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2013 NBA Amnesty Primer

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0” in July, we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list. 

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only player left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That is beyond unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to contracts over $5 million for 2013-14 this past off-season, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets

Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011) 

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Thomas until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the Taj Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011) 

Dallas Mavericks

Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets

Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors 

Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011) 

Houston Rockets

Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers

Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011) 

Los Angeles Clippers

Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Since the Lakers have to decide about amnesty during the first week after the July moratorium, they will not have enough information on Kobe’s progress to amnesty him. Furthermore, they would only yield a big benefit if Dwight Howard leaves the Lakers and we likely will not know that at such an early stage in the process. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of World Peace's onerous deal seems like the best play. 

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Shedding Rudy Gay’s big contract means that the Grizzlies do not have to amnesty anyone in order to avoid the biggest costs of the new luxury tax system. At the present time, the only salaries the team has on the books for 2014-15 are Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley Jr, Tayshaun Prince, Darrell Arthur and Tony Wroten. Add in a rookie or two and you still have a workable structure. At this point it feels more likely that Randolph would get traded than amnestied since he would still provide value to the team.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Mike Miller

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8 million final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. At this point, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not they retain either Monta Ellis or JJ Redick, look for Gooden to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks

Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Kendrick Perkins

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would have a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic 

Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011) 

Philadelphia 76ers

Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns

Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers

Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1 million) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 offseason when Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. With new ownership looking to make a splash, having some extra money this offseason could be useful to the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-2014 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Linas Kleiza, Andrea Bargnani

Most likely amnesty decision: Linas Kleiza in 2013. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line. With that, getting a little bit more space in terms of the apron/tax line would be good for the Raptors if they are unwilling to bite the bigger bullet in the form of Bargnani.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards

Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

Defense Clicks Late, But Pacers Can’t Recover

The Indiana Pacers were locked in defensively in the second half on Monday night, but it was too little too late as the Atlanta Hawks won 102-91 and evened the first round best-of-seven series at two games apiece.

Atlanta shot 32.3 percent in the second half, including a dreadful 15 percent in the third quarter, but Indiana couldn’t crawl out of the hole they built themselves over the first 24 minutes. Trailing 57-40 at halftime, the Pacers used a 15-2 run in the third to cut the Hawks’ lead to just seven entering the fourth.

As badly as the Hawks shot the ball in the third -- they missed all eight of their three-point attempts -- it could have been worse. The Pacers shot 40.9 percent in the quarter and 38.1 percent overall, keeping them forever at arm’s length.

Frank Vogel may not sleep before Wednesday night because of a stretch between the first and second quarters that ultimately doomed the Pacers. They had chances to get within a possession in the final minutes, but their issues were too deeply rooted to overcome.

The Hawks closed the first on an 8-0 run and outscored the Pacers 35-19 in the second. The 43-19 swing allowed Atlanta to erase a seven-point deficit and build a 17-point advantage. Larry Drew’s club shot 60 percent in the second frame, making seven of their first nine attempts. Kyle Korver and Anthony Tolliver combined to help the Hawks go 7-for-8 from deep in the fateful quarter.

In an offensive rut, the Pacers settled for jumpers and too many threes in hopes of stemming Atlanta’s flow. Vogel’s crew went 4-for-10 from three in the second, with their long misses helping the Hawks initiate quick offense. In the first half, the transition defense was poor once again. Atlanta shot 55 percent in the first 24 minutes against a team that, for a good majority of the season, was the best field goal percentage unit in the NBA.

There is a lot to look for as the series becomes a best-of-three tilt. 

Paul The Great

Paul George looked frustrated and off on both ends of the floor in the first half, but his defense clicked in the third and he dominated offensively in the fourth. Overall, George has been gambling too much defensively and hasn’t been able to shut anyone down this series.

George’s assignments -- Josh Smith and Korver -- were a combined 16-for-31 in Game 4.

Entering the final period with seven points, George erupted for 14 points on 3-for-5 shooting and 6-for-8 from the foul line. He finished with 21 points, 12 rebounds and four steals. He also had four turnovers. The Pacers need more of the aggressive, fourth-quarter Paul George if they plan to advance.

Drew Back To Earlier Lineup?

Larry Drew used a smaller lineup often in the second half, which may bode well for the Pacers going forward. He had to keep Korver on the floor because of his hot shooting, forcing the Hawks to pick-and-choose when to go big. With Korver on him, George went off late.

The Pacers obviously want George to be able to blanket Korver on defense and score easily against him on the other end, but it remains to be seen where Drew will lean in Game 5 on Wednesday night. George has had issues guarding and scoring on Smith, who hasn’t gotten enough credit for his D on George.

Free Throw: Positives and Negatives

Atlanta attempted 38 foul shots on Monday night, thirteen more than Indiana. If it weren’t for trips to the foul line in the third quarter, the Hawks might have seen all of their first-half lead vanish. Still, it hurts to watch a team shoot 65.8 percent from the line.

The Hawks were not a good free throw shooting club during the regular season at 71.5 percent, but they have further regressed in the playoffs. Through four games, they are shooting 59 percent at the line. Of course, it helps that they have increased their attempts steadily in the series (from 14 to 20 to 28, all the way to 38 in Game 4).

