RealGM Analysis
The 2010 free agency has taken on a multitude of forms over the years, with all kinds of what-if scenarios that go well beyond sports being speculated about and considered. But as it actually nears, it is looking increasingly clear that it will ultimately come down to a sober balance between assured max money and the best possible opportunity to win championship(s).
The formula we have endlessly seen when it comes to title winners is the team with the superior top two or three players typically prevails, regardless of depth.
We already largely knew that, but the past two seasons of LeBron James and the Cavaliers have proven that the best player in the game and an unquestionably robust and balanced supporting cast of slightly above average players is not enough to win a championship in most seasons.
LeBron, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade will be the primary decision makers this summer and subsequent free agents will slide in for various teams after they sort out their decisions, but which Big 3 trios would be the best and how do those trios compare historically with others?
For the sake of an objective measuring stick, I have used PER to determine how the trios would perform. The PERs of LeBron, Wade and Bosh would decrease slightly in a number of the below scenarios from where it was during the 09-10 season because their usage would not be as high as it has been given the presence of another ball dominant player.
The Chicago Bulls scenario has been frequently mentioned as possibly the best possible shot for LeBron to win multiple titles, with the existing tandem of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah being young with improvement potential remaining. The Bulls could possibly replace LeBron with Wade in either of the two below scenarios and have just a slightly lower upside and also a smaller window of opportunity, but incredibly formidable nonetheless.
10-11 Bulls
LeBron: 31.2
Rose: 18.7
Noah: 18.0
Total: 67.9
The Bulls could alternately acquire Bosh in a sign-and-trade, but so far everything we've heard is that the front office would be unwilling to sacrifice Noah in the process. I would agree with the general premise of Noah being untouchable, but if the decision came down to a 'take it or leave it' where the Bulls for the next five years would either be LeBron, Rose and Bosh, or Joe Johnson, Rose and Noah, I think the answer should become very simplistic.
To make a rudimentary analogy, the below trio would essentially be taking Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, plus throwing in Gary Payton to play their entire primes together in the 1990s.
10-11 Bulls
LeBron: 31.2
Rose: 18.7
Bosh: 25.1
Total: 75.0
Staying with Bosh's options, the long rumored sign-and-trade for Andrew Bynum sign-and-trade appears less likely now, but here is how the top-three of Bosh, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol would look.
10-11 Lakers
Kobe: 21.2
Gasol: 23.0
Bosh: 25.1
Total: 69.3
The LeBron sign-and-trade for Bynum, or the even crazier LeBron takes the MLE to sign with the Lakers is an extremely implausible scenario, but that team unsurprisingly would be as outstanding as imagined.
10-11 Lakers
LeBron: 31.2
Kobe: 21.2
Gasol: 23.0
Total: 75.4
If LeBron and Bosh decide they want to sign with the Knicks, the third best player would be significantly weaker than Noah, though I would expect Danilo Gallinari to increase his 09-10 PER with the kind of perimeter looks he would begin to receive. Nonetheless, the trio of LeBron, Bosh and Gallinari is superior from a PER perspective because of the strength of that LeBron/Bosh tandem. Bosh could decline from his career high PER immediately and Rose could elevate his game even further, both scenarios are conceivable, which would mean the LeBron/Rose/Noah trio becomes significantly better regardless of what happens to Gallinari under even his most optimistic of circumstances.
10-11 Knicks
LeBron: 31.2
Bosh: 25.1
Gallinari: 14.9
Total: 71.2
Staying with the Knicks, the safety net of signing Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudemire puts New York back into the playoffs, but this clearly would not be a title team and makes the exercise of 2010 cap space, particularly the Tracy McGrady trade, feel completely futile.
10-11 Knicks
Amare: 22.7
Johnson: 19.3
Gallinari: 14.9
Total: 56.9
The Nets now look very unlikely for any of the top-three free agents, but here is what joining the tandem of Brook Lopez and Devin Harris would look like from a PER viewpoint with LeBron.
10-11 Nets
LeBron: 31.2
Lopez: 20.1
Harris: 16.3
Total: 67.6
Bringing Wade back into the equation, if he, LeBron and Bosh decided to play on the same team, whether in Miami for slightly less than the max or in New York for quite a bit less than the max, they would become a historically dominant trio, at least on paper. The PERs for each player would be completely unsustainable, however, so we could safely knock a few points off of each and they would still be substantially better than any compared to below.
As great as the Bird, McHale and Parish combo was, as well as the Magic, Worthy and Kareem one for the Lakers, I don't believe there is a precedent that comes close to this one. LeBron, Wade and Bosh were ranked first, second and fourth respectively in terms of PER for the 09-10 season.
If we look at the 1991 PER leaders, we will see Jordan first, Charles Barkley second and Magic third. Now, imagine Magic is 28 instead of 31 and will not be forced to retire because of HIV.
