Bryce Drew. Roshown McLeod. Ron Artest. Dion Glover. Hedo Turkoglu. Speedy Claxton. Kirk Haston. Brendan Haywood. Jiri Welsh. Kareem Rush. Those are the players selected at the No. 16 and No. 20 spots in the last five NBA drafts. Some play important roles for their teams. One no longer plays in the league. One has gained notoriety for his temper and praise for his defense. One recently earned an NBA ring.

Danny Ainge, the Celtics director of basketball operations, may have the odds figured just right. After looking at the history of players drafted at No. 16 and No. 20, he said, ''about one out of every three players becomes a successful NBA player.''

Some of the Celtics' success with their two first-round selections depends upon luck, some on the thoroughness of their scouting, and some on instinct. Once teams get past the top three picks, there is a lot of upside and uncertainty in this year's draft.

When asked who the Celtics were choosing in tonight's draft, Ainge said, ''That's a good one. I don't know. I guess it depends who's there. I'm going to take the best player. There's always a best player available. I don't see a lot of separation after the first few picks. It just depends on what your needs are and what your goals are.

''[You have to figure out] whether you're going to draft a European player you can keep overseas, a high school player you want to develop, a college player that can come in and contribute maybe in a lesser role right away. Those are all questions that I think all teams have to decide in that second tier of players.''