Unfortunately for the Golden State Warriors, the Collective Bargaining Agreement works against them in a very real way this summer. The rumors that Dwight Howard has interest in the Warriors can only be construed as incredibly encouraging in terms of the development of the franchise, but acquiring him would be very difficult to accomplish this summer.

One of the new CBA rules that goes into effect this summer limits teams who are paying the luxury tax. In short, there is a salary level above the luxury tax called the apron ($4 million in salary above the luxury tax line) and teams over that line cannot do transactions like signing a player to the full mid-level exception, using the Bi-Annual exception, and starting this year they cannot acquire players via sign-and-trade. That limitation means that a team cannot sign a player and immediately trade them to a team over the apron, not the other way around. On top of that, doing any of these three things turns what usually functions as a soft cap that franchises can go over for times into a hard one, meaning that teams using these transactions absolutely cannot go over the apron for any period of time for any reason that season.

While we do not know exactly where the luxury tax line will be for 2013-14, it stood at $70.307 million last season so the apron was $74.307 million.

At the present moment, if Brandon Rush takes his player option and Carl Landry declines his, the Warriors sit at $71,680,588 with 13 players on the books (Curry, Lee, Bogut, Thompson, Barnes, Green, Ezeli, Rush, Jefferson, Biedrins, Bazemore, Jones and Machado). Even without any money allotted for Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry, the team would have approximately $2.6 million under the apron with a small amount of wiggle room depending on guarantees to the minimum guys. If they acquired Howard via sign-and-trade, the apron number would become a hard cap, so they would effectively need to either shed 2013-14 salary in the sign-and-trade, or fill out the roster with bare bones players.

On top of all that, the Lakers would have to agree to send Dwight to a division rival, which may be dicey in and of itself, but would also require the Warriors to give up some players of value. While the Lakers would ask for Stephen Curry, a deal using either Klay Thompson or Harrison Barnes would likely still be palatable enough to make a trade possible. To balance the salaries Bob Myers would likely have to give up either Andrew Bogut or David Lee (almost definitely Bogut) since Biedrins and Jefferson provide no value beyond their expiring contracts. My best guess at a trade the Lakers would accept is Thompson or Barnes, Bogut, and either Draymond Green or Festus Ezeli for Howard.

Dwight’s maximum salary for 2013-14 stands at $20,513,178 since that is a five percent increase on his current salary. As such, the deal I laid out above (Klay, Bogut, and Festus for Dwight, let’s say) would actually cost the Warriors an extra $3.13 million and put them over the apron without corresponding moves.

Getting Dwight this summer sits within the realm of possibility but it would come at a steep, steep cost unless the Lakers are more generous than expected.

The other factor looming over this whole situation has to be the way the Warriors chose to load up their 2013-14 cap figure. By using the amnesty provision on Charlie Bell’s expiring contract back in 2011, the Golden State front office lost the ability to shed either Andris Biedrins or David Lee’s contract at any point over the next few seasons. Using the amnesty on either would have given the Warriors the flexibility to make a move for Dwight Howard right now without the apron coming into play.

What makes matters even more challenging this summer was the decision to effectively purchase the 2012 draft pick used to select Festus Ezeli for Richard Jefferson’s $11 million contract for 2013-14. Steven Jackson’s deal expires this summer and thus would have become cap space at this point. Switching that move or the amnesty decision would have given the Warriors enough space under the apron to acquire Dwight and retain either Jack or Landry with a little bit left over.

While it would make dramatically more sense to acquire a high-level free agent next summer when the team has cap space, the Warriors conceptually could trade for Dwight Howard this summer even though key decisions made over the last few years created a substantially more difficult path to doing so.

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As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0” in July, we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list. 

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only player left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That is beyond unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to contracts over $5 million for 2013-14 this past off-season, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets

Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011) 

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Thomas until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the Taj Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011) 

Dallas Mavericks

Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets

Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors 

Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011) 

Houston Rockets

Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers

Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011) 

Los Angeles Clippers

Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Since the Lakers have to decide about amnesty during the first week after the July moratorium, they will not have enough information on Kobe’s progress to amnesty him. Furthermore, they would only yield a big benefit if Dwight Howard leaves the Lakers and we likely will not know that at such an early stage in the process. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of World Peace's onerous deal seems like the best play. 

