Last season, Kobe Bryant took home his first-ever MVP award, beating Chris Paul and Kevin Garnett pretty decisively. Bryant received 82 of 126 first place votes, in what many considered to be a "lifetime achievement" award from voters around the NBA.

Personally, I felt as though Paul deserved the award, but I didn't have a strong statistical backing for my claim at the time. I also wasn't alone in the belief that CP3 was a legitimate MVP, as he was the clear-cut choice for second place.

This year's race, in my opinion, is going to be a lot closer than any one in recent seasons. Only four players received first-place votes in the 2008 balloting (Bryant, Paul, Garnett and LeBron James), but as many as six guys could get consideration for top billing in May.

In the conversation once again are Bryant, Paul and James. The Celtics are the defending-champions and have the third-best record in the league this season, but, for a variety of reasons, they don't have a player in the race. Garnett might have been a candidate once again, but his recent knee injury ended his chances.

In addition to the trio of returning candidates, you have to add Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan to the short list of possible winners.

Wade has played like a man on fire this season, returning from an injury-plagued campaign that ended in 15 wins, to interject himself into the race. Among the six players I've mentioned, Wade's Heat have the "worst" record, but no one expected them to reverse their fortunes as quickly as they have. Wade is the main reason why they are playoff-bound.

Howard has been a steady force for the Magic this season. Orlando lost All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson for the season with a shoulder injury, but Howard's interior dominance has allowed the team to remain among the league's best. He tops the league in both rebounds and blocks, and is the leader of dying breed in the NBA -- dominant, true centers.

Duncan doesn't always receive the consideration he deserves, but he's the most stable player we've seen in the NBA over the last decade or so. He's not at the top of the league in any statistical category -- he's the only candidate I'll analyze that doesn't dominate in at least one area -- but he probably won't ever finish outside of the top-ten in any MVP race during his career.

In order to rank the top candidates for the 2009 NBA MVP award, I ranked my six superstars in ten different statistical categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FIC40, winning percentage, win shares, fourth quarter scoring, and net points per 100 possessions on/off the court*.

All stats are through 3/16/09 games

Wade, for example, leads the league in points per game (29.9). Therefore, I assigned him 1 point, while I gave James 2 points for his standing as the second-leading scorer (28.5). Duncan is just 24th in scoring, at 20 points per game, so he received 24 points.

I repeated this process for each of my ten statistical categories. One of the six players I analyzed ranked at the top of each stat, which you might expect when looking at the six "best" players in the league. The "winner" and my choice for MVP is the player that survives my system with the lowest point total.

The results were both expected, and surprising.

6. Tim Duncan, San Antonio ? 432 points

He ranks in the top-ten in rebounds, blocks, FIC40, and winning percentage, but loses a significant amount of ground with ranks lower than 130th in both steals and net points per 100 possession on/off the court.

Duncan supporters will contend that my system favors more versatile players, who might not necessarily be more valuable. Admittedly, the top-three candidates are all "combo" guys.

5. Dwight Howard, Orlando ? 280 points

As mentioned above, Howard leads the league in both rebounds and blocks. He's also in the top-ten in FIC40, winning percentage and win shares. He ranks 64th in steals -- not bad for a center that's still developing -- and 124th in assists this season.

If he improves his passing skills and enjoys even a slight increase in his assists numbers, he'll probably jump up a few spots on such a list next season. If you asked me to rank these six players purely based on opinion, Howard would probably be third or fourth.

4. Chris Paul, New Orleans ? 236 points

CP3 is first in the NBA in assists and steals, and ranks second in FIC40, win shares and "on/off" differential. He is a tremendous defensive player, known for persistently getting in the face of the opposition (just look at his steal numbers), but his height (shortest on the list) hurts his ability to reject shots.

You can't knock a 6'0" point guard for ranking in the bottom half of the league in blocks, but it does keep him from surpassing the third player in my MVP voting.

3. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles ? 204 points

We are now entering sacred air. Bryant is the first player among the four we've discussed that will almost certainly finish in the top-three on the final MVP balloting. The Lakers are tied with the Cavaliers for the best record in the NBA, and Kobe leads the league in fourth quarter scoring.

Personally, I highly doubt Bryant will win the MVP for the second straight year. He hasn't been as well-rounded as Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, but he is probably the best basketball player on the planet. Mamba will get the last laugh though, with Los Angeles having the best shot to upend Boston as NBA champions.

2. Dwyane Wade, Miami ? 117 points

Wade's recent assault on both the Miami record books and opposing defenses has propelled him to the top of the MVP conversation. He is the NBA's top scorer, and ranks in the top-ten in assists, steals, FIC40, win shares, fourth quarter scoring and "on/off" differential.

He is also the most important player on the list. If you take Wade out of the lineup, the Heat are very easily a lottery team. He's also pretty self-deprecating, which scores him points in my book. You could argue that Orlando might crumble without Howard, but they still have Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Miami would have to rely on Jermaine O'Neal and Michael Beasley.

1. LeBron James, Cleveland ? 77 points

There are more players in the conversation this season, but LeBron is the clear-cut winner. He ranks in the top-thirty in each of the ten categories I've highlighted, including a standing of at least tenth in eight of those statistics.

He perfectly summed up the MVP race in early February. Just two days after Kobe Bryant exploded for 61 points against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, LBJ tallied 52 points, 11 assists and 9 rebounds in the same building. It's time for the King to receive his crown.


*Category Legend

FIC40: Chris Reina's FIC per 40 minutes

Winning percentage: Team's win-loss %

Win shares: Estimate of wins contributed

Fourth quarter scoring: Points per game in fourth quarter

Net points per 100 possessions on/off the court: Value to team when on and off court


Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: [email protected]