The Oklahoma City Thunder bounced all the way back from an injury-plagued 14-15 to push the Warriors all the way to the brink in the Western Conference Finals. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook healthy almost all season, the Thunder were also the second best offensive team in the league, trailing only the Warriors. And they accomplished all of this with the looming specter of Durant’s free agency hanging over their heads all year. 

Before getting to the topic that will dominate the headlines until he signs, it is important to recognize that Durant came back from an injury that could have had long-term implications. He looked like the Kevin Durant of old with all of his numbers in line with his career norms. As he ages, he’s shooting more threes and getting to the free throw line less, but that is a typical career progression. But he’s defending as well as he ever has and he averaged a career high in rebounds. In every way, Durant remains an MVP caliber player.

His long term running mate, Russell Westbrook, had another terrific season. He broke double digits in assists for the first time, shot more efficiently than he ever has, averaged a career high in rebounds, maintained his scoring, and continue to play solid defense. This past season was Westbrook’s best all-around year. He was also healthy all season after missing significant time the previous two years. He’s sometimes overshadowed by Durant, but Westbrook is MVP level in his own right. 

The two stars were joined by Steven Adams and Andre Roberson. Both players are entering their fourth year of their Rookie Scale deals and are extension eligible for the first time. Adams has become entrenched as the defensive leader and enforcer for the Thunder. His offensive game, once a weakness, has blossomed and he’s now one of the better finishers around the rim in the league. It’s a guarantee that the Thunder would like to have Adams anchor the backline for years to come. They’ll have extension talks, but with his relatively low cap hold, they may choose to let it go until next summer to conserve space in what may be an even more important offseason than this one. 

As for Roberson, he’s been a starter for two years now and his offensive game has improved enough that he’s no longer a complete zero on that end. He also guards the best opposing wing for most of the game. When you have two high usage players like Durant and Westbrook, you need players around them that are content to do the dirty work and Roberson fills that role quite well. He’s highly unlikely to ink an extension this summer because, similar to Adams, his low cap hold helps conserve space for next offseason.

Rounding out the starting lineup for the Thunder was Serge Ibaka, a rotation mainstay, for a seventh straight season. Once a player who had to rely on his athleticism on both ends, Ibaka is now relying on his veteran smarts to get by. In addition, he’s become a solid jump shooter who needs to be guarded all the way to the arc. As his athleticism has waned, his defense has begun to drop off. He’s not the shot blocking marvel he was once and his fading quickness doesn’t allow him to hedge and recover on the pick and roll like he used to, but he’s still an above average defender who always fit well with his superstar teammates. 

On draft night, the Thunder made their biggest move since the James Harden trade, trading Ibaka to the Magic for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and the draft rights to Domantas Sabonis. With Ibaka due to be an unrestricted free agent after the coming season, the Thunder chose to act now. They solved a weakness in the backcourt, while adding two complementary pieces in Ilyasova and Sabonis. 

Oladipo should add scoring, decent shooting, and defense as either the starting shooting guard or as a high end sixth man. Ilyasova is a more than adequate replacement for Ibaka on offense, as he is a better shooter and he’s an underrated passer and ball mover. On the defensive end, he lacks Ibaka’s ability to block shots, but Sam Presti was quick to point out he led the league in charges drawn as a good positional defender. In addition, Ilyasova is at least as good a rebounder as Ibaka. This isn’t the downgrade some are making it out to be.

Also, acquiring Sabonis shouldn’t be undersold. He needs some polish, but he’s a rugged player who also shows impressive skills and understanding of the game. He should fill a reserve frontcourt role as a rookie and could develop into an ideal frontcourt partner for Adams.

Long considered to be a weak link, the Thunder bench performed well this year behind Dion Waiters and Enes Kanter. After a solid, but unspectacular regular season, Waiters played particularly well in the playoffs. He was regularly the third best player on the floor behind the two superstars and often part of the closing lineup. The impressive postseason performance seemed to be leading to Waiters staying with the Thunder, but after acquiring Oladipo (whose skills overlap with Waiters but are better in almost every way), it seems like Waiters is unlikely to be re-signed unless he's on an incredibly team friendly deal. 

Kanter, often polarizing for his lack of defense, has made some strides on that end of the floor by competing harder than he has previously. But what Kanter is paid to do is score and rebound, and few are more efficient at that in the league. He continues to be a weapon in the paint and he’s added a nice jumper out to 15 feet or so that he now hits regularly. He makes a great offense/defense pairing with Adams and allows Billy Donovan to match up however he needs to as the game goes along.

The rest of the roster, minus PG prospect Cameron Payne, is filled with mid to late career role players that are mostly replacement level. Guys like Randy Foye, Kyle Singler, Anthony Morrow and Nick Collison are all good players to have in a locker room, but not guys a team should be counting on for key minutes in important games. Payne, on the other hand, is a good prospect. Playing behind Westbrook, there aren’t many minutes to go around, so his impact in his rookie year was minimal. He showed enough promise though that there is hope for him in the future to be able to run a team.

This summer revolves around what Durant will do. He genuinely seems to like Oklahoma City and he clearly loves his teammates. But he’ll be 28 years old at the start of next season, and it is fair for him to question if he can get a title with the Thunder. The most likely course of action, as it has been all along, is that he signs a 1+1 deal (one-year guaranteed, followed by a player option in the second year). This would allow him to become a free agent once again the following summer, at the same time Westbrook, Oladipo, Adams and Roberson will all be free agents as well.

When it comes down to it, the Thunder hope to have little to no cap space this summer. That would mean that Durant is returning and the team will remain a contender. In many ways, Oklahoma City is a little hamstrung without knowing what their franchise player is going to do. If Durant was signing long term, which would increase the likelihood of Westbrook doing the same in a year when he is a FA, they could feel more comfortable extending Oladipo, Adams and Roberson. 

If Durant leaves, there is no free agent on the market who can begin to replace him. Oklahoma City might be forced at that point to consider moving other veterans and trying for a quick rebuild. If Durant, in effect, rolls over his free agency to next summer by signing a 1+1, Oklahoma City is faced with the prospect (albeit unlikely with the restricted free agents) of losing their entire starting 5 in the same offseason. 

For a team that has built through the draft for the most part and used homegrown players in trade to bring in other pieces, this summer and next are pivotal. Presti and Donovan will be challenged with proving that the model of developing your own players to remain relevant year after year in a small market can work. If Durant and Westbrook eventually walk, Oklahoma City could find themselves rebuilding for years, or hoping that the draft delivers them another pair of superstars in back to back years. The most important story in the NBA will be Oklahoma City until Durant makes a decision, and that domino will start the chain reaction around the league. Or it will simply delay until next summer when we get to do it all over again.

Offseason Details

Guaranteed Contracts (10): Steven Adams, Nick Collison, Josh Huestis, Enes Kanter, Mitch McGary, Victor Oladipo, Cameron Payne, Andre Roberson, Kyle Singler, Russell Westbrook

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (2): Ersan Ilyasova, Anthony Morrow

Potential Free Agents (4): Kevin Durant (UFA), Randy Foye (UFA), Nazr Mohammed (UFA), Dion Waiters (RFA)

“Dead” Money on Cap (0): None

First Round Draft Picks: Domantas Sabonis

Maximum Cap Space: $32,303,797

Projected Cap Space: None. $25,011,767 over