Can the Hawks Remain Hot?

It continues to boggle the mind that the Pacers could lead the league by holding opponents to 42 percent shooting overall and 32.7 percent from three in the regular season and then allow the Hawks to light them up when the games matter most. They struggled defensively in April, but they attributed that to some players being hobbled by injuries and others resting.

That isn’t a valid excuse anymore.

Atlanta is shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 39.2 percent from deep in the series. If you remove Indiana’s best defensive quarter (the third from Game 4) from the equation, the Hawks see their percentages jump to 48.8 percent and 43.6 percent. Those numbers would have made them the best offense over the course of the regular season.

After allowing 1.10 points per field goal attempt over 81 games, the Pacers are allowing 1.22 PPS in the playoffs -- right in the middle of the playoff pack. If the Pacers don’t shore up their defense by Game 5, their dreams of a getting a second chance at the Miami Heat will end two rounds too soon.

Woes In Atlanta Continue For Pacers In Game 3 Loss

With a chance to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the Atlanta Hawks, the Indiana Pacers struggled yet again at Philips Arena on Saturday night, losing 90-69 in Game 3. The Pacers haven’t won in Atlanta since Dec. 22, 2006, when they were led in scoring by Stephen Jackson and rebounding by Jeff Foster.

Indiana’s scoring total was just over half of what they averaged into the first two games (110).

Larry Drew wisely opted for a bigger starting lineup, putting Johan Petro at center and shifting Kyle Korver to the bench. The adjustment allowed Al Horford to matchup against David West and Josh Smith to slide over to Paul George.

The move benefited the Hawks on both ends of the floor as George concentrated on defending Smith early. Smith finished with 14 points on 6-for-13 shooting, a line that would have been bigger if Atlanta hadn’t dominated from tip to horn.

The combination of a tougher defensive assignment and a rangier primary defender curtailed George’s offense. He got to the line (7-for-8), but was just 4-for-11 from the field and scored 16 points in the loss.

Aside from West, 7-for-14 and 18 points, the Pacers looked positively lost on offense. The Hawks scored 24 points off Indiana’s 22 turnovers and there was more standing around and staring than anything else. They shot a season-low 27.2 percent from the field, making nearly as many free throws (21) as shots (22). If you remove West from the equation, the team percentage drops to 22.3 percent.

At one point in the second quarter, the Pacers missed 17 of 19 shots. The Hawks shot poorly from downtown, about the only thing that didn’t go their way in Game 3, but their percentage was more than ten points higher Indiana’s (26.7 percent to 16 percent).

Nothing worked for the Pacers in this one, not even West’s attempt to motivate his troops with a hard foul on Horford midway through the second quarter. It wouldn’t have helped given their abysmal shooting, but Indiana certainly didn’t do themselves any favors either. They complained when calls didn’t go their way and didn’t corral the 50/50 balls they did at home.

It’s hard to imagine a team coached by Vogel coming out in Game 4 with the same lack of aggressive and urgency, but that doesn’t mean they’ll immediately rebound. The following would be a step in the right direction:

Get A Body On Horford

The Pacers feature a frontline with three defenders that can be categorized as above-average in most situations. It looked as though they were surprised to see Atlanta’s taller lineup, which allowed Horford and Smith to play over West and George. The easy way to get Atlanta out of that lineup would be to feed Hibbert early in hopes of getting Petro in foul trouble, forcing Drew to shift Smith/Horford back to the four/five. However, that would only summon Ivan Johnson, who was a game-high +21 on Saturday night. Horford was a monster in this game, notching 26 points and 16 rebounds. He had 27 points and 16 boards in Games 1 and 2 combined. Limiting him has to be Vogel’s top priority. The Pacers can win with Josh Smith going off, but not Horford.

Own The Paint

This relates to stopping Horford, but the Pacers were outscored 50-30 in the paint in Game 3 after winning the battle inside at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. George Hill, Lance Stephenson and George combined to shoot 6-for-26 from the field, but interior scoring leads to better perimeter looks. Hibbert attempted just eight shots in the loss, a number unacceptable despite the scoring margin.

Feeding Hibbert and West in the paint early establishes Indiana’s offense and lends itself to free throws and foul trouble.

An aside: If George is going to be guarded by Smith, Vogel could run more isolation plays through him on the perimeter. Smith is long enough to defend George at the three-point line with some space, but the threat also gives George the choice of what he wants to do. He attempted just two threes in Game 3 after a combined nine in the first two contests.

Take Better Care

Despite the lopsided score, the Pacers matched the Hawks in free throw attempts and won the rebounding battle by four. Owning the basketball is the key to Indiana winning playoff games even if they struggle to score points. The defense was good -- the Hawks shot 42.7 percent -- but the Pacers allowed 13 offensive rebounds.

Dominating the defensive glass isn’t the only way to own the basketball; you also have to limit turnovers. They had as many miscues (22) as field goals (22), never a recipe for success. The Hawks want to compile as many possessions as they can in transition, where the Pacers have looked poor, and they had a field day in that regard.

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