Click here for Part 1.

Virginia: I am worried about this Virginia projection. It depends critically on how Top 100 recruit, freshman point guard London Perrantes plays. But on paper, everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all), back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.

Georgetown: Greg Whittington should return from an academic suspension, incoming transfer Josh Smith is a dominant offensive player, and Georgetown brings back the majority of the players from a dominant defensive team. Thus picking the Hoyas for the Top 25 makes sense even without Otto Porter. But I am very concerned how much the offense will depend on mid-year transfer Josh Smith. Smith is a natural offensive player, and seems like the perfect high-post player to make the Georgetown offense flow. But will he be able to integrate into the lineup (and get in shape) for a 3 month run? Statistically he looks like a good fit, but betting on Josh Smith has been a bad bet the last two seasons.

Iowa: Iowa isn’t going to blow you out of the water with Top 100 recruits. But the majority of the lineup that went to the NIT final will be back. The time for winning is now. Don’t forget that the team welcomes Wisconsin transfer Jarrod Uthoff.

Ohio St: The loss of DeShaun Thomas shouldn’t hurt the Buckeye defense that much. And because players like Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross are only starting to show signs of how good they can be, the offense might not slip that much either.

Colorado: Another very young but talented team last year. People are raving about how good Josh Scott could be in 2013-2014.

Memphis: The five Memphis seniors are great players and this might be Josh Pastner’s best team. But the addition of a dominant recruiting class should be the x-factor that gets the team deeper into the tournament this year. If Tarik Black transfers (which is speculated), Memphis might fall a little bit in these projections, but not that much. This team has depth.

Creighton: They are only here if Doug McDermott comes back.

Connecticut: The best thing about your seniors transferring out is that all your main talent has eligibility left.

Syracuse: On paper they have the pieces they need to replace their departing stars. Duke transfer Michael Gbinije should be a nice wing player to replace James Southerland. Tyler Ennis can step in at point-guard. But if Michael Carter-Williams isn’t back (what I project above), Trevor Cooney is still going to be logging major minutes. The lack of options on the perimeter is still a concern.

UCLA: The Wear twins are going to be seniors next year. It only seems like we’ve been talking about them forever because of the transfer season.  I’m assuming Kyle Anderson sticks around, because where is he going to go? Between Anderson, a healthy Jordan Adams, and a more developed Tony Parker, UCLA has enough talent to compete for a Pac-12 title again. This may seem like a low ranking given what UCLA brings back, but remember UCLA was only 47^th in the Pomeroy Rankings last year. I’m predicting they will be better on offense and defense.

Alabama: This might be my most unorthodox Top 25 pick. Anthony Grant teaches outstanding defense, so Alabama will always be competitive in that area. And Bama brings just about everyone back, so expect a more coherent offense from the start of the season. There is no excuse for losing to Mercer or Tulane this season. The model particularly expects Devonta Pollard to take a big step forward. The freshman forward often looked unprepared last year, but he was a Top 25 recruit out of high school, and he should develop into a more polished post player. Plus Alabama adds two more Top 100 forwards to the rotation, which should help as well. My biggest concern is that far too often in recent seasons, Grant’s returning upperclassman haven’t delivered. Last year it was Andrew Steele’s injuries that caused him to fall apart and miss the end of the season. In previous seasons it was off-court issues that derailed the team. But on paper, there is no reason Alabama shouldn’t take a step forward and become an elite team next year.

Pittsburgh: It really helps that Pittsburgh can develop underclassmen to replace its seniors. Tray Woodall is gone, but James Robinson played point guard very well last season, and should keep the team playing at a high level.

New Mexico: The starting five from the MWC champs could have been back if not for the early entry of Tony Snell. But even without Snell or head coach Steve Alford, the experience the other four starters have working together should ensure another strong season. New head coach Craig Neal might not have the most credentials, but all he has to do is make sure the starters don’t transfer, and New Mexico will compete for a MWC championship again.

Tennessee: The preseason loss of Jeronne Maymon derailed Tennessee’s plans. But with Maymon, Jarnell Stokes, Trae Golden, and Jordan McRae, Tennessee has an impressive lineup coming back.

