Maryland Terrapin Watch

Mark Turgeon entered the season on the hot seat and Maryland is in its first season in the Big Ten. I set the Terrapin Watch column feature aside when injuries to Evan Smotrycz and Dez Wells made it hard to evaluate the team, but with everyone on the roster available for the start of Big Ten play, today seems like a good time to write a longer piece on the Terrapins. Maryland opened its Big Ten season on the road Tuesday at Michigan St.

Rivalries can exist for a number of reasons. Some exist because of in-state or neighboring-state geography. Some exist because of years of tradition. But one of the building blocks of rivalry is a feeling that your team is being slighted at the expense of the other team. The opponent isn’t really better, they just won because of a couple of ridiculous calls. Even if Tuesday’s game wasn’t a basketball classic, it did set the stage for a little hatred on both sides because of the plethora of bizarre calls that could have easily swung the double OT game.

Why was there a whistle after the opening tip? And why did the redo look worse than the initial tip? Why were there so many reviews of three point baskets, and why did only the Michigan St. three point shot get reversed to a two when the camera angles weren’t clear? Did Maryland’s Damonte Dodd really foul out? If so, why did ESPN’s stats have him at only four fouls? And how convenient was it that Dodd fouled out shortly after a momentum swinging block of Michigan St.’s Branden Dawson? The double lane violation was truly bizarre. On a free throw attempt, a Maryland player jumped into the lane early, but the Spartan player also air-balled the free throw, resulting in the possession arrow giving the ball to Michigan St. Did that make sense? Should there have been a goal-tend on the play which caused Mark Turgeon to get a technical in OT? And shouldn’t Dez Well have been called for a technical for holding on the rim in double OT?

If you see the world through rose-colored home-team glasses, both fanbases had reason to be unhappy. And that sets the stage perfectly for rivalry. Michigan St. fans certainly don’t feel like the better team won. They’ll complain about the fact that there were no students in attendance due to the break, the fact that Dez Wells needed a miracle three to send the game to OT, and point to a subset of the above factors.

Meanwhile, Maryland fans won’t be satisfied either. They’ll feel that Michigan St. has long gotten too much hype. (Who has the more recent national title?) And that even after the win, the media isn’t giving Maryland enough respect for the road win, which given a subset of the above factors, was actually more impressive than it looks.

In the end, it may not replace the rivalries Maryland lost, but it was a nice first step towards creating a little fanbase animosity.

Finally, everyone says the Terrapins are a surprise, but they aren’t a huge surprise. I had them just out of the Top 25 in the preseason, and that was only because of concerns about having a freshman PG in Melo Trimble. But with Trimble playing well for a freshman, Maryland actually has incredible depth.

I felt the announcers were pushing things a little too far when they said Maryland’s turnaround was addition by subtraction. Yes, the Terrapins lost five players to transfer, but the reality is that at least three of those players weren’t going to crack the rotation even if they stayed. A lot of the player defections came because the incoming talent was better than the incumbent talent, not because the incumbent players were locker-room cancers.

I don’t think Mark Turgeon is getting enough credit for the team’s play. I thought on Tuesday, Turgeon had the more well-coached team. When Evan Smotrycz got the ball while defended by the much smaller Travis Trice, he immediately attacked and got an inside basket. That seems like such an obvious play, but it takes a well-coached team to execute it. Maryland had to give Smotrycz space (by clearing that side of the floor) and feed him the ball close enough to the basket to make a play.

I also thought Maryland clearly had a game plan to attack Michigan St.’s Tum Tum Nairn. On almost every possession, they drove on Nairn and attacked the basket, and they seemed to know pre-game that Nairn wasn’t able to stop the Maryland players off the dribble. I’ve rarely seen a player exploited as quickly as Nairn was, as all Nairn could do on Tuesday was reach out and foul.

Finally, Turgeon’s substitutions also felt perfect. When Michigan St.’s Matt Costello posted up in a tight game in OT, Turgeon brought in 7’1 Michal Cekovsky, and he immediately got a block.

