After a challenging and triumphant series against the Denver Nuggets, what makes the Golden State Warriors' series against the San Antonio Spurs so interesting is that so many of the advantages they exploited in the first round will turn into weaknesses against Gregg Popovich and company.

Golden State’s defense gives up tons of threes and San Antonio has no problem with that- Over the course of the regular season, Warriors’ opponents shot 23.8 three-pointers per game which was the most in the league. That worked out fine against Denver because they were 24th in the league at making them and that included Danilo Gallinari who did not play in the series. The Spurs finished third in three-point shooting percentage and tied for second in proportion of attempted threes that were assisted, showing off the ball movement that generated those looks. While some may think of pace as a major difference here that would shade the results since it affects the number of possessions played per game, the Warriors and Spurs ended up playing at nearly identical paces this season (96.8 to 96.4). Golden State has yielded pretty much the same shots all year: the variance has come on whether the opponents could actually hit the looks the Warriors gave them.

The real battle when the Spurs have the ball could be in the paint- the reason Golden State gives up so many three-point attempts is that they limited opponents to the fourth-fewest shots at the rim for the season, which is a remarkable improvement considering Andrew Bogut missed so much time. The Spurs were ninth in attempts at the rim, but the Warriors are coming off a series with the No. 1 team in the entire league in this category. Considering how excellently Tim Duncan has played over the last few months, keeping him off the score sheet as much as possible should be a major undertaking. As was the case last series, fastbreak opportunities will likely dictate the winner in this phase of the game since that generates a large sum of these good looks. That said, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili can generate quality looks in the halfcourt like Ty Lawson did last series.

The Spurs are a much better defensive team than the Nuggets, especially with the lineups Denver put on the floor against the Warriors. While there are many different ways to evaluate the quality of a team’s defense, San Antonio outclasses Denver in just about all of them. From how well opponents shoot to free throw rates to D Rating, the Spurs have the hallmarks of a better squad even as they battled health issues all season. Fortunately, the one way they have been worse than Denver is generating turnovers, though the difference is not all that stark. Beyond the statistics of it all, the other challenge for the Warriors is that the Spurs have players like Danny Green who can do a good job on Stephen Curry without a ton of Andre Millers gobbling up rotation minutes without playing defense. San Antonio also has the benefit of a more cohesive system and less gaps that help facilitate open looks for their opponents. The other factor here is coaching, which I will get to a minute.

San Antonio has trouble on the offensive boards, which could be a big help to the Warriors’ chances. While the loss of David Lee could (and should) affect how the Warriors do on the defensive glass, this series marks a big shift in terms of offensive rebounding prowess. Denver’s group of aggressive and athletic big men topped the entire league in Offensive Rebounding Rate while San Antonio finished next to last, grabbing nearly 10 percent less of available boards on that end. Interestingly, that flips when we talk about defensive rebounds since the Nuggets were 27th and the Spurs were third. Since the Nuggets extending possessions hurt the Warriors on the defensive end, this trade-off should help Golden State as long as the smaller lineups do not shift the dynamic too much.

The biggest advantage the Spurs have in this series has to be in coaching. Simply put, Popovich has been a masterful coach and tactician for the majority of his career. There have been dark points (like the Memphis series a few years back) but those largely came when the opponents had an advantage the Spurs would have trouble negating. In the first round, George Karl made a series of blunders including trying to out-small the Warriors, playing JaVale McGee and Kosta Koufos together, and putting Andre Miller on Stephen Curry for extended periods of time. Each of these gaffes created an opening for Mark Jackson and the team to exploit and these mistakes acting in concert may have swung the entire series. Even the lack of freebies like that will mark a major change but having someone who can and will exploit Golden State’s faults will make it even harder.

All of this makes the series sound pretty desolate for the Warriors. After all, the Spurs have been excellent for years and possess legitimate ownage in San Antonio having not lost a home game to Golden State during Tim Duncan’s 16-year tenure with the team. Even with all that, fans should hold out hope because this is a Golden State team with a major homecourt advantage and one who can become a nearly unstoppable force when their shots are falling. San Antonio did not win any games in OKC’s Thunderdome last year and lost both times in Oracle this season, so stranger things have happened. I see the Spurs taking both games at home, getting a split at Oracle and then finishing it off at home in Game 5, but it would be awfully fun to be wrong this time.