RealGM Analysis
Now that the post-lottery draft order is set, our latest mock draft breaks down the first round and takes team needs into consideration. We feel the top three players are set, but it's a free for all thereafter.
1. Memphis: Greg Oden, Center, Ohio State
Because of the fleeting thought of selecting Kevin Durant, I doubt any lottery representatives will be bringing a custom Oden jersey like Dave Debusschere did for Patrick Ewing in 1985.
A frontline of Oden, Pau Gasol and Rudy Gay would be a frightening prospect for the already stacked Western Conference.
2. Boston: Kevin Durant, Small Forward, Texas
The Celtics think so much of Al Jefferson and appear to be so high on Durant that if anyone were to give serious thought to passing on Oden, it would likely be them. Boston was a significantly better team than their record indicated, so a player that absolutely looks like a perennial All-Star would tip the scales of fortune for a once dominant franchise.
3. Milwaukee: Brandan Wright, Power Forward, North Carolina
A power forward is certainly not the Bucks? most pressing need, but Brandan Wright is clearly the third best prospect and should be selected here. Wright overlaps with Charlie Villanueva in ways that are similar to how Villanueva overlapped with Chris Bosh when Toronto selected him with the 7th pick in 2005.
The right player for the Bucks is Mike Conley, Jr., but drafting him here would be a fairly big limb to walk out on.
4. Phoenix (from Atlanta): Mike Conley Jr., Point Guard, Ohio State
It is very rare for a team that contends for a championship on an annual basis to have such a high pick, but like Detroit in 2003, it happens here if Atlanta doesn?t land in the top-three.
There are a number of options for the Suns in the fourth slot, the point in the draft where I believe roughly four or five players have equal value.
Conley is very young but his makeup is impeccable and he has the right skills to become Steve Nash?s replacement in Phoenix?s distinctive style that requires a playmaking point guard. Marcus Banks is not the player they thought he was and Leanrdo Barbosa plays the point in a style that wouldn?t be as effective for the Suns at 35+ minutes per game.
5. Seattle: Corey Brewer, Small Forward, Florida
There are a number of very good small forwards in this draft and with Rashard Lewis a possible departure, they will select one here. You can make an argument for Green or even Young instead of Brewer, but I have the most confidence in the Florida wing. He has the perfect blend of swagger and team play, along with top notch athleticism and a very good jumper. Brewer will make an excellent ballplayer in the NBA.
6. Portland: Al Horford, Power Forward, Florida
Horford fills the new style of Blazers? basketball, which are high character, sound fundamental players who have proven themselves on the college level. Brandon Roy did so at Washington and Horford surely has during his two championships at Florida. Zach Randolph is unlikely to be in Portland beyond Horford's second season.
7. Minnesota: Jeff Green, Small Forward, Georgetown
The Wolves need help down low, but both Yi Jianlian and Roy Hibbert are big projects, so if they really want to win now, Green is ready to contribute and gives them a big wing to run with Randy Foye.
8. Charlotte: Yi Jianlian, Power Forward, China
Jianlian?s skill set would mesh perfectly with Emeka Okafor as he possesses a keen ability to hit the mid-range jumper a la Troy Murphy, but has athleticism closer to Dirk Nowitzki.
9. Chicago (swap with New York): Roy Hibbert, Center, Georgetown
The Bulls very well may end up going to the Finals this season, but their weakness is glaring and Hibbert will be a project but could end up being the long-term answer they need in the low post. Hibbert will spend much of 2007-2008 in the D-League but could evolve with Deng and Thomas to be the third cog in an excellent young frontcourt.
10. Sacramento: Joakim Noah, Power Forward, Florida
Noah would have been a perfect player for the Kings during their turn of the millennium glory days and their need for a 6-11 big who can dribble, pass, shoot and block shots is as big as ever. Noah?s stock diminished significantly since his perceived upside was devalued during his junior season, but he still will be a quality player in the NBA. He is no longer the top-five pick he would have been last season, but being the 10th overall pick is nothing to scoff at and is appropriate.
11. Atlanta (from Indiana): Spencer Hawes, Center, Washington
Billy Knight tends to select the underwhelming option when he?s in the lottery, whether it was Josh Childress in 2004 or Shelden Williams in 2006, though he has made interesting picks in Boris Diaw and Josh Smith during the later stages of the first round. Atlanta needs a point guard and a center and unless they want to trade up for Mike Conley, they will be stuck here with Hawes. Hawes is another middle of the road pick who should become a nice pro but will not significantly help the Hawks improve. If Atlanta gets lucky and gets to keep their lottery pick with the third overall selection, would they take Wright or Conley?
12. Philadelphia: Al Thornton, Small Forward, Florida State
Thornton will join Andre Igudola and Rodney Carney as tremendous athletes, but ordinary basketball players. With Allen Iverson departed, the Sixers are desperate for a franchise scorer because there isn?t one on their roster and if they stay in this playoff/lottery limbo, they won?t find it for many more years.
13. New Orleans: Thaddeus Young, Small Forward, Georgia Tech
Nearly as much as Steve Nash does, Chris Paul has the ability to make his teammates significantly better and if Young ends up with the Hornets, he will become the player GMs will regret passing on. Young?s upside is clearly of a top-five prospect if he can work out the kinks of his inconsistency.
14. L.A. Clippers: Acie Law IV, Point Guard, Texas A&M
There are players with far more upside than Law that the Clippers will be leaving on the board, but because of an aging Sam Cassell and an injured Shaun Livingston, the need for a point guard is dire. Law?s frame and game is actually quite reminiscent of Cassell and could develop into that same kind of point guard, who performs spectacularly under pressure. There is no doubt that Law will one day become a key competent of a contending club.