Kansas: A very good comparison for the 2014 Jayhawks might be the 2013 Tar Heels. I fully expect Bill Self to make Perry Ellis into a high volume scorer next season, just as I thought James McAdoo would become a star last year. And there are some impact recruits like Wayne Selden. But this is still a complete rebuild on offense. Bill Self’s teams always play outstanding defense, and he’ll need that to stay in the Top 25. Kansas could desperately use Andrew Wiggins to commit to the school if they want to win a 10^th straight Big 12 title, but it helps that the rest of the conference should be down next year.

Missing

Wichita St.: Last year Gregg Marshall returned only 35% of his minutes so with 54% of his minutes returning this year, winning should be a piece of cake. Seriously, if he can build another dominant team with unheralded recruits, he might be the best coach on the planet.

Indiana: The Hoosiers have a lot of good pieces, but the model doesn’t like how they fit together. It concludes based on last year’s substitution patterns that Yogi Ferrell, Jeremy Hollowell, Remy Abell, and Will Sheehey will see plenty of action. And they just aren’t the most effective offensive players. Ideally the younger players will see a lot of playing time early, and some of them will become stars, but it should be a transition year.

Miami: The Hurricanes don’t have enough incoming talent to replace what they lose.

Providence: The model questions whether Ed Cooley is a good enough defensive coach. Personally, based on what Providence did late in the year, I think they probably will have a solid defensive team next season. But getting elite talent to commit to defense isn’t easy. It certainly didn’t happen in January this year. And if Ricardo Ledo goes pro, they aren’t even in the conversation.

VCU: Troy Daniels (and his 124 made three pointers) is gone, and this isn’t a team loaded with elite talent. But the system should keep them in the Top 25 discussion again next year.

St. Louis: Very close.

Gonzaga: Sam Dower was a solid backup forward, but it is really asking too much for him to replace Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris. Losing two high volume shooters is going to lower the efficiency of all the returning players.

Oregon: They lose a ton of value with their seniors. They could have really used that Aaron Gordon commitment.

Mississippi: Marshall Henderson is back, but three key starters are gone.

UNLV: Mike Moser may be transferring to Washington, but even if Moser comes back, they lost a lot of production this off-season.

St. John’s: D’Angelo Harrison says he wants to return to the team, and they will be better than people think.

Maryland: Even without Alex Len they will be an upper division ACC team.

Villanova: Lots of solid pieces.

Coming in the next three months:

1)      Updated rankings when early entrant decisions become final.

2)      Where the lineup-based model went right and wrong in year one, and how it can be improved.

3)      Conference projections for the top conferences. See the shockingly low projections for teams like Temple and Oregon.

One of the things that stood out in Lance Armstrong’s interview with Oprah Winfrey was how he rationalized doping under a “win at all costs” mentality. As a sports fan, it is hard not to slip into that mentality at times. In the end, you want your opponent’s best player to foul out. You want your opponent to miss their free throws. You want things to break your team’s way. You don’t just root for your team to be good, you root for them to be lucky too.

(After all, almost no one wins a national title without a few breaks along the way. This is the reason Arizona’s streak of beating three #1 seeds in the 1997 tournament remains so special. Almost everyone gets lucky and faces a few weaker teams at some point.)

But I also think it is fair to say that the more sports one watches, the more important it is to not just win, but to also win the right way.

For example, there is nothing more frustrating in college basketball then when a player gets hit with an elbow and exaggerates their reaction. It is perfectly smart to do so, because any elbow is an automatic flagrant foul, two free throws and the ball. But if a team wins or pulls away in a game because of this call, especially when the elbow contact was incidental, it certainly feels wrong.

Similarly, if a team wins after a bank-shot, that is less satisfying. (The Arizona – Colorado game from Jan. 3 might have been the first time that neither team could pick up a truly satisfying win. Colorado would have won the game with a banked shot at the end. But instead, Arizona won in OT when the refs waived off the shot, breaking the NCAA rule about indisputable video evidence in the process.)

