As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0” in July, we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list. 

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only player left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That is beyond unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to contracts over $5 million for 2013-14 this past off-season, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets

Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011) 

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Thomas until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the Taj Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011) 

Dallas Mavericks

Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets

Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors 

Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011) 

Houston Rockets

Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers

Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011) 

Los Angeles Clippers

Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Since the Lakers have to decide about amnesty during the first week after the July moratorium, they will not have enough information on Kobe’s progress to amnesty him. Furthermore, they would only yield a big benefit if Dwight Howard leaves the Lakers and we likely will not know that at such an early stage in the process. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of World Peace's onerous deal seems like the best play. 

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Shedding Rudy Gay’s big contract means that the Grizzlies do not have to amnesty anyone in order to avoid the biggest costs of the new luxury tax system. At the present time, the only salaries the team has on the books for 2014-15 are Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley Jr, Tayshaun Prince, Darrell Arthur and Tony Wroten. Add in a rookie or two and you still have a workable structure. At this point it feels more likely that Randolph would get traded than amnestied since he would still provide value to the team.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Mike Miller

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8 million final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. At this point, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not they retain either Monta Ellis or JJ Redick, look for Gooden to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks

Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Kendrick Perkins

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would have a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic 

Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011) 

Philadelphia 76ers

Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns

Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers

Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1 million) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 offseason when Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. With new ownership looking to make a splash, having some extra money this offseason could be useful to the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-2014 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Linas Kleiza, Andrea Bargnani

Most likely amnesty decision: Linas Kleiza in 2013. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line. With that, getting a little bit more space in terms of the apron/tax line would be good for the Raptors if they are unwilling to bite the bigger bullet in the form of Bargnani.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards

Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

For a vast majority of the season, I thought this Denver Nuggets team stood out as a real contender in the Western Conference. Their excellent depth meshed perfectly with their aggressive style of play and a mile high home court advantage, creating a team that would be extremely difficult to take down in at least three of the tilts in a seven game series. Even as their system began to work better, injuries to Danilo Gallnari (who will not play in the series) and Kenneth Faried (who likely will play but may sit out the earliest games) change how they will work as a postseason team.

The other major factor here comes in the form of their opponents. In halfcourt sets, the Warriors’ organizing philosophy has been to try to deny teams scoring chances at the rim and giving up three point shots. That manifested itself in Golden State yielding the most three-point attempts in the entire league per game (23.8) and the fourth-least attempts at the rim per game (also 23.8). The second figure becomes more impressive because the Warriors were third from the bottom in the entire NBA when it comes to turnovers. Since turnovers often yield looks at the rim in transition, they had to do even better in halfcourt situations to offset those figures.

Against many teams, building a defense with the release valve being three-pointers (often open ones) can be devastating. The corner three is the second-best shot in basketball behind shots at the rim and teams who know and game plan for Golden State can make sure that these looks go to the best players. However, the Nuggets as presently constituted do not have the personnel to exploit the Warriors’ defensive weakness and in fact could be victimized by it.

This season, five different Nuggets attempted 2.9 or more threes per game- Gallinari, Corey Brewer, Andre Iguodala, Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler. Of that group, Chandler was the only one to shoot better than 40 percent while Lawson and Gallinari shot 36.6 percent and 37.3 percent, respectively. Finally, Iguodala converted only 31.7 percent of his looks while Corey Brewer shot an abysmal 29.6 percent from deep. In fact, Corey Brewer was the third-worst of any player who attempted more than 250 threes this season, behind only Alexey Schved and Monta Ellis. Iguodala was fourth-worst.

With Gallinari out of commission for the season, this means that the group of players taking the shots the Warriors will give them contains as many bad shooters as good ones coming off a regular season where the poor gunners attempted more threes both total and per minute than the better shooters. Denver’s offense will require more discipline than they showed at any point during the regular season, including their improved performance over the final month.

Golden State would also be wise to understand Denver’s strengths and attempt to take them away from the Nuggets. Unlike nearly every NBA team, Denver can get quality minutes at the Center position every minute of every game thanks to Kosta Koufos and JaVale McGee. Both are good defensive players that can impact the opposing offense in different ways. However, by shifting around personnel the Warriors have the capability of neutralizing this strength. While the combination of David Lee and Carl Landry has plenty of defensive problems, they each have the ability to stretch the floor which must be respected by opposing bigs. Playing them together would get either Kosta or JaVale out of their comfort zone and leave both those players and the system susceptible to penetrators and unusual screen actions. Andre Iguodala in particular is an excellent defensive player but spending some time each game taking away the core of the Nuggets’ D would work incredibly well for the Warriors, particularly while Andrew Bogut is less than 100%.

The Warriors also need to be aware of Denver potentially putting Andre Iguodala or Corey Brewer on Stephen Curry since their length will cause him some problems and they each have enough lateral quickness to largely stay with him during sets. Exploiting those situations will require using two swingmen (like Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes) rather than Jarrett Jack because the bigger players can exploit Ty Lawson or Andre Miller more than Jack can. Golden State should also use substitutes to maximize their opportunities when George Karl plays Miller and Lawson together because their collective limitations in terms of size, shooting, and defense can be exploited.

One final reason I am picking the Warriors in this series is George Karl. He has done a fantastic job this season (I had him second for Coach of the Year) and has had an admirable career. However, his teams have consistently underperformed in the playoffs. Since the 2001-2002 season, Karl’s teams have made the playoffs nine times and have advanced beyond the first round once. Furthermore, despite having three division champions, since he became the Denver head coach nine seasons ago the average number of wins per playoff series for his team sits at 1.9. That 1.9 wins per series includes a trip to the Western Conference Finals with Melo- without that run the Nuggets have average 1.3 wins per playoff series with all first round exits.

My best guess of how this goes down is that the Warriors sneak one of the first two in Denver, then get both wins at Oracle, lose Game 5 in Denver and then take the series at home in Game 6. The Nuggets have done a superb job this season but may have run into exactly the wrong team while not having their full arsenal.

We pulled our Team Transactions Data over the previous 10 Trade Deadline periods to examine the levels of activity in period leading up to the deadline.

The below is an annual average of the number of players acquired by each team (click on any of the below links to see a year-by-year infographic).

Sacramento Kings: 2.7
New York Knicks: 2.3
Houston Rockets: 2.2
Oklahoma City Thunder: 1.8
Cleveland Cavaliers: 1.7
New Orleans Hornets: 1.7
Denver Nuggets: 1.6
Memphis Grizzlies: 1.6
Charlotte Bobcats: 1.6
Atlanta Hawks: 1.5
Brooklyn Nets: 1.5
Milwaukee Bucks: 1.5
Portland Trail Blazers: 1.5
Chicago Bulls: 1.4
Golden State Warriors: 1.3
Boston Celtics: 1.2
Orlando Magic: 1.2
Los Angeles Clippers: 1.1
Phoenix Suns: 1.1
Washington Wizards: 1.1
Dallas Mavericks: 1.0
Minnesota Timberwolves: 1.0
Toronto Raptors: 0.9
Philadelphia 76ers: 0.8
Utah Jazz: 0.7
Indiana Pacers: 0.6
Los Angeles Lakers: 0.6
Miami Heat: 0.6
Detroit Pistons: 0.5
San Antonio Spurs: 0.5

The following are the collective breakdowns by year:
2003: 14
2004: 36
2005: 48
2006: 44
2007: 22
2008: 45
2009: 45
2010: 51
2011: 51
2012: 29