Greg Monroe's NBA future is less about upside than it is about the very good chance of him becoming a serviceable center for the next 10+ seasons.
His NBA future on the offensive end is as a cutter, in the pick and roll and as a passer from the high post than as a low post primary scorer.
But we'll start In the post, where Monroe does a good job of backing himself down low ahead of the catch. He does leave himself vulnerable to someone pulling the chair from under him and is the beginning of his balance problems in this area of the game.
He is occasionally a little soft with his hands on the catch, but he does have solid hands.
His post moves are rather simplistic and he will most frequently attempt to shoot over the top of his man without making much of a move. Monroe will occasionally successfully spin past his man or go into a baby hook, but he never gets his man into the air for an up and under. He also appears to lose his sense of where he is on the floor when he is in the post.
I feel like you visibly see Monroe battling himself when attempting to go to work in the post, more so than against any defender. He suffers from a mixture of overthinking and hesitancy that limits his effectiveness. His post-up production was relatively solid during his sophomore season, but I don't see it translating as well it could given his height and potential ability. Monroe was infrequently able to dominate inferior competition that he had a huge advantage over on the basis of his length.
To Monroe's credit, he is a good finisher at the rim when given space and also has impressive touch around the bucket. Monroe has some ability with the right hand, but he very obviously prefers to go up with his left whenever possible, even if the situation doesn't call for it.
Monroe's skill set is much better suited for the mid-post or high post where he can put the ball on the floor, which I'll get to in a second.
Depending on how serious his struggles are initially down low, Monroe could become one of those bigs that shies away from scrapping in the paint as frequently as he should. The proof of that is evidenced with how his defensive rebounds increased by over 100 from his freshman to sophomore season, but he grabbed only 12 more boards. We've all seen guys who are practically seven-footers o with both feet nailed to the ground who have rebounded on the NCAA at a better rate on the offensive glass and even if his assignments to the perimeter are to blame for some of it, he didn't crash the boards like he should.
The upside Monroe does have that could turn him into one of the better bigs in the game, however, is off the dribble. For his size and age, Monroe exhibits well above average gifts with the handle. He will occasionally dribble behind his back, through his legs and has a quick turnover. When Monroe has the ball at the top of the key in the type of role Marcus Camby is known for, he will put the ball on the deck and drive the lane if he doesn't have a pass to make due to defenses playing tight away from the ball.
Camby has demonstrated how a passing big man can have great longevity and that is clearly one of Monroe's most valuable strengths.
Expounding on his ability with the dribble, Monroe plays better when he is forced to move in the halfcourt and also in transition. He has good speed from baseline to baseline and will finish strong when given opportunities, even though nobody would characterize him as freakish athletically.
As a shooter, Monroe has good potential to become a strong threat from 15 to 20 feet away. He has good arc and a clean follow-through. His form is far enough along where Monroe should hit unguarded attempts even as a rookie.
On the defensive end, Monroe isn't an intimidating force that will prevent opponents from attacking the rim. His shot blocking totals, again for a player his size paired against power forward and centers that are four or five inches shorter than he is, is subpar.
There are a few fundamental reasons why Monroe isn't a strong prospect on the defensive end, beginning most importantly with his motor. He is far too upright and appears visibly disinterested in giving a full effort on the defensive end. Monroe doesn't sprint back on defense the way he will to get out on offense and clearly doesn't have a strong enjoyment for the act itself.
Monroe is, for lack of a better term, a lazy help defender. He will be stationary and his knees will lock when he is in help position and that also translates to when he is an on-ball defender. Monroe also doesn't have a good sense of spacing between himself, his man and the ball.
He defended the post fairly well on a statistical level, though he wasn't the kind of guy that could shut down even average bigs. He struggles to front his man while fighting for position and is mostly a tall plank that will try to force opponents to shoot over the top on. Because his lateral quickness is just on the passable level, even marginally talented NBA post players will be able to get around him, as will ballhandlers on the perimeter when guarding against the pick and roll.
While Monroe's work ethic defensively is very disconcerting, it is a perfectly fixable problem, particularly given the kind of character he possesses. If Monroe wants to get out onto the floor, he will certainly need to become more committed defensively and I think his desire and skill will eventually catch up to the height he was blessed with.
Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM. Follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/cr_reina.






