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Public Service Announcement: Estimating Cap Space

On Friday, I was reading the comments on an ESPN article and noticed someone talking about how the Golden State Warriors will have $50 million in cap space in 2014. While asking why I was reading the comment section on an ESPN article might be a better question, it felt necessary and appropriate to put together a little primer on how to make an estimate of how much space a team will have to work with. Keep in mind this is a quick way of doing so rather than full depth.

The biggest misconception out there has to be that expiring contracts and cap room are the same thing. There are two ways that they diverge: teams can be over the cap (so not all of the salary coming off converts into cap room) and players/picks retained by the team in question do not go off the books entirely due to cap holds.

Since the commenter in question used the Golden State Warriors in 2014, I will use that as the example of how to make a rough estimation of cap space.

1. Find a contract site that you like and trust. Of the publically accessible sites, my personal favorite is Storytellers.

2. Estimate the salary cap for the year in question. While we never know the cap for future seasons ahead of time, I like to ballpark it by increasing the cap about $2 million per season in the future. Since the cap sits at $58 million right now, the rough guess for the 14-15 cap would be $62 million.

3. Figure out who the team in question has under contract for that season, giving your best guess for team and player options. In the case of the Warriors, they have David Lee, Stephen Curry, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green under contract for a combined $33,795,136. Theoretically, this would lead to $28.2 million in cap space. However, there are a few key additional steps to include.

4. If a team has less than 12 players under contract at any point in the summer, the league puts in cap holds at the minimum rookie salary (since theoretically they would have to use those to fill the spots if everything filled up) that take away space. The 14-15 Warriors have six players under contract, so six minimum salary holds at $507,336 for 14-15 would add up to $3,044,016 and reduce the estimated cap space to $25.16 million.

5. If the team has any players who they drafted but are playing in Europe, their cap holds come back on the books in the summer unless the team renounces them. Replace any minimum holds with these numbers if applicable (particularly guys like Nikola Mirotic taken in the first round).

6. Replace any minimum salary holds with draft pick holds for any first round picks between now and then. For the Warriors, this is a 2014 first round pick, so I will ballpark that as a $500k increase over the minimum hold. Their space is now down to $24.66 million.

7. Look at any players whose contracts expire between now and then. If the team will want to bring them back, adding in a number for a cap hold is a good idea. If the person will be paid more in that season than they were under their previous contract, a good rough number to use is their most recent salary multiplied by 1.5 (unless this puts the player over the max) since that is the minimum increase in the cap hold for a Bird rights free agent. If you think the player will make a smaller salary than that number, just use your estimate for their contract instead.

8. In the context of the Warriors, the big question mark here is Andrew Bogut. If they want to retain him, his cap hold will actually be a max hold for around $17.5 million. The only ways to reduce that number would be to sign him for less than that or renounce him and then be unable to use Bird rights to get him back. If you think the Warriors will retain Bogut, it would be best to estimate his salary (I’ll use $10 million the first year) and take that off the cap space. That would cut the number down to $15.33 million. That cap space reduces further if you think the team will bring Brandon Rush, Jarrett Jack, or Carl Landry back and/or sign any free agents this summer to multi-year contracts.

9. By now you have a good rough estimate on cap room. The last number to consider is the Mid-Level exception. As an exception, the MLE actually counts against the cap space unless a team officially chooses not to use it. For 2014, the non-taxpayer MLE is $5.305 million. If that $5.3 million takes up more room than the team has, they are effectively capped out and would use the MLE instead of cap space.

Hopefully this process can help explain how this process works and be used to make more accurate estimations of what teams will have to work with moving forward. 

Stephenson Has Become Pacers' X-Factor

There are many different theories about how to win in the NBA, but everyone would agree that consistency is a critical key to success.

Success for the Indiana Pacers seems to be more specific, especially in their series against the Miami Heat. The difference has been Lance Stephenson; they win when he plays well and lose when he doesn’t. It’s been this way the throughout the playoffs where Stephenson has shown the world he has potential to be a really good player. Stephenson has a PER of 16.4 in Pacers' wins during the playoffs and 4.3 in losses.

Stephenson is big, quick, confident and skilled. He’s also the definition of inconsistent and that’s not something the Pacers can afford as Stephenson has become a very important piece of the team.

If the Pacers have any chance to beat the Head and advance to the NBA Finals, Stephenson is going to need to find a way to play consistent basketball. It’s something Frank Vogel spoke about after their Game 4 victory in which Stephenson had his best game of the series.

"When he's bad, we typically struggle. When he's good, we're pretty darn good,” Vogel said. “I mean, that's the simplest way to put it, and it's very accurate. He's the barometer.”

The problem with the Pacers’ barometer is that when Stephenson is bad, well, he’s terrible. He’s terrible and talkative and nether is helping the team. It worked against the team in Game 5, as LeBron James used Stephenson’s struggles, chatter and his team’s slow half to get himself going and lead the Heat to the win.

"As a competitor, you love challenges, and Lance is one of those guys who likes to talk some," James said. "And I'm for it, too. I really don't start it, but if it gets started, then I love to do it. It's cool."

