My projections for 351 teams will be revealed by SI this week. But today I want to use those projections to compute the odds for this year's early season tournaments.
Battle 4 Atlantis
Atlantis |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Wisconsin |
97% |
62% |
46% |
UAB |
3% |
0% |
0% |
Florida |
72% |
31% |
21% |
Georgetown |
28% |
7% |
3% |
UCLA |
44% |
17% |
4% |
Oklahoma |
56% |
24% |
6% |
Butler |
17% |
5% |
1% |
North Carolina |
83% |
54% |
19% |
Florida and Georgetown's aircraft carrier game may have been cancelled last year due to weather, but they will meet in the first round here.
Georgetown's fate depends quite a bit on the unpredictable Joshua Smith. And UCLA's lack of depth could hold them back. But six of these teams (everyone but Butler and UAB) look like NCAA tournament squads and that makes this event must-watch TV.
NIT
NIT |
Semis |
Final |
Minnesota |
58% |
21% |
St. John's |
42% |
12% |
Georgia |
23% |
10% |
Gonzaga |
77% |
57% |
St. John's should probably get a bump for playing on their home floor, but I did not give them credit for a home court advantage in these calculations. The Gophers won the post-season NIT on this floor last year.
Thanks to the additions of transfers Kyle Wiltjer and Byron Wesley, Gonzaga has five players who are former double digit scorers. The Bulldogs typically thrive in these early season events. Gonzaga has won three of the last six holiday tournaments that they have participated in.
Great Alaska Shootout
Alaska |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Pacific |
85% |
17% |
5% |
Anchorage |
15% |
1% |
0% |
Missouri St. |
27% |
19% |
9% |
Colorado St. |
73% |
63% |
44% |
Rice |
31% |
6% |
1% |
Mercer |
69% |
23% |
7% |
Washington St. |
42% |
28% |
12% |
UC Santa Barbara |
58% |
43% |
21% |
Colorado St. has four transfers that I expect to be major contributors making them one of the most intriguing teams to see early in the season. Washington St. may be the Pac-12 school, but thanks to Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara is favored to win in the first round.
Orlando Classic
Orlando Classic |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Santa Clara |
30% |
3% |
1% |
Tennessee |
70% |
11% |
4% |
Kansas |
88% |
79% |
64% |
Rhode Island |
12% |
7% |
3% |
Michigan St. |
85% |
62% |
21% |
Rider |
15% |
5% |
1% |
Marquette |
69% |
26% |
6% |
Georgia Tech |
31% |
7% |
1% |
I'm very interested in seeing new Marquette head coach Steve Wojciechowski on the sidelines. With Matt Carlino and a number of former elite recruits, Marquette could be a sleeper team this year. But teaching a bunch of new players to run and gun while still playing elite defense is not easy. Tennessee also has a ton of new faces and is very hard to peg.
Though Kansas is the prohibitive favorite, they do not draw a weak first round opponent. Rhode Island is a much-improved team, and would be favored over Santa Clara, Rider, and Georgia Tech in the loser's bracket.
Wooden Legacy
Wooden Legacy |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Princeton |
52% |
20% |
10% |
UTEP |
48% |
18% |
9% |
San Diego |
24% |
10% |
4% |
Xavier |
76% |
52% |
35% |
Long Beach St. |
56% |
25% |
9% |
Western Michigan |
44% |
17% |
6% |
San Jose St. |
17% |
4% |
1% |
Washington |
83% |
54% |
27% |
Xavier is one of the deepest teams in the country and Washington should be much improved defensively thanks to the addition of transfer and 7-footer Robert Upshaw.
Las Vegas Invitational
Las Vegas Invitational |
Semis |
Final |
Indiana St. |
24% |
6% |
Illinois |
76% |
37% |
Baylor |
37% |
19% |
Memphis |
63% |
39% |
Memphis lost a lot of scorers from last year’s team, but the Tigers have eight players who were RSCI Top 100 recruits out of high school, three players who were Top 100 JUCO players, and a talented transfer from Southern University named Calvin Godfrey. The Tigers legitimately have twelve players who project as capable rotation pieces, and that means that the winners of the competition for playing time should be good.
Emerald Coast Classic
Emerald Coast |
Semis |
Final |
Middle Tennessee |
23% |
6% |
Cincinnati |
77% |
43% |
Creighton |
41% |
19% |
Mississippi |
59% |
31% |
With a dominant lead-guard in Jarvis Summers, some quality veteran forwards and several key transfers, Ole Miss is going to sneak up on a lot of teams this year.
Corpus Christi Coastal Classic
Corpus Christi |
Semis |
Final |
Bradley |
33% |
11% |
TCU |
67% |
35% |
Mississippi St. |
48% |
25% |
Saint Louis |
52% |
29% |
I'm including this event because it includes four teams from major conferences, but these are four of the worst major conference teams out there. I'm not sure any of them will crack the Top 100.
Barclays Classic
Barclays Classic |
Semis |
Final |
Rutgers |
40% |
5% |
Vanderbilt |
60% |
10% |
La Salle |
14% |
8% |
Virginia |
86% |
77% |
Virginia has nothing to gain and everything to lose in this tournament. Anytime you play power conference schools on a neutral floor, you can get upset. And La Salle has a formidable frontcourt. But these opponents might not even count as Top 100 wins at the end of the year.
Las Vegas Classic
Las Vegas Classic |
Semis |
Final |
Texas Tech |
73% |
32% |
Loyola Chicago |
27% |
6% |
Houston |
45% |
27% |
Boise St. |
55% |
35% |
The only thing holding Boise St. back from greatness is their defense. Houston is one of my sleeper teams, but with LJ Rose out early in the year, they may do more damage in conference play.
Diamond Head
Diamond Head |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Ohio |
34% |
11% |
2% |
George Washington |
66% |
32% |
11% |
DePaul |
18% |
5% |
1% |
Colorado |
82% |
52% |
21% |
Loyola Marymount |
8% |
2% |
0% |
Wichita St. |
92% |
65% |
47% |
Nebraska |
81% |
31% |
18% |
Hawaii |
19% |
3% |
1% |
Wichita St. needs to find the right combination of front-court players to compliment its talented backcourt, but by the time December rolls around and they fly to Hawaii, they should have that figured out.