It seems appropriate to start out on the Warriors with a roster analysis with some salary capness tossed in. I hope to get more into the salary dynamics of the Warriors in a piece in the very near future, but the situation with Jamal Crawford looms so large over any discussion on the topic (with no reliable indication I?ve seen thus far of which way he is going on his ETO) that it would be best to just wait until that point. Regardless, going through the roster properly sets the stage for the immensely significant off-season to come.

About a year ago, I read a post on the boards of this fair site (the Milwaukee Bucks board, to be specific) that a player?s position should be defined as the ones he can defend. It seemed intuitively reasonable at the time, and has since grown into the primary line of demarcation between players. The fact of the matter is that drawing the lines on offensive capabilities is awkward since there are so many guys that can blur the lines between positions (think Memo Okur as a Center, any point-forward, or the undersized SG?s like Steve Francis). My interpretation of that philosophy is that a player?s positions are the ones where he can competently defend the average player at the position at his level of play (starter, rotation player, bench player), which is how I draw position lines below. This defensive definition must be coupled with the pivotal distinction between off-guards and primary ballhandlers for guards, considering the massive importance of having a player who can run the offense at any given point.


With that said, let?s get into the current Golden State squad, with some Z-charts courtesy of my friends at FreeDarko for the Warriors? starters.

Starter quality

Andris Biedrins, C.

Biedrins is an incredibly important part of any future Warriors? success, partially because of his talent and age and also because the only way the Dubs can win giving shaky perimeter defenders heavy minutes is by having a consistently strong presence at the center spot. I wish that he could stay on the floor a little more (fouls, injuries), but I love what he does with the time he is out there.

There is also something to be said for the value of having a guy like Andris at the center spot, since the number of true C?s in the league that are actually good, reliable starters is small and dwindling over the next few seasons- hell, just look and this year?s draft class. One way of assessing Biedrins? value is by borrowing the concept of VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) from baseball statistics. Replacing Andris would inevitably lead to either a more expensive player, a worse fit for Nellie?s system, or both.

As such, Andris? value is enhanced by his fit in the system and the shallowness of the position in general, while the Warriors swingman army is on the other side of that equation for the most part. Having a combination of big men in Biedrins and Turiaf that can reliably man the C minutes if both are healthy is really what can keep the Warriors afloat as the rest of the roster is in flux, which it should be for the foreseeable future.

Monta Ellis, Off-Guard (defending PG/SG).

Mr. Moped is not a primary ballhandler, but he can surely defend a solid group of PG?s. My favorite thing about Monta is how brutally hard he is to defend when he is on his game, with his combination of speed, finishing ability, and the nasty pull up J when the defense goes on its heels.

What worries me a little bit about him in the long term is that he is an incredibly tough guy to complement well. Obviously, that guard has to be someone who can run the offense, which is why Baron and Monta worked together well, and it would be great to have a guy who can defend either the PG or SG so Monta can slide between the two depending on the matchups. This idea provides the reason why I continue to be so high on Ricky Rubio as a fit, as he is one of the only lead guards in the NBA that can fit both elements that is even remotely getable (the others: Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade). Rubio is obviously less of a player than either Roy or Wade, but his skill set provides a unique flexibility that the Warriors need desperately next to Monta should he be a part of their future.

Additionally, this difficulty makes him a far more logical trade asset than Biedrins, especially when bringing positional scarcity into the fold.

Anthony Randolph, PF.

I like to call Randolph the ?Carte Blanche? because with his athleticism and skills, there?s no telling what he could be yet. The most impressive part about his rookie season was that his defensive instincts are pretty good for a guy his age, which helps quite a bit since those are difficult to ingrain in youngsters (especially in Nellie?s run and gun system). The most important part of Randolph?s development over the next few years is to specifically install a reliable and useful mentality on offense- he has the nasty habit of trying to do too much too soon, which he will need to break soon.

