As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0” in July, we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list. 

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only player left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That is beyond unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to contracts over $5 million for 2013-14 this past off-season, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets

Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011) 

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Thomas until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the Taj Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011) 

Dallas Mavericks

Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets

Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors 

Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011) 

Houston Rockets

Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers

Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011) 

Los Angeles Clippers

Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Since the Lakers have to decide about amnesty during the first week after the July moratorium, they will not have enough information on Kobe’s progress to amnesty him. Furthermore, they would only yield a big benefit if Dwight Howard leaves the Lakers and we likely will not know that at such an early stage in the process. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of World Peace's onerous deal seems like the best play. The addition of Chris Duhon makes Steve Blake a slightly greater possibility but he still appears moveable via trade and provides fair value to the team.

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Shedding Rudy Gay’s big contract means that the Grizzlies do not have to amnesty anyone in order to avoid the biggest costs of the new luxury tax system. At the present time, the only salaries the team has on the books for 2014-15 are Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley Jr, Tayshaun Prince, Darrell Arthur and Tony Wroten. Add in a rookie or two and you still have a workable structure. At this point it feels more likely that Randolph would get traded than amnestied since he would still provide value to the team.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Mike Miller

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8 million final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. At this point, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not they retain either Monta Ellis or JJ Redick, look for Gooden to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks

Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Kendrick Perkins

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would have a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic 

Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011) 

Philadelphia 76ers

Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns

Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers

Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1 million) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 offseason when Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. With new ownership looking to make a splash, having some extra money this offseason could be useful to the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-2014 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Linas Kleiza, Andrea Bargnani

Most likely amnesty decision: Linas Kleiza in 2013. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line. With that, getting a little bit more space in terms of the apron/tax line would be good for the Raptors if they are unwilling to bite the bigger bullet in the form of Bargnani.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards

Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

We pulled our Team Transactions Data over the previous 10 Trade Deadline periods to examine the levels of activity in period leading up to the deadline.

The below is an annual average of the number of players acquired by each team (click on any of the below links to see a year-by-year infographic).

Sacramento Kings: 2.7
New York Knicks: 2.3
Houston Rockets: 2.2
Oklahoma City Thunder: 1.8
Cleveland Cavaliers: 1.7
New Orleans Hornets: 1.7
Denver Nuggets: 1.6
Memphis Grizzlies: 1.6
Charlotte Bobcats: 1.6
Atlanta Hawks: 1.5
Brooklyn Nets: 1.5
Milwaukee Bucks: 1.5
Portland Trail Blazers: 1.5
Chicago Bulls: 1.4
Golden State Warriors: 1.3
Boston Celtics: 1.2
Orlando Magic: 1.2
Los Angeles Clippers: 1.1
Phoenix Suns: 1.1
Washington Wizards: 1.1
Dallas Mavericks: 1.0
Minnesota Timberwolves: 1.0
Toronto Raptors: 0.9
Philadelphia 76ers: 0.8
Utah Jazz: 0.7
Indiana Pacers: 0.6
Los Angeles Lakers: 0.6
Miami Heat: 0.6
Detroit Pistons: 0.5
San Antonio Spurs: 0.5

The following are the collective breakdowns by year:
2003: 14
2004: 36
2005: 48
2006: 44
2007: 22
2008: 45
2009: 45
2010: 51
2011: 51
2012: 29 

Before the season started, many questioned whether James Harden could thrive without Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Three months later, he looks like a lock for the All-Star Game. After several years of wandering in the wake of Yao Ming’s retirement, the Houston Rockets have a new franchise player, a 23-year-old already in the discussion for best shooting guard in the NBA. The next step is building a team around him that maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses.

Harden has prototypical size (6’5, 220) and shooting ability (career 36 percent from beyond the arc) for a shooting guard, but what separates him from his peers is his uncommon feel for the game. Unlike most great players, Harden isn’t a plus athlete for his position, he just does an incredible job of maximizing his physical abilities. He’s a young player with the game of a 40-year-old man. If he can attack a defense in space, he will almost always make the right decision. LeBron James is the only non-traditional point guard in the NBA who averages more assists a game than Harden (5.3).

What Harden does have is exceptional length (6’11 wingspan) and timing. Very few guards can be efficient when they start playing amongst the trees in the lane. Harden’s ability to extend the ball in front of him and create contact with defenders allows him to draw fouls at an absurd rate. Dwight Howard is the only player in the NBA who averages more free-throw attempts a game than Harden at 9.8. And since he’s rarely jumping very high off the ground, Harden isn’t as likely to get injured as guys like Dwyane Wade.

He is one of the rare players who can knock down three-pointers, draw free throws and distribute the ball at an elite level. Not only is that an unbelievably efficient combination of skills to have, stars with his skill-set make the game so much easier for their teammates. He creates shots for them with the ball in his hands and creates space for them just by spotting up off the ball. And by drawing fouls at the rim, he puts his team in the penalty earlier in the game and forces opposing team to go to their bench.