15. Detroit (from Orlando): Julian Wright, Small Forward, Kansas
If Wright is able to demonstrate an ability to shoot the ball better than he ever did at Kansas during his workouts, then he?ll shoot back up the board, but for now he should be a mid-first round pick. This is the part of the draft where Danny Granger was drafted in 2005 and is an appropriate place for Wright this year. The Pistons could use his athleticism and Wright fits in perfectly with his passing and defensive abilities. It would be a blessing for Wright to end up in Detroit.
16. Washington: Rudy Fernandez, Shooting Guard, Joventut
It would be no surprise to see Fernandez end up in the lottery as more and more teams are wowed by a combination of athleticism and perimeter shooting that has become such a rare commodity at the shooting guard position of late. The non-Gilbert guard position has become a bit of a revolving door in Washington over the past few years, but Fernandez would become a starter by season two and give Arenas a reason to stick around.
17. New Jersey: Josh McRoberts, Power Forward, Duke
Mikki Moore has been a godsend and even if the Nets do manage to re-sign him, McRoberts would give them an element that neither Moore, the returning Nenad Kristic and Jason Collins do not.
18. Golden State: Nicolas Batum, Small Forward, Le Mans
Since I completed this Mock Draft, Aran Smith of NBADraft.net reported that Nicolas Batum has decided to stay at Le Mans for another season. He would have been a steal for the Warriors here with the 18th pick and will make the 2008 draft even deeper than it already is shaping up to be.
19. L.A. Lakers: Morris Almond, Shooting Guard, Rice
The problem with many of the wings the Lakers have brought in to play beside Kobe has been dreadful perimeter shooting; this changes with Almond. The Lakers desperately need additional scoring and for a second half of the draft prospect, Almond can actually provide a fair amount of it. If he improves his handle, he could become the big other guard a la Ron Harper.
20. Miami: Aaron Gray, Center, Pitt
Miami could use help at the point guard position, but Gray gives the club more value than what is left in a thin year in the floor general category. Shaq and Mourning are ageing quickly and is all Dwyane Wade would need at center in future seasons if they could get a whole lot better at small forward or the point.
21. Philadelphia (from Denver): Derrick Byars, Small Forward, Vanderbilt
Byars opened and closed his 2006-2007 season against Georgetown and would make another versatile piece for the Sixers. With three first round picks this season, there is a decent chance that one of the picks gets dealt and this 21st selection would be the most likely option.
22. Charlotte: Rodney Stuckey, Point Guard, Eastern Washington
Because of injuries to Brevin Knight, the Bobcats were thin at the point guard position and needed Derek Anderson and Jeff McInnis to spell Raymond Felton. Stuckey is a combo guard, which will allow him to share the floor with Felton in addition to being his backup.
23. New York (swap with Chicago): Marco Belinelli, Shooting Guard, Climamio Bologna
With Batum remaining in France, Belinelli?s stock automatically elevates a notch. While the Knicks should trade up to land Fernandez, Belinelli is a nice alternative and helps fill their most dire need.
24. Phoenix (from Cleveland via Boston): Tiago Splitter, Power Forward, Tau Vitoria
Splitter would be a very nice addition to Phoenix, giving them additional height and a shot blocker on defense, while possessing all the necessary offensive skills and athletic agility to keep up with, if not improve their fun and gun system. If the Suns were to walk away from the draft with Conley and Splitter, they will officially have what we?ve been anticipating for several years now; a team that will contend for titles for another ten seasons.
25. Utah: Alando Tucker, Shooting Guard, Wisconsin
If Tucker can develop consistency with his perimeter shot, then you can pencil him in as a starter on Utah for many years to come. He is an ideal player for a coach like Jerry Sloan and fills their need for a scoring wing.
26. Houston: Kyle Visser, Center, Wake Forest
The Rockets lack of depth would lead me to simply take the best player available, but with Mutumbo ageing quickly and Yao Ming proving to have a fragile streak, the need for a true center is too pressing to pass on. While Gray appears to have reached a plateau in his development as a center, Visser is still improving. His numbers jumped from 5 and 4 his Junior season to a very impressive 17 and 7 as a senior.
27. Detroit: Jarvis Crittenton, Point Guard, Georgia Tech
I don?t believe Chauncey Billups will be wearing any uniform but a Pistons one, but having some depth at the point guard position is critical and Crittenton would make an excellent understudy.
28. San Antonio: Arron Affalo, Shooting Guard, UCLA
The Spurs? wings aren?t getting any younger (Ginobili, Finley, Bowen, Barry) and Affalo has the game and character that RC Buford and Gregg Popovich look for in a player. He has flawless fundamentals, good range on his perimeter shot and is physically ready to be a rotation player from the onset of his career.
29. Phoenix: Nick Young, Shooting Guard, USC
Young didn?t improve much from his sophomore season to his junior season, but the standard he set as a sophomore was still impressive. His skill set is tailor made for a team that likes to run as he is very comfortable with the ball in his hands.
30. Philadelphia (from Dallas via Denver and Golden State): Jared Dudley, Small Forward, Boston College
Dudley is a player that some GMs wouldn?t consider until the middle of the second, but he is the kind of player Billy King tends to like and would be of immediate use to their team. Since a guaranteed contract comes with this pick and most of the reasonable bet upside flyers have been selected, the long shot flyers remain and I?d rather take my chances on a Dudley for a couple of years.