But the Pacers are a confident team and Stephenson’s confidence is part of what makes them who they are. He just needs to find a way to make sure his performance is matching up with his talking, or his words don’t mean anything. In fact, they’ll come to define his game in the eyes of fans and analysis that don’t understand why a guy that’s playing so bad has so much to say.

It’s something many young players go through, especially those second-tier guys that do have enough talent to impact a game. This is what Stephenson must learn, and he must learn it quick. His ability to rebound from a bad game, and follow up on a good one, will be the key to the Pacers extending the series to a Game 7.

Pacers Go Cold In Third, Heat Take Pivotal Game 5

After a strong first half, the Indiana Pacers went cold in the third quarter and fell into a hole they would never climb out of against the Miami Heat. A 90-79 loss on Thursday night in Game 5 leaves the Pacers with the unenviable task of having to win back-to-back games against the defending champions to extend their season.

Indiana played well enough to win in the first half, leading 44-40 after 24 minutes. They led by seven at one point and shot 51.4 percent from the field. There were some telling signs though. They turned the ball over eight times in the first two quarters. The Pacers finished with 17 miscues, which the Heat turned into 22 points.

The battle on the glass was also too close for Indiana's liking. They were just +3 at the half and Miami had nearly twice as many second-chance points. That would become a theme in the loss.

The game was tied 53-53 with 5:15 left in the third when the Heat ripped off the type of run that championship clubs are known for -- a 17-4 spurt that gave them a 70-57 advantage going into the final period.

After Paul George made a jumper to give the Pacers a 53-51 lead, Miami made eight of their next nine shots. Udonis Haslem, the hero in Game 3, caught fire yet again. He hit shots on three consecutive possessions during the run and finished with 16 points on 8-for-9 shooting.

Over that same stretch, the Pacers missed all five shots they attempted and committed two turnovers. Their only points came at the foul line, where they went 4-for-6 in the final three-and-a-half minutes of what turned out to be the deciding quarter.

Frank Vogel's club just didn't step up to the task late at AmericanAirlines Arena. They were ultimately too careless with the basketball and just sluggish overall. With 17 minutes left, they played to an even draw with the Heat but they didn't have enough to put themselves in position to win.

They didn't go down without any sort of fight, scoring the first five points of the fourth. However, the deficit was too big against Miami's tough defense. George canned an 18-footer to cut the lead to eight with more than nine minutes left, but the teams traded buckets for the next several possessions. When they desperately needed stops, the Pacers couldn't contain the Heat.

More On The Third

The third quarter decided the game. The Heat outscored the Pacers 30-13 and thoroughly outplayed them in all facets. Miami went 13-for-18 (72.2 percent) from the floor, 3-for-6 from three, grabbed nine rebounds and committed just one turnover. They assisted on eight of their 13 made field goals.

Conversely, the Pacers shot 3-for-14 (21.4 percent), grabbed just one offensive rebound despite 11 misses, were outrebounded by three in total and their five miscues led to nine easy points for the Heat.

The most bizarre part of the discrepancy was that despite Miami's overwhelming advantage, they only dominated a little more than five minutes.

Absent Backcourt

You know David West and Roy Hibbert are going to produce in this series, but Frank Vogel still needs something from his guards. George Hill and Lance Stephenson, who played significant roles in the Game 4 win on Tuesday night, logged 65 empty minutes in the most important game of the season.

Hill was 0-for-4 from the field, scoring his only point at the foul line. He had four assists and three steals, but committed three turnovers. The ball is safer in his hands than anyone else on the court, but Hill has had major control issues against the duo of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.

Stephenson was Bad Lance again. He had just four points on 2-for-7 shooting, including a few more bricks to add to his foundation. His three rebounds aren't terrible for a guard, but he was averaging 7.7 boards in the postseason heading into Game 5. Stephenson also had three turnovers and fouled out in just 28 minutes.

The Pacers can win without Hill and Stephenson exploding, but they at least need steady production from the pair. If West/Hibbert produce at their expected rate and Paul George doesn't stink Bankers Life Fieldhouse up, Hill/Stephenson need a combined line of around 22 points,10 rebounds and a few steals for Indiana to force a Game 7.

Haslem Strikes Again

Ray Allen is stilling searching for a rhythm, Shane Battier's biggest contribution has been hitting the floor and Chris Andersen had just four rebounds, but the Heat won because of a familiar unsung hero.

Udonis Haslem made eight of the nine shots he attempted to give LeBron all the help he needed to push Miami to within a win of a date with the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals.

The Heat shot 50.7 percent on Thursday night, but players not named LeBron or Udonis were just 17-for-40 (42.5 percent).

Dwyane Wade continues to look older than his 31 years (3-for-8, three turnovers), but this team can get by with him as their fourth-highest scorer. That's scary news for the Pacers (and Spurs).

Use The Advantage

The size advantage the Pacers have over the Heat has been well-documented. The frontline of George, West and Hibbert matches up extremely well against Miami's smaller roster. That's by design and they must hammer the glass much harder on Saturday night with their backs against the wall.