In my eyes, Randolph should become the Tyrus Thomas-esque fastbreak finisher to go along with Monta who can slide out to the mid-range during half-court sets (to open up the paint for Beans and penetrators). Of course, having an effective primary ballhandler would go a long way towards facilitating this tweak to his game. It would be possible for him to play some SF in the long term, but guarding high level perimeter players is not his forte at the moment- it makes more sense to grow his game offensively and keep him as an energy PF who kills shots off the weak side until the roster settles down and the team gets a more full sense of where Anthony?s long-term strengths and weaknesses are on the defensive end.

Stephen Jackson, SF.

This is neither the time nor the place to get into questions about why he got his extension so soon after the Maggette signing (after all, I need to have things to write about later?) so that will be saved for another time. The most surprising element of last season was how Baron being off the team changed Jackson on and off the court. Looking back, Stephen has thrived in terms of team success on teams where there is a dominant personality other than himself (Spurs with Duncan/Popovich, Warriors with Baron, Pacers with Ron Ron) and the loss of Boom Dizzle changed more than just the personality dynamic; it forced Jackson to become more of an initiator on offense. Jackson showed earlier in his time with the Warriors how dangerous he can be in the right circumstance, and last season provided the foil for it and also gave me the fear that Jackson is firmly on the downslope of his career.

Of course, Stephen can be a legit NBA starter at SF for several more season, but it at least raises the question of what his role is in the long term. The best role for him offensively is probably as a 3rd option, though I think of him as a 2.5 option, meaning that if there is another guy of similar offensive prowess, they can have the 2nd and 3rd option niches covered. That can work on a team like the 'We Believe' squad because they had so many other scoring options in J-Rich, Baron, Monta, and Al Harrington (or like the current Orlando Magic), but it becomes somewhat problematic if you pencil in Biedrins and Randolph at the 4 and 5 slots.

With that said, SJax will continue to have value for the team, which is good because it proves difficult to find a team in the current NBA financial climate that would want to take on his contract.

High Rotation Players (6th and 7th men):

Ronny Turiaf, C/PF. My favorite Warrior has become the definition of what an energy player should be. He totally changes the feel of the team when he is on the floor and powers up both the team and the fans when he is on the sidelines. It is truly amazing to see a natural shot-blocking talent like Turiaf in action in person. He may not be at the level of similar defensive bigs who can extend their minutes to 30-35 per night, but Turiaf?s rebounding tenacity makes him a player that makes any team better.

With that in mind, he needs to work on making better decisions on the offensive end- he sometimes forces a shot or a pass that can help get the other team going. The other big benefit in terms of having Turiaf on the Warriors is that he provides insurance for Biedrins- if need be, Turiaf and Brandon Wright can hold down the C fort for a few games, though as we saw last year, it does not work too well for a prolonged period of time. Turiaf changing games in about 20-24 MPG seems like his optimal role.

Corey Maggette, SF

Again, I will not discuss the contract or anything like that at length. Instead, the focus will be on Corey?s role with the team. Unquestionably, Maggette?s biggest strength is his ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line. As such, he should be starting off every quarter, much in the same way Phoenix should be using Shaq. Having the other team in foul trouble from the start of each quarter bring a few different benefits, from more free throws overall to individuals playing more tentatively- take a look at points of the Cavs/Magic series and you see the impact of foul trouble incredibly well. What makes this part of Corey?s game so effective for the Warriors is that the rest of the team is filled with guys who can take advantage of a team that is on their heels in any way, especially Monta and Randolph. As such, using Maggette primarily as a starter who plays 6th man minutes overall creates the most effective use of his greatest talent and makes the Warriors a team that can make any squad uncomfortable, especially when playing at home.

