At what point did the Bucks' season turn from highly promising to potentially disastrous?

A. During Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals last June, when Ray Allen's knee was taken out by Eric Snow.

B. In late October, when the Bucks jettisoned Scott Williams to sign Anthony Mason.

C. During the five-game losing streak that followed the 9-1 start, when George Karl resumed ripping his stars for not practicing.

D. In February, when Sam Cassell sprained his big toe.

E. During the off-season, when nothing was done to address an aimless direction caused by a lack of floor leadership.

F. At any point because the Bucks have neither the capacity nor the will to make a critical defensive stop.

More likely, a combination of all of the above for the Bucks, whose smooth chemistry and offensive flow from last season is gone. Although it is not too late to say the same for the season, it doesn't look promising with 15 regular-season games to play.

Face it. The minimum expectation was to repeat as Central Division champions. Detroit, with less talent but far more enthusiasm and effort, appears ready to take it away. Remember when the Bucks actually seemed excited about playing the game? Compared with the joys exhibited by the Pistons, New Jersey, Boston, Orlando and even Charlotte, the Bucks appear absolutely glum at times.

They were right about the conclusions they drew during the brief team meeting after the loss Tuesday at Orlando. They're not having fun anymore, and it shows. The fine chemistry from last year, due in part to good locker-room guys like Williams and Lindsey Hunter, has disappeared with them.

Karl can rail against the burdens of expectation, but nothing less than an appearance in the NBA Finals this season could be considered a success. Certainly, it is still attainable, but not with the present course.

For one thing, the Bucks, with virtually the same players, do not even remotely resemble the team that got within a game of the Finals last season. When was the last time they actually scored in transition? Or devastated an opponent with overwhelming offensive firepower?

Defense is missing
But here's the real difference: By the second half of last season, the Bucks had become good enough on defense to solve an opponent in the fourth quarters of tight games. Stops were made. Games were won.

It doesn't happen anymore. Why?

Injuries play a part. Allen has never recovered from the knee injury he suffered against Philadelphia nine months ago. He can't move as he used to, and opponents are going right at him.

Cassell limps every night. So do Glenn Robinson and Tim Thomas. Injuries have undeniably altered the Bucks' makeup and character, but a lot of teams play hurt. The Magic didn't have Grant Hill or Mike Miller when it drilled the Bucks five days ago.

Remember last year how the Bucks won the epic Charlotte playoff series? Defense, rebounding and character. Williams and Ervin Johnson had the games of their lives. Williams was cut loose to make room for Mason. Johnson isn't having the year he had last season.

Chemistry changes
So how much do you pin on the Mason addition? Clearly, missing training camp was not good for his big 35-year-old body. He sometimes clogs up the once-freewheeling offense with his slow, deliberate moves. He's not the locker-room guy that Williams was, which goes to the team's altered chemistry.

The team doesn't seem as motivated, which goes to Karl. Have the players finally tuned him out?

There's little evidence, mainly because none of the stars has decided to take a seat for the stretch run. When players give up on a coach, they invent injuries. Remember what happened four years ago when some of them bailed out on Chris Ford in the final month of the regular season? Now, of course, there's more at stake.

Noticeably humbler - maybe it's the Esquire article, maybe it's the losing - Karl has backed off and become a public supporter of his players. He now says the Bucks are still capable of great things this year. It's not too late.

Or is it?