Four days after Charlotte's Baron Davis dominated Anthony Carter for a third and final time in April's playoffs, Heat coach Pat Riley shocked a room full of reporters when he said he would be comfortable with Carter as a starter this season.

Riley backed up his words in July, signing Carter to a three-year, $12 million contract and handing him the starting position, virtually unopposed, until Rod Strickland's signing Oct. 22.

More than a quarter into the season, Carter, 26, hasn't proved he's up to the challenge.

And the Heat's outlook at point guard is more worrisome than anytime in franchise history.

In a season filled with questionable personnel moves, the decision to open the season with Carter as a starter ranks high on the list.

Now, Carter is out at least the next four games with a lower abdominable strain and is considering surgery that would sideline him at least two weeks.

Even before the injury, Carter was coming off the bench behind Strickland, and the Heat's point-guard play remained dubious, which led Miami to re-sign CBA prospect Mike James last week. James has offensive skills, but isn't expected to develop into a long-term starter.

Perhaps a team with more offensive weapons could make do with Carter playing 20 to 30 minutes a night. But the Heat's lack of punch magnifies his deficiencies.

``He's an NBA player, a good backup, but not a starter on a good team,'' ESPN's Jack Ramsay said. ``I've always thought he's better coming off the bench. Anthony's an energy guy. He can push the ball and give you a change of pace. Had Strickland gotten to the Heat in good shape, it would have been better for A.C. rather than him feel the pressure of starting.''

Since being replaced by Strickland in the starting lineup Dec. 11, Carter has averaged 6.0 points, 3.2 assists, 37.5 percent shooting and 22.4 minutes in five games. That is compared with 6.3 points, 7.1 assists, 37.0 percent shooting and 31.8 minutes in 18 games as a starter.

``A.C. wasn't benched,'' Riley said. ``It was just time to change the chemistry.''

Carter has improved as a playmaker -- his 3.1 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 19th in the league -- and he's 15th in the NBA in assists at 6.2 per game.

But his shooting percentage has dipped to a career-low 37.1 after shooting 39.5 and 40.6 his first two seasons.

Teams routinely leave him open, and Carter (who's averaging 6.2 points) can't hit the shot consistently, even after lofting more than 500 jumpers a day all summer. The crowds at AmericanAirlines Arena moan every time he misses.

``I'm not pleased with how I've done because we're not winning,'' Carter said, declining to elaborate on his performance.

More surprisingly, his free-throw shooting has plummeted to 51.9 percent (14 for 27). Carter shot 75 percent from the line as a rookie and 63.1 percent last season.

Oddly, Carter is flippant about that weakness, saying it's not an issue: ``We don't shoot free throws here. We don't get to the foul line.''

Two weeks ago, Riley said Carter is ``blowing a heck of an opportunity.'' But the coach softened his comments last week, saying his teammates are partly accountable for his struggles.

``A.C. has been scrutinized unfairly,'' Riley said. ``He has developed as I had hoped, as a playmaker learning how to run the offense better. Players who receive passes from him have to finish.

``Anthony's productivity level is where I thought it would be -- eight points a game, seven assists a game, 45 to 48 percent on open shots. He can run our offense a little bit smoother, but he's beginning to do that. If he makes a bad pass out of bounds and hits somebody in the face with a ball, that's just once in a while. He's doing a good job.''

Could the capped-out Heat have found a better point guard last summer? That's debatable.

Forget Tim Hardaway -- the Heat never seriously considered bringing him back because of his age, history of injuries and salary demands.

But Miami would have been able to afford Dana Barros, who has averaged 8.7 points for Detroit after signing a one-year, $1.5 million contract. Although he's undersized at 5-11, Barros would have provided a more polished scorer and probably would have taken a one-year deal.

Denver gave Avery Johnson its entire $4.5 million exception over a three-year contract, but he would not have been a long-term solution.

Other affordable potential free-agent options over the summer included Milt Palacio, Shammond Williams, Jacque Vaughn and Emanuel Davis, but none would have been a big difference-maker.

Another option would have been trading for Greg Anthony, whom Chicago acquired from Portland for a second-round draft pick.

The Heat considered Robert Pack, who remains unsigned, but decided to sign Strickland instead. Miami never has had much interest in Matt Maloney, who's also unsigned.

Moochie Norris, given a six-year, $22.7 million deal from Houston, would have been too expensive. So was Alvin Williams, who drew heavy Heat interest before re-signing with Toronto. And the Heat didn't have enough to trade for Stephon Marbury or Gary Payton.

Because the Heat traded last year's No. 1 pick (20th overall) to Cleveland in the Brian Grant deal, it could not draft rookie surprises Jamaal Tinsley (Indiana) or Tony Parker (San Antonio). And the Heat passed on picking up ex-St. John's point guard Omar Cook, who was released by Denver but signed by Dallas.

Strickland has been erratic, and doesn't seem likely to return next season. James is a fringe prospect, probably backup material at best.

So where does the Heat find a point guard for the future? Miami is exploring trades (Indiana's Travis Best is a top option), but that's only a stopgap. The only starting point guards among next summer's free agents are Anthony, Vaughn, Barros and the Clippers' Jeff McInnis.

The capped-out Heat could not afford McInnis, and has never expressed much interest in the other three.

The Heat's best hope remains finding a point guard in the draft from a class that could include Duke junior Jason Williams, Boston College junior Troy Bell, Illinois junior Frank Williams, Arizona junior Jason Gardner, Florida junior Brett Nelson, Duke sophomore Chris Duhon, as well as seniors Maurice Baker (Oklahoma State) and Dan Dickau (Gonzaga).

Tito Maddox, who was dismissed from Fresno State for accepting benefits from an agent and is playing for the ABA's Phoenix team, is a projected first-rounder who will be eligible for next June's draft.

The Heat will have more than $20 million in cap space in the summer of 2003, when Payton and perhaps Jason Kidd, Sam Cassell and Mike Bibby will be among those available.

Riley hoped Carter's athleticism, quickness and work ethic would help him join the list of undrafted players who developed into solid starting point guards, such as Avery Johnson and Orlando's Darrell Armstrong. There are numerous second-round success stories, too, including Denver's Nick Van Exel and Philadelphia's Eric Snow.

``It took [Snow and Johnson] three or four years to develop, and A.C. is right along the same lines,'' Riley said.

But, counters Ramsay, ``It didn't take Tinsley or Parker any time to step in.''

Kidd sees upside in Carter.

``It's tough for a young point guard to come in and start,'' Kidd said. ``Anthony Carter plays extremely hard. That's the type of guy Pat loves to have. It's only his third year. He's still young. It's not time to give up on him, and I don't think Pat will.''