Jamal Crawford, Off-Guard (defends PG)

Jamal is a player who makes categorization incredibly difficult. He is definitely an off-guard, but it is totally unclear which guard position he can and/or should defend on that side of the ball. His size provides a decent advantage over some PG?s, but he does not possess the speed to handle the higher level guys (unlike Monta). Against SG?s, he is typically undersized and does not have the instincts to do a particularly good job on them. In the end, he?s pretty much a gunner who ideally should come off the bench in a way akin to Jannero Pargo with the Hornets in 2007-2008. I have never seen a player sway his team?s fortunes within a game like I did in person at Warriors games this year- I was there when he shot 2-for-10 against the Spurs and when he dropped 26 while getting somewhat close to a 5x5 against Memphis. We?ll have to see if he decides to opt out- my guess is that he will not because even though Nellie worked hard to antagonize him, the market is not there to produce a long enough contract for Crawford to justify taking less money per year than he would get under his current deal. Either way, Jamal is an asset in the right circumstance though his deficiencies are awfully hard to work around without superior talent and coaching.

Brandon Wright, PF

I love what Brandon Wright can become on the Warriors. He is still incredibly young (turns 22 this October) and has both great physical tools and a good natural sense of the game. The other big asset he brings to the table is some nice touch near the basket, which is especially valuable in the half-court set. It would help the team out if he could pick up some assertiveness from Randolph (or Turiaf) by osmosis- a sense of urgency on the court would make him a much more dynamic player, particularly on the defensive end. The team could also benefit from a better out of the paint game offensively from Brandon, since Biedrins? game is pretty much that of an interior big rather than a mid-range big, though he can pick and roll pretty well. Now the real challenge is getting Nellie to put him on the floor...

Lower Rotation Players (still worthy of minutes, just less of them)

Marco Belinelli, SG

Another guy who needs to grow into an NBA niche who has all the physical tools to do so. Marco?s shot is there, though he needs to be more consistent at creating it for himself as a 2-guard, especially since the team does not have a true primary ballhandler. It would also be nice to see Belinelli become more of a self-sufficient SG defender, meaning that other than the high level guys at the position, he can hold his own against most NBA starters at his position. This would make him more than just a role player and could even end up increasing his role on the offense because better D would enable him to play more minutes and establish a clearer role as the open shot killer, similar to former Warrior Mickael Pietrus? role with Orlando on the offensive end. The other large benefit that Marco has in terms of Golden State is that he is still under rookie contract for two more years, making him the best long-term option of the Golden State SG group financially.

Kelenna Azubuike, SG

Kelenna should be a role player on a contending team. His explosiveness and work ethic on and off the floor make him a real asset, particularly when his offensive and defensive roles are well-defined. One of the real challenges for him on the Warriors in the long term is that Azubuike is far more of a SG than a SF, though having Jackson and Maggette (along with Randolph) on roster gobbles up the SF minutes pretty quickly. As such, Kelenna ends up in the off-guard SG glut along with Monta, Marco, Morrow and Crawford if he sticks around, which will necessitate some strong decisions from the Warriors? brass in the immediate, since only two of that group can get the minutes optimal for the team and themselves. Some depth is fine, but too much depth leads to discord.

With that said, Kelenna can absolutely be a part of Golden State?s future should they desire him to be, and his reasonable deal coupled with his talent makes him have value either as a trade asset or as a player to keep around.

Anthony Morrow, SG

It?s hard not to love Morrow. He came into the league undrafted and made a real impact right away with a coach who has a rocky history with rookies. Morrow?s bread and butter is his pretty jumper coupled with unusual savvy in terms of where and when to use it for a player his age. Morrow?s field goal percentage generally improved with more play and more shots taken, though the sample size is still very small. Regardless, it is encouraging to see. If Morrow can become a capable defensive player (a possibility at least), he moves from being a little Microwave to more of a sixth man. The other factor that makes Morrow so appealing in the long term is the fact that he could improve his deadliness on the offensive end with a primary ballhandler, which happens to be the most notable absence on and strongest need for this Warriors squad. I can?t wait to see how the 24 year old improves his game this offseason to (hopefully) separate himself from the pack at SG for the Dubs.