They outrebounded Miami by just one and had the same number of offensive rebounds (6). That is unacceptable, especially when West and Hibbert aren't hampered by fouls and Andersen, Haslem and Chris Bosh combine for just 12 rebounds.

After making it a point of emphasis following Game 4, the Heat did a great job of keeping Hibbert off the glass. He played 40 minutes, but had just six rebounds. He had six offensive rebounds the last time out. Hibbert was once again dominant offensively, scoring 22 points on 8-for-14 shooting, but Indiana needs him to clean up missed shots more than they need him to make his own.

George Snaps Out Of It

After two poor offensive performances, Paul George asserted himself to the tune of 27 points. He was efficient in doing so, making 11 of his 19 shots (including five threes) to go along with 11 rebounds and five assists. He did turn the ball over five times though. George is averaging four miscues per game in the playoffs.

It was a bit troublesome that George failed to attempt a free throw, but he did drive to the rim and his jumper was working. There were few fewer fouls called in Game 5 than we have become accustomed to in this series. Perhaps David Stern got on the horn with his officiating staff. There were 30 fouls whistled on Thursday night after Game 4 saw 55 fouls called.

The five threes were the most George has made in these playoffs and he nearly matched his shot attempts from the last two outings. He was a combined 7-for-20 in Games 3 and 4.

Pacers Use Early, Late Runs To Even Conference Finals

The Pacers dominated the Heat on the glass and in the paint to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece heading back to Miami.

Europe Interview: Mindaugas Kupsas

RealGM interviewed Sabonis-alum Mindaugas Kupsas, the only potential NBA draftee from Lithuania this year, to talk about his development, the upcoming NBA draft, future plans and much more.

The UNLV Enigma

Exploring the loss of Katin Reinhardt and why a team with 8 former Top 100 recruits on the roster is not in most Top 25 rankings for next season.

Heat Roll Offensively, Take 2-1 Lead Over Pacers

Beaten down from trying to defend LeBron James, Paul George had just 13 points on 10 shots as the Heat clicked offensively on Sunday night.

Pacers Show Poise, Earn Split In Miami

After letting Game 1 slip away, Roy Hibbert dominated and the Pacers earned a much-needed split in Miami as the Eastern Conference Finals shift to Indiana.

On Dwight Howard, Defense, History

Pundits like Bill Simmons can look at a year Dwight Howard was hurt and a year where he played in a system that minimized his strengths and magnified his weaknesses to write him off using pithy garbage like personality, but analyzing production and talent over conjecture will always win out.

The Logistics Of Dwight Ending Up With Golden State

Getting Dwight Howard sits within the realm of possibility for the Warriors, but it would come at a steep, steep cost unless the Lakers are more generous than expected. Wasting their amnesty on Charlie Bell and using 2013 cap space to acquire a pick last season is again continuing to hurt them.

Pacers Give Away Game 1, LeBron Saves Heat

The Pacers gave the Heat all they could handle, but questionable decisions cost them in overtime as Miami won a buzzer-beater by LeBron James.

Cavaliers Moving Past Being Defined By LeBron's Departure

The luck of the lottery, combined with the Cavaliers' young talent has made the ending with James easier to move on from. These days, the disappointment of that situation is a memory more than a motivating factor for Cleveland.

2013 NBA Amnesty Primer

One fun component of the Amnesty rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA.

NBA's Return To Seattle Still Looks Good

Sonics' fans should still have hope, as many significant steps were laid for the return of the NBA to Seattle, which will occur sooner rather than later. Why the optimistic view? Here’s why,

The Lottery Lowdown

We have seen a whole lot of changes since the pre-Tournament issue of the Lottery Lowdown. March Madness gave us a few players to watch both this year and for 2014 while the Nike Hoop Summit and Combine helped clarify the picture in terms of athletic ability and positional versatility.

Stephenson Picks Perfect Time For Breakout Game, Pacers Advance Conference Finals

The Pacers were led by a different player in each of their four wins over the Knicks and in Game 6 it was Lance Stephenson’s turn. The balance of their first five is what gives the Pacers their bets chance against the Heat.

George Hill And The NBA's Precedents On Concussions

Players that failed a concussion test and returned this season – John Jenkins, Nikola Vucevic, Darrell Arthur, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Chris Kaman, Pau Gasol, Marvin Williams, Jeff Pendergraph and Anthony Davis – missed an average of 11 days.

Chris Copeland Adds New Dimension To Knicks’ Offense

Chris Copeland’s presence helped the Knicks cut the rebounding deficit (43-40) by pulling Hibbert and West away from the basket on pick-and-roll plays and by roaming along the three-point line along the wings in Game 5.

Pacers Miss Chance To Steal Game 5, Forced To Head Home For Another Shot To End Series

In a game that the Knicks should have run away with, the Pacers narrowly missed an opportunity to steal one on the road and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process.

Thunder Head Into Offseason Early, Weakened From Season Ago

Had the Thunder been patient and truly believed in the strength of their program, they would have discovered that James Harden is better than good. Meanwhile, the Thunder are left with the burden of finding the right guys to get the team back to contender status.

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