This is also why so many fans find Kentucky’s recent success so frustrating. They view it as unseemly to recruit so many one-and-done players. Whether anyone proves John Calipari has done something wrong recruiting players to Kentucky is not the point. For many people, the perception will always be that his style is not the right way to win.

And that is why Gonzaga vs Butler on Saturday night was the perfect summary of what people feel is right about college basketball. The game was being playing in Indiana, where the movie Hoosiers defined team sport. And the game featured two programs that define winning the right way. Neither team wins by engaging in ugly recruiting battles. Both teams have done a fabulous job graduating four year players. And despite offers to coach in BCS leagues, both coaches have chosen to stay with their programs. Both coaches have realized that there is more to sports than just trying to maximize money and maximize their ability to recruit NBA draft picks.

And of course with this backdrop, it was the ultimate hustle play that decided the game. Butler’s 6’4” Roosevelt Jones had been defending Gonzaga’s 7’0” Kelly Olynyk all day. Jones had even blocked an Olynyk shot down the stretch (which sort of defies the laws of physics). And on the games ultimate play, Jones fought for space, stole the ball from Olynyk, and drove for the game-winning shot.

Sure, maybe in a few years, we’ll be complaining about how Brad Stevens teams do not win the right way. We’ll say they mug teams and ruin the game of basketball. (And if you watch the steal in slow-motion, Gonzaga fans may have reason to be upset about the contact that preceded that steal.) But for now, the world will continue to view it another way. An under-sized player made the ultimate hustle play leading to his team’s upset win. It was just two points, but it symbolized so much more.

One other game note: I loved the similarity between these two teams. With 1:24 and 24 seconds left in the game, the two teams scored on plays that were mirror images of one another. With 1:24 remaining, Kelly Olynyk backed Roosevelt Jones deeper into the lane and sealed off a crease for Elias Harris to drive for a lay-up. Then with 24 seconds left, Butler ran the exact same play.  Andrew Smith backed Olynyk into the paint allowing Alex Barlow to drive for a lay-up. With two teams this evenly matched, you cannot make this stuff up.

There are plenty of things worth discussing after this weekend. Is this the first time North Carolina looked like a Top 25 team? Did Washington’s home loss to Utah prove that the Huskies fast Pac-12 start was fool’s gold? Has Florida St. finally hit rock bottom after scoring 36 points against Virginia? And there were lots of critical injuries that deserve more examination. What has happened to Missouri without Laurence Bowers? But that analysis (particularly the injury numbers) will be saved for another week.

On a Saturday with 154 games and numerous dramatic endings, I am going to stick to the action. And with so many games coming down to the wire, I am not even going to have time to recount the drama of Texas leading Kansas, or Connecticut nearly coming back against Pittsburgh. Today I am only going to focus on games decided by the slimmest of margins.

Quantity leads to Quality

-Rutgers has never started 4-2 in Big East play, but they had a chance on Saturday. After a driving lay-up by Rutger’s Eli Carter cut the lead to one point, Rutger’s Mike Poole tied up Notre Dame’s Eric Atkins. The possession arrow favored the Scarlet Knights, and that meant that Rutgers had a chance to win the game. Rutgers once again fed Eli Carter, but this time Carter over-penetrated, was called for an offensive foul for running over Notre Dame’s Scott Martin, and Carter saw his shot blocked away by Notre Dame’s Jack Cooley for good measure. And Rutgers once again failed to achieve a 4-2 market in conference play.

-I’m going to continue to curse the limited television distribution of the Pac-12 Network by pointing out this one stat. In the Oregon St. vs USC game, the lead changed hands 8 times in the final 2:52 of the game. Aaron Fuller gave USC the lead for the last time with 5 seconds left.

-In an nearly equally dramatic game, Texas A&M’s Fabyon Harris hit a jump shot to give the Aggies a one point lead with 19 seconds left, but Alabama’s Trevor Lacey hit an even tougher jumper to retake the lead seconds later.

