The basic takeaway for the Warriors over the past few weeks is fairly uncomplicated: Without one of their top three players, Golden State is an eminently beatable team. Of course, replacing Golden State with just about any other NBA team does not change the validity of that statement in the slightest. However, it does show just how vulnerable this team is to injuries to the core.
It is also worth mentioning that the loss of David Lee, because of a bite from apparent vampire Wilson Chandler was exacerbated by the fact that two other pivotal Warriors bigs are still on the mend from injuries of their own. While neither Louis Amundson nor Ekpe Udoh has shown what they can do in a Golden State uniform, both would have been useful (especially Amundson) in the process of covering for the injured Lee. Losing Brandan Wright, who has been playing reasonably well before his lower back strain, has made the process even more arduous.
Keeping all of that in mind, there have still been some important lessons to be learned while the big man injury bug strikes for a second consecutive season. The first is that while the defensive intensity and coordination has been better this season with Keith Smart at the helm than under Don Nelson, the Warriors need to get smarter about how they defend.
One of the key tasks when the opposing team is on offense is making sure that their players do not put themselves in position to do what they excel at on that end. For example, leaving a big man with a shaky shot alone on the perimeter is OK (especially if he loves his shot) while leaving a good set shooter open to take an uncontested shot is a grave mistake.
In recent games against the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Knicks, the Warriors continued to give players the shots they were looking for as a consequence of help defense or lapses in the overall scheme. Some of these will always happen, yet the good teams try to make sure they happen in ways that harm the team less directly than the Warriors’ recent miscues. When the margins are as tight as they have been for a Lee-less squad, every point and every look counts.
Another compelling element is the nature of the top scorer and the Warriors’ winning percentage. In the seven games before David Lee’s injury, the Warriors possessed the player who led the game in scoring five times and won all five. In their two losses during that stretch, Pau Gasol and Rip Hamilton outscored any member of the Warriors. It’s worth remembering that the opponents Golden State beat during that first stretch were weaker and all but one of those five wins was at home, yet there is some probative value buried in there. In some ways, the leading scorer serves as a dual barometer since guys like Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry can lead the team to wins on their offensive prowess while the presence or lack of an elite scoring night for the opposing side can be strong predictors as well. It will be worth monitoring over the rest of the season.
One final important development has been the emergence of Dorell Wright as an offensive asset. As one of the people dubious of his potential impact on that side of the floor, the last seven games have provided a window into what he could be on a full-strength squad. Over that stretch, Wright has scored 16 or more point in 5 of the 7 games while shooting over 50% from the field in three of those five outbursts. The lingering concern is that his other games were much, much weaker shooting than his positive days, with a 1-for-6 in 30 minutes and a 5-for-17 in 32 minutes lingering in that same seven-game span.
With more control and focus on playing to his offensive strengths, Wright can be an excellent third or fourth option on a team that needs a SF that makes team pay on open looks while not taking excessive shots away from more prolific and dangerous offensive talent. If Dorell can become that guy game in and game out, this team becomes that much more dangerous against any type of opponent.
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