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Shedding Rudy Gay’s big contract means that the Grizzlies do not have to amnesty anyone in order to avoid the biggest costs of the new luxury tax system. At the present time, the only salaries the team has on the books for 2014-15 are Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley Jr, Tayshaun Prince, Darrell Arthur and Tony Wroten. Add in a rookie or two and you still have a workable structure. At this point it feels more likely that Randolph would get traded than amnestied since he would still provide value to the team.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Mike Miller

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8 million final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. At this point, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not they retain either Monta Ellis or JJ Redick, look for Gooden to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks

Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Kendrick Perkins

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would have a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic 

Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011) 

Philadelphia 76ers

Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns

Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers

Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1 million) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 offseason when Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. With new ownership looking to make a splash, having some extra money this offseason could be useful to the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-2014 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Linas Kleiza, Andrea Bargnani

Most likely amnesty decision: Linas Kleiza in 2013. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line. With that, getting a little bit more space in terms of the apron/tax line would be good for the Raptors if they are unwilling to bite the bigger bullet in the form of Bargnani.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards

Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

Dwight Howard has a decision to make, the biggest he’s faced since deciding to enter the 2004 NBA Draft straight out of high school. An unrestricted free agent for the first time in his nine-year career, Howard will have to choose the franchise that best positions him to grow as a player and compete for championships. His future home, however, isn’t the only choice he’ll need to make this summer.

The time has come for Howard to decide whether he wants to be an all-time great player, or just a player that was good for his time.

We’ve seen glimpses of both.

At times Howard has been the league’s best two-way player, impacting the game in a way that few players can. Then there are the times where he looks limited offensively, easily frustrated and overly emotional to the officiating and evaluations of his game. It’s a hurdle that he must clear before he can consistently lead a franchise into the future.

Howard has no peer in the league. There isn’t another center with his physical gifts or potential. Most people look at Howard and expect him to be dominant like Shaquille O’Neal or as impactful as the league’s other stars. Howard should be the chief rivals of LeBron James and Kevin Durant en route to the NBA Finals, but he’s not. There’s still a lot of work for Howard to reach his potential. It’s within his reach to be one of the most dominant, imposing and successful players in the league, anyone can see the potential. Getting there will require a lot self-inventory, maturity and hard work. The results of that work come down to how badly he wants to be great, the rest will take care of itself.

Choosing where to spend the next phase of his career is a huge step in the process. Vowing to make a decision that makes him happy, Howard has an opportunity to get things back on track by showing growth in an area that he has a few struggles – decision making.

There are many that believe staying with the Lakers is the key to Howard reaching his potential, which is ridiculous. Wearing the uniform of the Lakers isn’t a prerequisite to greatness. Being great isn’t exclusive to a city or team, especially the Lakers, even though certain teams have enjoyed more success than others. Players, and the right coaches, make franchises great. They generate interest, produce a quality product and excite their fans. Truth be told, staying with the Lakers doesn’t guarantee Howard anything other than an extra year and about $30 million.

The 27-year-old center can’t allow the nostalgia or media pressure to dictate his decision. This contract is his most important and will position him to compete with James, Durant and the other talented teams around the NBA for years to come. He doesn’t have time to wait for a team to find pieces. He doesn’t have time to wait for a coach to adjust his system and learn to coach defense. Howard has even less time to risk his future on the chance that an organization can find him a co-star that’s good enough to compete and young enough to grow with.

Those things, however, are specific to a team and solely their responsibility to fix before recruiting a player; Howard’s responsibility is now to himself.

He can make any choice he wants and there isn’t a wrong choice so long as he’s happy with the decision he makes. But the next step in his progression is non-negotiable. Howard can’t come back for the 2013-14 season as the same player. To his defense, the injuries had a great impact on his game. But the growth of individual skills will always compensate the loss of athletic ability. Happiness will provide the extra patience needed to deal with unfavorable officiating. The lessons learned over the past two seasons must be on display for the world to see.

Where Howard plays doesn’t matter, but it’s time for him to take the next step and be the player that many of us know he should be.