn, a rookie shooter that the team likes, could see more minutes as the season goes along. His shooting would be welcome, but he has been a disaster on defense when he’s played so far. Kidd won’t play him until he proves he understands his role on that end. 

The Bucks’ cap sheet is relatively clean for the coming seasons. Middleton, Monroe and Henson are all locked in for the next couple of seasons. Middleton and Henson are both on solid deals that decline over the life of the contract, making them very tradeable pieces if Milwaukee wanted to go that direct. Antetokounmpo, Parker and Carter-Williams all have a couple of seasons left on their Rookie Scale contracts. Bayless, Mayo and Vasquez are all expiring contracts.

The rest of the roster (O’Bryant, Chris Copeland, Tyler Ennis, Damien Inglis, and Miles Plumlee) are end of the bench options on a good team. O’Bryant and Inglis have had flashes, but neither is ready to contribute beyond spot minutes. Milwaukee owns all of their future first rounds picks, as well. So, the cupboard is far from bare. It would seem that Antetokounmpo is off limits, and it would probably take a sweetheart deal to move Parker or Middleton. But the Bucks could put together a deal for some shooting, or more interior defense. If the Pelicans continue to struggle, a trade of Ryan Anderson for O.J. Mayo could benefit both teams. Intra-division trades are rare, but the Bulls have an extra big and could use a little punch from their backcourt.

The main point is that the Bucks have options. For an up and coming team, having a lot of options is a key to long term, sustainable success. Milwaukee has a lot of buzz around the league, a new arena coming and fun young players who could be stars. Balancing a desire to go for it, but without compromising the future is a tightrope the organization has to walk.

The Bucks are the team in the Eastern Conference that can take down the Cleveland Cavaliers due to their style and matchup advantages. Obviously, every team in the East is chasing Cleveland and trying to take them down. If the Bucks are the team to do that, they need to get back to their ways of last year defensively and find solutions for easy offense, either internally or through trade. If not, this will be another middle of the pack finish and maybe with a first round ouster in the playoffs.