-And what about what happened in Blacksburg, Virginia? Virginia Tech’s Marquis Rankin, Wake Forests’s Travis McKie, and Virginia Tech’s Robert Brown all hit shots to give their team the lead in the final 45 seconds. And then it looked like Wake Forest would take the lead one more time. Wake placed its shooters on the left side of the floor, and using a rub-screen, Wake Forest’s CJ Harris seemed to have a wide-open drive for a lay-up. But several Virginia Tech players drove in defensively at the last minute which caused Harris to miss the lay-up. And when Wake Forest’s Tyler Cavanaugh missed the put-back, Virginia Tech held on for a one point win. (I still cannot believe Wake Forest didn’t make either the first lay-up or the put-back.)

-And failures were common in other games. Trailing Nebraska by two points at home, Penn St.’s Jermaine Marshall missed two free throws with 16 seconds left and Nebraska hung on for the narrow victory.

-Trailing Michigan St. by two with 30 seconds left, Ohio St.’s DeShaun Thomas missed a three, and the Spartans hung on to win. Ohio St. stayed in the game by hitting ten threes, including six by Thomas, but despite 28 from Thomas on the day, he couldn’t hit the go-ahead shot.

-Creighton’s Ethan Wragge had two three point shots to tie in the final seconds against Wichita St., but missed both. A lot of people are going to criticize Creighton for not getting Doug McDermott the ball in those situations, but Wragge has shot over 40% from beyond the arc as a freshmen, sophomore, and junior, and he already has 46 threes this season. Wragge certainly was not a bad choice for the last second shot.

-Meanwhile, Georgetown’s Otto Porter had 21 in the game, but lost control of the ball in the final seconds, and didn’t get off a shot while his team trailed by one at South Florida. Porter’s turnover allowed the Bulls earned their first Big East win on the season.

-And so it would appear that the rule was that hot shooters were not the place to go late in the game. But that wasn’t the case in Cincinnati where Cincinnati’s Sean Kilpatrick drove coast to coast at the end of overtime to break the tie and give his team the narrow win. Kilpatrick had 36 in the game in leading all scorers. Marquette came back after shooting 18% in the first half to score 50 in the second half, but even Davante’s Gardner’s old fashioned three point play at the end of overtime was not enough for Marquette thanks to Kilpatrick’s heroics.

Quality leads to Quality

Without question the endings were magical on Saturday. And I’ve often said that college basketball’s best asset is the sheer number of games, not the elite matchups. But just to make sure there was a cherry on top, Saturday’s featured game lived up to the hype too.

#6 Syracuse travelled to #1 Louisville for one of two meetings between the Big East favorites. Syracuse had won two of the last three Big East regular season titles and had won 26 of their last 27 Big East regular season games. The Orange featured possibly more depth in the front-court than any team in the nation, and by playing their traditional zone defense, they once again had a top five defensive team.

But if anyone was going to challenge Syracuse for the Big East crown, Louisville looked like the perfect candidate. The Cardinals went to the Final Four last season and had the best Points Per Possession (PPP) defense in the nation heading into Saturday’s game. But what was making Louisville into the possible Big East favorite was the emergence of Russ Smith. The former inconsistent sixth man had emerged as the Cardinal’s surprise national-player-of-the-year candidate by increasing his scoring average from 11 PPG to 19 PPG, increasing his shooting percentage, maintaining his incredible steal rate, and by continuing to pass the ball at a special rate for a score-first player. Clearly Saturday’s matchup had Final Four implications.

And the game started strong. For most of the first half on Saturday, it seemed like Louisville’s system might be Syracuse’s kryptonite. While Syracuse’s zone defense is as good as ever, by forcing 11 first half turnovers and pushing the ball in transition, Louisville was attacking the basket before Syracuse even had a chance to set up their zone. And when Louisville was forced into half-court situations, Louisville’s Gorgui Dieng emerged as the perfect zone beater. Dieng’s passing from the top of the key led to several beautiful lay-ups and dunks. Meanwhile Louisville was also using shot-fakes and other aggressive plays to drive the ball and carve up the zone in a way few teams had done this season.