CJ Watson, Off-Guard (defends PG?s)

Watson definitely can be a player in the league in some capacity, but I am somewhat at a loss for either a natural complement or what that role is. One problem that persists for many teams is that they have players who take shots (amount and location) that don?t fit their talents or roles on the team. CJ has periods of time where he absolutely falls into that group. It is genuinely infuriating for a guy as rough around the edges as him to just start gunning it as he did at junctures last season- somewhat different from a guy of Crawford or Stephen Jackson?s skill and history than for Mr. Watson. However, he proves hard to handle when that shot is falling, providing some truly impressive games, like his 38 and 9 against Utah on 16 shots (and 16-for-16 from the line). If Watson can make games like that more than an aberration, a Jarrett Jack-like role or even much more than that would be reasonable.

Unfortunately for the Warriors, the time to make a decision on him is now and not a year or two down the line when we have a more firm grasp on what CJ will become in the NBA. Keeping that in mind, the best path to take considering the cap situation is to keep him around if the price and/or years are low, since he provides value no matter who Golden State takes in the Draft.

Roster Spot Guys

Jermareo Davidson, PF

As one of Jermareo?s biggest backers coming out of college, it was exciting to see him on the squad. Davidson?s surprisingly decent mid-range shot hides the post moves that he should have shown a little more as his minutes increased. I?m a big believer in securing guys with potential for the longer term, so I would rather see management commit a little harder on one or two guys of Davidson?s caliber rather than cycling them in and out like they did this past season.

Rob Kurz, PF

Not bad to have around, though giving him playing minutes of any meaning is a sign of massive injury or a team with nothing to lose. Plus, he fills the obligatory Golden Domer quota that was previously vacant after the Murphleavy deal.

The Salary Cap Situation




After the signing of Maggette and the extension of Stephen Jackson, the Warriors effectively sealed off free agents costing more than the Mid-Level Exception until 2011 at the earliest.

For 2010-2011, the Monta/Biedrins/Maggette/Jackson/Turiaf group (all locked in on deals) will make approximately $42 million, with a cap that will probably end up right around the current cap of $58.68 million. As such, even if Jamal Crawford opts out, the rest of the salaries on the books (rookie contracts, qualifying offers, etc) easily fill up enough space to make free agents out of the question.

Beyond 2011, things appear to open up thanks to the fact that both Biedrins? and Monta?s contracts are flat at a combined $20 million per season. At that point, shedding a contract or two could open up the Free Agent or trade markets.

Building a team

Keeping in mind those constraints, there are a few goals the front office should focus on.

Priority #1 has to be getting a lead guard- it has become painfully clear that Nellieball needs a point man and sadly neither Monta nor Jamal fit that bill. Fortunately, this offseason actually could have a few available, whether that be a more experienced guy like Baron Davis or Kirk Hinrich, the young Mike Conley, or a rookie PG in the draft.

The other major priority is getting the SG rotation in order. The Warriors hold a unique place in today?s NBA because they actually have a talent surplus in certain spots. Depending on what Jamal Crawford decides to do, Golden State has either four or five players under contract that are effectively limited to the off-guard slot. Even if Monta plays out of position as a PG, the other guys still need their minutes for development and team chemistry. This problem is compounded by having both Maggette and Jackson at SF, because their minutes will inevitably boil over here too, making an even bigger mess. Because of those problems, management would be wise to move at least two of the SG types, since two can easily cover the load.

The Warriors can either use their cap flexibility as a hindrance or as a strength in the short and long term, since the fact of the matter is they have a great deal more to play with in terms of eating 2010-2011 salaries since they will be over the cap anyway (but still under the tax level).

While it appears unlikely that guys like Chris Paul could become available, the potential of eating worse contracts for better players could prove lucrative for Golden State. The major problem with this is that moving Al Harrington and extending Stephen Jackson took away their major expiring deals. As such, the team must be much more creative if they go in this direction.

All in all, the Warriors have a great deal of potential to use as a jumping off point, including players like Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, and Monta Ellis who all fit very well in Nellieball.

What?s more, they even have guys like Turiaf and the SG army that can be good role players on playoff teams. Keeping that in mind, the core decisions that need to be made now center on whether that core fits well enough together to commit to building around long-term with the constraints put on by the contracts on the book and the economic realities of the salary cap. Here?s hoping Rowell and company make smart choices and build a team worthy of their fanbase.