There isn’t a position in the NBA as thin as the SG; Harden’s success with Houston has moved him near the top of that very short list. Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Manu Ginobili are all in their 30’s while Brandon Roy’s comeback looks headed for a premature end. Eric Gordon is the only under-25 shooting guard in the NBA with Harden’s skill-set and he hasn’t been healthy in years. Even after a recent shooting slump that has coincided with a seven-game losing streak for Houston, Harden trails only Wade and Kobe in PER among two-guards. I’m going to give a shout-out to Ben McLemore of Kansas right here; he could be Harden’s greatest competition down the road.

However, as good as he is offensively, his lack of athleticism means he’ll never impact the game defensively as much as guys like Durant or Westbrook. On top of that, he has to spend most of his energy on the offensive end, where he’s responsible for an inordinate load of the Rockets offense. He’s their only player with a usage rating above 21. That’s where the rest of their roster becomes so important. Harden needs to be protected defensively, in much the same way Phoenix protected Steve Nash in the mid-2000’s. Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons are going to have a hard time guarding Westbrook and Durant in a seven-game series.

When Nash was winning MVP’s, his weakness on defense was never a big deal because he was protected by Shawn Marion and Raja Bell. Conversely, Nash made those guys better on offense by creating high-quality looks at the basket. You want players who complement your best player’s games, not replicate it. Harden, for example, was somewhat redundant in Oklahoma City, who are actually better offensively now that Durant has the ball in his hands more often.

The fit of Lin and Harden, playmaking guards who need the ball in their hands to be effective, has been problematic from the start. Defenses don’t need to respect Lin’s three-point shot (28 percent), which limits the space Harden has to work with in the half-court. The Rockets have made up for that by starting Patrick Patterson (36 percent) and Parsons (36 percent), but that creates a domino effect in terms of the number of athletes they  have on the floor. Ideally, they would have an elite shooter at the point guard position, allowing them to start at least one defensive-minded forward without compromising their floor spacing.

Lin is a credible NBA point guard with the ball in his hands, but he isn’t the playmaker or finisher Harden is. That’s why many have suggested that he be moved to the bench, where he could serve as the primary ball-handler on their second unit. It’s no coincidence his best game of the season, a 38-point 7-assist effort against San Antonio in December, came when Harden was out and he could dominate the basketball. The Rockets should sell Lin on the idea of being a sixth man, especially now that they may have found the ideal fit next to Harden.

Patrick Beverley, a 24-year-old PG whom they signed out of Europe in late December, has had an impressive NBA debut. He’s always had the physical talent to be an NBA player; he just kind of slipped through the cracks as a second-round pick who declared out of school too early. A hyper-athletic 6’1, 185 guard with a 6’6 wingspan, Beverley has the tools to be an excellent defensive player. If he can knock down shots and not turn it over, he could end up becoming a combination of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.  He’s only played in four games, but his lengthy experience in Europe suggests he’s capable of stepping into a role in an NBA rotation immediately.

Even if Beverley doesn’t work out, since Harden can essentially run the point himself, it won’t be hard to find an athletic guard who can shoot to put next to him. Just as important is upgrading at the forward position next to Parsons. Last year’s second-round pick from Florida is a very nice passer at shooter at 6’10, 215, but he’ll be more effective defending the weaker defensive player upfront in a seven-game series. Patterson and Marcus Morris, the two 6’8+ combo forwards they play at the 4, don’t have the physical tools to be an elite defensive player. The good news for Houston is that, much like with Beverley, their front office’s eye for talent may have already found them an answer.

Terrence Jones, their rookie power forward from Kentucky, has been overshadowed by the soap opera surrounding Royce White. Nevertheless, his skill-set fits better with what the Rockets need. At 6’9 250 with a 7’2 wingspan, he’s bigger than Patterson and Morris and far more athletic. As a sophomore at Kentucky, he averaged 7.2 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.3 steals a game while also displaying the ability to create his own shot out of the high post. He slipped in the draft because he was overshadowed by Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but he was a key component of the Wildcats NCAA championship season. I think his best-case scenario is somewhere around Josh Smith.

In the long-term, the Rockets recent struggles may end up being for the best. Their current ceiling is a first-round exit; they can’t afford to ignore upside plays like integrating Jones and Beverley into the starting line-up. Daryl Morey is a big picture guy. Even if Jones doesn’t have the upside to allow them to compete with the Thunder and the Clippers down the road, he could help them get in on the seemingly inevitable Kevin Love sweepstakes two years from now. Harden may be the best SG in the NBA by that time, but as Wade and Kobe’s careers have shown, he’ll still need a lot of help to make the Rockets a legitimate championship contender.

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