But as well as Louisville was playing, Brandon Triche had every answer. The Syracuse guard put his team on his back making 8 of 8 first half shots including 4 of 4 shots from beyond the arc. I have never been a huge fan of Triche because I feel like people always mischaracterize his game. People raved about his point-guard play early in his career, but running an offense has never been his best trait. But now with freshman Michael Carter-Williams emerging as the team’s clear PG, Triche is free to become the elite scorer he was always meant to be. And on Saturday, by driving to the basket, and knocking down open threes in transition, Triche proved why fans have been praising him for all these years. Triche put his team on his back and refused to let Syracuse fall behind. Despite Louisville playing a seemingly perfect first half, the game was tied at 38 at the intermission.

And then in the second half, Triche’s teammates picked him up. Michael Carter-Williams started taking better care of the ball, Syracuse started forcing turnovers and blocking shots (even when Louisville made beautiful post-feeds), and in the final minute Syracuse had the lead. It wasn’t that Louisville had played poorly. Other than Louisville’s Peyton Siva missing some shots he normally makes (threes from the top of the key), Louisville never played flawed basketball.  But with time running down, Siva’s bad pass that led to a transition basket, and then a tough Dieng turnover under the basket, proved the difference in Louisville’s two point loss.

Syracuse now has the early lead in the Big East title race, but this game confirmed that both teams are legitimate Final Four contenders. Dieng’s passing and Triche’s scoring showed that if these teams continue to develop at a high rate, the top of the Big East may be better than we imagined.

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The game of the weekend featured Baylor ending Kentucky’s 55-game home winning streak. I’ve often described Scott Drew as an excellent recruiter, but without the in-season coaching ability of John Calipari. But for at least one afternoon, Scott Drew’s club ended up on top.

A couple of things fascinated me about the game.

First, John Calipari had Kyle Wiltjer on the bench for a long stretch in the second half. And he really had no choice. Wiltjer finished the day 1-for-11 from the floor, and he doesn’t have the defensive ability to stay in the game if his shot isn’t falling. Wiltjer has to find ways to provide value to his team other than just knocking down threes if he is going to be a true leader this season.

Second, I continued to be impressed with the all-around game of Baylor’s Isaiah Austin. I wish he would settle for a few less outside shots, but what I love about Austin is how he always looks extremely focused when on the floor. Even if he commits a turnover or takes a dumb shot, Austin doesn’t ever appear to get rattled.

Of course it is easy to describe an intangible like “quiet confidence” when a player is winning. And with Kentucky losing, it is easy to attack Nerlens Noel’s complete lack of an offensive game. But had Kentucky rallied to win, we’d instead be talking about all the little things Noel did to help his team win on Saturday. Noel had 16 rebounds and 6 steals in Kentucky’s loss, and Kentucky needed those defensive stops in a game where they shot so poorly. Watching so many freshmen play prominent roles made me want to do a quick update of how all the top recruits have fared this season. Here is a summary of the RSCI Top 80.  * = injured or ineligible for part of the season

Kentucky has had a problem with rebounding this year, but don’t blame Nerlens Noel. He needs some help from Willie-Cauley Stein and Kyle Wiltjer who are very poor defensive rebounders for their size.

If Kaleb Tarczewski and Steven Adams aren’t earning major minutes at this point in the season, it is hard to envisioning them becoming full scale stars later. When conference play rolls around, coaches tend to be less patient with their freshmen. Thus in many ways, percentage of minutes can be the most important stat this time of year.

Efficiency is also important, and Kyle Anderson’s 87.9 ORtg is terrible for an elite recruit. Point guards can struggle more than other players to adapt to the college game and Anderson was considered to have point guard skills out of high school. So perhaps Anderson’s struggles aren’t a complete surprise. On the other hand, Archie Goodwin and Marcus Smart weren’t really point guards in high school and they have adapted to the position. Goodwin’s turnover numbers are far too high, but he’s set up his teammates passably while setting up his own shot a lot. And Marcus Smart has made a tremendous transition to playing the point-guard position at the college level. Smart’s assist rate is much better than many players regarded as better passers out of high school.

I really think the problem with Anderson is that Ben Howland hasn’t figured out how to use him. Lots of coaches from Rick Pitino to John Thompson III have been able to feature great lanky passers, by positioning them at the high post and letting them see the whole floor. Anderson still has the potential to be that type of player, even if he has struggled early.

