NBA Season Preview: Washington Wizards

RealGM Analysis

by Brett Koremenos

Oct 22, 2015 10:30 PM

Here's the next installment of our team-by-team season preview series on the Washington Wizards:

2014-15 Record: 46-36

Notable Acquisitions: Jared Dudley (Trade), Alan Anderson (FA), Kelly Oubre (Draft), Gary Neal (FA)

Notable Departures: Paul Pierce

Temperature Check:

After a promising postseason run was derailed by an injury to John Wall, the Wizards chose to mostly stand pat as they entered the 2015-16 season. Gone is sage veteran Paul Pierce and in his place are veterans Jared Dudley, Alan Anderson and Gary Neal. With more shooting and a directive to play with more pace, Washington seems primed to race toward the top of the Eastern Conference.

Inside the Playbook:

With one of the league’s fastest and most explosive playmakers at their disposal, the Wizards are looking to to change their general style from last season. Armed with a rotation of big men without range to the 3-point line, Washington was forced to find maximum efficiency in both their spacing and movement.

In general, the team relied more on the slick passing duo of Marcin Gortat and Nene (when he was healthy) rather than Wall directly to funnel the ball to open players.

You can see on that possession how Nene and Gortat must get into a choreographed dance with each ball handler in order to open up space for the rolls to the rim. The way they did that is by having the big outside the pick-and-roll circle along the baseline into the path of the ballhandler. It’s a good move for the roll men and fit the passing skills of Gortat and Nene well, but it also limited Wall’s ability to penetrate and make direct kickouts for himself.

This year in the preseason, you can see the Wizards’ onus on spreading the floor and playing more up tempo. While Nene has been out with an injury, Kris Humphries has auditioned as something of a stretch-4. The combination of Humphries' spacing outside the arc and Wall pushing the tempo has created possessions that look like this:

The key to that sequence was based in Humphries' ability to run his lane hard in transition, then re-space to open up the lane and in order to have catch-and-shoot after Wall’s penetration got the ball pinging around the perimeter. It’s plays like this that should worry Washington’s opponents in the East. With Wall being unleashed to attack defenses earlier and with more space, the Wizards could be a serious threat for the Finals.

Lineup to Watch:

Marcin Gortat-Jared Dudley-Otto Porter-Brad Beal-John Wall

In the 51 minutes that Pierce played with the four Washington holdovers during the playoffs, the Wizards trashed opponents by 17.9 points per 48 minutes. While that’s clearly a sample size too small for serious consideration, it’s certainly an indicator that this group could rip through the league if used as the Wizards closing lineup.

The key for them to do that, however, will be hinging on Dudley’s health and effectiveness. If he struggles with health maladies -- he’s already recovering from a back injury -- and slumps to his league average mark from 3 as he did during his lone season with the Clippers, Dudley won’t be nearly as effective a weapon for Wall. Should Dudley rip the nets up from deep, coming close to his mark of 39.6 percent from deep, this will be a really potent Washington lineup.

But the problem with Dudley is that he’s obviously not as well-rounded as Pierce offensively. Pierce could operate as a secondary pick-and-roll player and even short clock bailout option. Dudley is (and always has been) pretty much a catch-and-shoot player throughout his career. It’s somewhat limiting, but it shouldn’t stop this quintet from terrorizing opponents this season.

The Wildcard:

Jared Dudley

Humphries has been a good soldier with his attempt to play the role of stretch big in Dudley’s absence, but it’s clearly not a role he’s suited to excel at -- at least right now. As mentioned in the lineup section above, Washington’s ceiling as a team will be significantly higher if the team can consistently maximize the space around Wall.

Though Humphries has shown a willingness to do it and Otto Porter has the ability to slide to that spot for short stretches, the onus of such a lineup will fall on Dudley. Even though he’s 6-foot-7, he’s the only player on the roster capable of filling such a role for extended stretches. Not to beat a dead horse (or a live one, really), but if Dudley is healthy and productive Washington has a chance to be very, very good. But if the team’s new stretch 4 ends up missing large chunks of time and/or is ineffective during times he’s suited up, it’ll be much harder for the Wiz to work their way up the standings.

Coach’s Question:

Will the Wizards be able to maintain their pace as the season wears on?

There’s something of a coaching axiom that states that teams that play fast, must be committed to playing fast, it simply cannot be a sometimes thing. And over 82 games and the playoffs, it’s going to be interesting to see how committed the Wizards stay to a faster tempo, especially given the personnel on their roster.

With Nene and Gortat as their two most productive bigs, an injured (and consistently dinged up) Dudley the lone player on the roster capable of stretching the floor from the 4 spot, it’s easy to see the team gradually slow its pace as the season wears on. To make sure they don’t fall off pace (literally!), head coach Randy Wittman will have to make sure to structure his valuable in-season practice time to reinforce this new approach.

Because let’s face it, nearly every team loves the idea of playing faster, but only the groups truly committed to such a style actually do it.

Best Case Scenario:

54-28 If…

Dudley stays healthy and productive, allowing Wall to find even another level with more space and a faster tempo. Wittman manages his balance in the frontcourt with aplomb, not overlapping styles by playing two traditional bigs together -- like Gortat and Nene -- then downshifting to smaller, faster lineups suited to play very differently. Beal doesn’t just stay healthy for an entire season, but takes his game near All-Star level.

Worst Case Scenario:

45-37 If…

The Dudley experiment fails and the team struggles to fill the stretch floor role with anyone else on the roster. Wall and/or Beal miss extended time and Wittman fails to find consistency with his frontcourt rotation.

Click here for a full list of NBA Season Previews from Brett Koremenos.

Tags: Washington Wizards, NBA