10-11 Three-Dream Team
LeBron: 31.2
Wade: 28.1
Bosh: 25.1
Total: 84.4
2009-10 Big 3's
2010 Lakers
Kobe: 21.9
Gasol: 22.9
Bynum: 20.2
Total: 65.0
2010 Celtics
Rajon Rondo: 19.1
Kevin Garnett: 19.4
Paul Pierce: 18.2
Total: 56.7
2010 Cavaliers
LeBron: 31.1
Shaquille O'Neal: 17.6
Antawn Jamison: 16.7
Total: 65.4
Note: Because of the insanely high PER of LeBron, the 2010 Cavaliers compare very favorably to many teams that won titles.
Championship Big 3's
2009 Lakers
Kobe: 24.4
Gasol: 22.2
Odom: 16.6
Total: 63.2
2008 Celtics
Garnett: 25.2
Pierce: 19.6
Ray Allen:16.4
Total: 61.2
Note: Lakers trio had a combined PER of 65.1, but the depth of Boston was vastly superior.
2007 Spurs
Tim Duncan: 26.1
Manu Ginobili: 24.1
Tony Parker: 21.4
Total: 71.6
2006 Heat
Wade: 27.6
Shaquille O'Neal: 24.4
Jason Williams: 15.0
Total: 67.0
2005 Spurs
Duncan: 27.0
Ginobili: 22.3
Parker: 18.0
Total: 67.3
2004 Pistons
Rasheed Wallace: 18.8
Chauncey Billups: 18.6
Ben Wallace: 17.3
Total: 54.7
Note: The Lakers combined big three of Shaq, Kobe and Karl Malone was 65.9, which was an substantial differential and is why it is the exception that proves the rule. Interestingly, the 2004 Wolves had a higher PER big three than the Lakers with Garnett, Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell combining at 66.9.
2003 Spurs
Duncan: 26.9
David Robinson: 17.8
Parker: 16.5
Total: 61.2
2002 Lakers
Shaq: 29.7
Kobe: 23.2
Robert Horry: 14.5
Total: 67.4
2001 Lakers
Shaq: 30.2
Kobe: 24.5
Horace Grant: 14.3
Total: 69.0
2000 Lakers
Shaq: 30.6
Kobe: 21.7
Glen Rice: 16.2
Total: 68.5
1999 Spurs
Robinson: 24.9
Duncan: 23.2
Avery Johnson: 14.0
Total: 62.1
1998 Bulls
Michael Jordan: 25.2
Scottie Pippen: 20.4
Toni Kukoc: 17.3
Total: 62.9
Note: The Malone, John Stockton and Jeff Hornacek combo were a 69.0 trio during the 97-98 regular season.
1997 Bulls
Jordan: 27.8
Pippen: 21.3
Kukoc: 20.2
Total: 69.3
1996 Bulls
Jordan: 29.4
Pippen: 21.0
Kukoc: 20.4
Total: 70.8
1995 Rockets
Hakeem Olajuwon: 26.0
Clyde Drexler: 22.1
Kenny Smith: 16.2
Total: 64.4
Note: Orlando's big three of Shaq, Penny Hardaway and Nick Anderson was slightly better at 66.9.
1994 Rockets
Hakeem: 25.3
Otis Thorpe: 16.1
Smith: 14.2
Total: 55.6
Note: The Knicks came in slightly behind Houston at 54.2.
1993 Bulls
Jordan: 29.7
Pippen: 19.2
Grant: 17.5
Total: 66.4
1992 Bulls
Jordan: 27.7
Pippen: 21.5
Grant: 20.6
Total: 69.8
1991 Bulls
Jordan: 31.6
Pippen: 20.6
Grant: 17.6
Total: 69.8
1990 Pistons
Isiah Thomas: 17.3
Joe Dumars: 17.2
Bill Laimbeer: 15.8
Total: 50.3
1989 Pistons
Vinnie Johnson: 17.3
Isiah: 17.1
Dumars: 16.8
Total: 51.2
1988 Lakers
Magic Johnson: 23.1
Byron Scott: 19.2
James Worthy: 18.2
Total: 60.5
Note: The remaining teams are considered some of the absolute greatest all-around teams of the modern era, but the top-three of each weigh-in less than several of the Chicago teams, the 2000-2002 Lakers and also the last two of San Antonio's four title teams. The great Lakers/Celtics teams of the 80s probably had more depth, but I'm not necessarily sold that we can take that common perception completely at face value.
1987 Lakers
Magic: 27.0
Worthy: 18.4
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 17.9
Total: 63.3
1986 Celtics
Larry Bird: 25.6
Kevin McHale: 21.6
Robert Parish: 18.8
Total: 66.0
1985 Lakers
Magic: 23.2
Kareem: 22.9
Worthy: 17.0
Total: 63.1
1984 Celtics
Bird: 24.2
McHale: 20.0
Parish: 19.2
Total: 63.4
1983 76ers
Moses Malone: 25.1
Julius Erving: 23.1
Maurice Cheeks: 18.6
Total: 66.8
1982 Lakers
Kareem: 23.4
Magic: 22.9
Jamaal Wilkes: 16.4
Total: 62.8
1981 Celtics
Parish: 25.2
Bird: 19.9
Cedric Maxwell: 17.6
Total: 62.7
1980 Lakers
Kareem: 25.3
Magic: 20.6
Wilkes: 17.6
Total: 63.5
Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM. Follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/cr_reina.