Grant Jerrett and Sam Dekker are the only players in the Top 20 who are not starting. Ricardo Ledo is ineligible. And Kris Dunn and Gary Harris are injured.

We start to see the typical drop-off when we get to recruits in the 11-20 range. DaJuan Coleman still has the profile of a player who will be a star in a future season, but right now he is having trouble earning playing time behind other quality big men on Syracuse’s roster. Meanwhile Cameron Ridley has been extremely disappointing for Texas. Certainly it hurts not to have Myck Kabongo eligible, but Kabongo’s absence doesn’t explain why a player like Ridley can be so passive against a team like Chaminade as he was in the Maui Invitational loss. The only good thing I can say about Ridley is that he has 19 blocks already, which is more than any other player in the Top 50 except Nerlens Noel.

Only Rasheed Sulaimon has become an undisputed crunch time star for his team. And Sulaimon’s efficiency is even more impressive when you look at Duke’s strength of schedule so far. Rodney Purvis has also played major minutes, but he is deferring a lot to his teammates at this point.

Glenn Robinson has been shockingly efficient at this point in the season, well above many of his peers on this list. But none of the players listed here are going to quite be in the national player of the year discussion because they are starting to become more passive offensive players. (I.e. the percentage of possessions used is now often below 20%) Only Danuel House is using a large number of possessions at this point in the rankings, and House plays for a Houston team that is in the process of upgrading its talent level in anticipation of joining the Big East.

This preseason I wrote how Marcus Paige would have some growing pains and be inconsistent this year, and the response I got was that Roy Williams had a ton of confidence in Paige and that I was being un-necessarily pessimistic. So far, with an 87.7 ORtg, neither Paige nor the Tar Heels are off to a great start. Paige has better days ahead, but North Carolina is also going to have a few more baffling losses before the season is over.

I was worried that Yogi Ferrell could have a similar negative impact on the Hoosiers because freshmen are often inconsistent. But Ferrell has thrived because he has worked within the offense. Instead of hogging the ball and needing to create shots, Ferrell has let his teammates work their isolation stuff, and provided key drives and dishes when needed. Ferrell has been happy to fill a role on the Hoosiers, and he has been everything Indiana needed.

Finally, Tony Parker’s minutes this year have been a joke, but with Josh Smith transferring, Parker at least has a chance of cracking the UCLA rotation now.

Notice how often a lack of playing time plagues players at this point in the rankings. I expected and still expect big things out of Kansas’ Perry Ellis and Iowa’s Adam Woodbury, but their coaches have only given them a taste of playing time at this point. The result is that some guys at this point in the rankings become unmitigated gunners. Hey Indiana’s Jeremy Hollowell, no matter how good you think you are, when the game with North Carolina was close late in the first half, Indiana didn’t want you bombing threes. They wanted Jordan Hulls bombing threes.

Xavier has played much better than many of us anticipated this season, and freshman Semaj Christon deserves a lot of that credit. Christon has out-played point-guards like Marcus Paige and realistically he’s been much more important than even Yogi Ferrell given his role in the offense. Christon is using nearly 30% of his team’s possessions, scoring at a prolific clip, and setting up his teammates without a rash of turnovers.

Most of Christopher Opekpa’s stats are pretty pedestrian, but not his block rate. Opekpa has 35 blocks at this point in the season, easily out-distancing any of the other freshmen in today’s column.

Nik Stauskas has been unbelievably efficient at this point and he is playing major minutes to boot. Some people expected Michigan to be a Top 10 team, but did they really expect Stauskas to outperform his peer level players by this much? His efficiency is due in large part to his teammates, and his shot-selection. But his performance is still notable. Stauskas has the most threes of anyone mentioned in this column (18 made) beating even UCLA’s super-aggressive shooter Jordan Adams.

Also give Adams credit. He’s shooting 26% of the time while maintaining a solid ORtg. Kyle Anderson may have been the third rated recruit for UCLA, but Adams has actually played like one.

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