That’s not to say that Maryland didn’t also have some great athletic plays. Jake Layman’s steal, and coast-to-coast basket holding off the defender was fantastic for a man with his size. But for the most part, Maryland didn’t win with superior athleticism. They won by grinding out plays in a tough venue. The coach deserves some credit for that.

Improved on Defense

Green Bay picked up a nice win over Georgia St. on Tuesday giving them revenge for the loss earlier in the non-conference season. With the win at Miami FL earlier in the year, Green Bay should have a solid enough resume to earn a 12 or 13 seed in the NCAA tournament, depending on how they do in conference play. They don’t hold a win over Virginia like they did last season, but Kenpom.com actually thinks this is a stronger team this season.

This is a bit of a surprise. I thought after Green Bay lost the 7’1” Alec Brown that the defense might take a step back. After all, look at how UC Irvine has done this year. With 7’6” Mamadou Ndiaye out since November, the Irvine defense has not been nearly as dominant as last year, falling from 23^rd nationally to 99^th. But Green Bay’s defense is actually playing better than last season even without the 7 footer.

Defense is notoriously hard to predict. Our measured player stats are poor, and it is usually not very clear how a group of players will fit together. Regardless, here are the 30 teams with the most improved defenses this season:

-National favorites Duke and Kentucky are both on this list. I’m not convinced that the Harrison twins are elite defenders at this point, but the platoon system seems to have changed their playing style slightly. Last year, they were more interested in staying on the floor and conserving energy on defense. This year the Harrison twins have been much more aggressive and gotten more tipped balls and steals. Andrew Harrison in particular, had a paltry 1% steal rate last season, and that’s up to 3% this season.

-Temple had almost no depth last year, and this year with a slightly deeper rotation, the defense has taken a step forward.

-Washington added a 7 foot shot-blocker in Robert Upshaw.

-I suspected Oklahoma’s defense would be better with two true forwards on the floor. Cam Clark played out of position at forward last year. It was just a matter of how much better.

-I suspected Auburn’s defense would be better under head coach Bruce Pearl, it was just a matter of how much better. Now Auburn just needs to upgrade its offensive skill position players.

-Red Flag: St. John’s is a legitimately good defensive team. With Chris Obekpa anchoring the middle, their 2 PT FG% has been outstanding. But St. John’s defense probably isn’t as good as it has looked so far. St. John’s opponents are making just 55.8% of their free throws and 26.2% of their threes, and those rates simply aren’t sustainable over the full season. Had St. John’s opponents performed closer to the NCAA average in those areas, St. John’s defense would be closer to 15^th nationally than 3^rd.

[Editorial Note: This column was written before Seton Hall upset St. John’s on Wednesday.]

Early NCAA surprises Indiana, Baylor, and Old Dominion have also been a bit fortunate in these non-sustainable defensive categories. Providence, Vanderbilt, and Davidson also may be a tad over-rated as their 3 PT% and FT% defense is far better than their 2PT% defense. That will probably catch up to these six teams, at least somewhat, in conference play.

-Comparatively, West Virginia has gotten better at forcing turnovers and rebounding, and success in those areas tends to be more sustainable.

Quick Notes

-Florida’s Jacob Kurtz started as a walk-on but he has been unbelievably valuable as a fill-in when Florida has been missing players the last three years. In fact, he’s even been playing minutes ahead of some highly recruited Gator players this year. To see such a hard-working player accidently tip-in the game-winner for the opposing team (Florida St.) was heartbreaking. Sometimes the hard-working walk-on stories don’t have happy endings.

-Missouri lost to Oklahoma St. on Tuesday, and the loss was a microcosm of their season. They got the ball back with 8.8 second left when the officials ruled it off an Oklahoma St. player. (It probably should have been a foul on Missouri, but they caught a break.) And then they couldn’t even get up a game-tying or winning shot because they couldn’t inbound the ball. Miraculously, Missouri still made a three at the buzzer after a FT miss which sent the game into OT. Then in OT, Missouri was down one with a chance to take the winning shot, but again they turned the ball over. Missouri is getting better, but they are still making too many mistakes to win.