Miami’s sudden transformation into an impenetrable submarine makes zero sense when you look at who’s on the team: Rodney McGruder, Willie Reed, Luke Babbitt, and Okaro White (sure) are all semi-major contributors.

The Heat started the year off as a disjointed group of castoffs on minimum deals, flawed prospects in the infant stages of development, and talented veterans who’re better off on a team that isn’t in need of a transformative overhaul. On January 13th, they were a depressing yet enthusiastic 11-30. Today, they’re a juggernaut.

Major injuries to Justise Winslow, Josh McRoberts, and Josh Richardson piled atop Chris Bosh’s mournful blood clot dilemma made the 16-17 season seem destined for a tank job. So much so that team president Pat Riley poured salt on the fire by acknowledging his franchise’s dour situation, but promising a quick turnaround—presumably by using this year’s lottery pick as a Get Out of Jail Free card.

Instead, they went on an incredulous 11-game win streak. Only three were played outside South Florida—and two were against the Brooklyn Nets—but Miami still mowed down respectable opponents like the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks.

Some games were close calls that could’ve gone either way, but the Heat also blew the doors off Atlanta and demolished the Philadelphia 76ers. The only team with a better net rating over the last 11 games is the Warriors, and the only team with a better defense is the San Antonio Spurs. This is good, but it’s also terrible. We’ll get to that in a bit.

Before we do, let’s break down how any of this is possible. The true catalysts behind it all are Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters (sure). Dragic is quietly having a remarkable season, after entering it as a logical trade chip; his shooting splits during this win streak are unbelievable: 56.5/58.7/70.4. He’s averaging 24 points, seven assists and five boards per game and remains a predictably aggressive road runner in the open floor.

Even though a career-low 15.5 percent of his points are accumulated on fastbreaks, Dragic still loves to put his head down, jut his shoulder out and burrow towards the rim regardless of who/how many stand in his way. Miami has dominated the other team when he’s on the floor, particularly when Waiters is by his side. The 25-year-old came to Miami needing to resurrect his career, and right on cue Erik Spoelstra became his personal deacon.

Waiters’ impressive individual defense, especially against larger forwards, has carried over from last year’s postseason, and he’s upped his assist rate while cutting down on the obnoxious mid-range jumpers that made him a cult hit for all the wrong seasons. Waiters is attacking the crap out of the basket, and only three players—Dragic, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook—average more assists on drives. He does a great job holding onto the ball until he’s nearly at the rim before kicking it out to a wide-open teammate.

None of this means he’s fallen out of love with hearing the ball repeatedly pound off wood into his fingertips, or the use of off-balance, contested jumpers as a primary source of nourishment. But Waiters lives, and has (so far) put himself in a tremendous position to get paid this summer.

Some of Miami’s success is still a little fluky. Opponents are only shooting 28.4 percent on above-the-break threes (lowest in the league) and 21.4 percent when no defender is within 4-6 feet. Those numbers will rise after the All-Star break. And for all the nice things said above about Waiters, he’s been a walking aberration during Miami’s win streak; the career 34.1 percent three-point shooter has knocked down exactly half his outside shots, including an absurd 45 percent on pull ups. Expect the Sacramento Kings to max him out if that continues.

Miami has adopted small-ball as a baseline identity, and their new starting five (Dragic, Waiters, McGruder, Babbitt, and Hassan Whiteside) can’t stop anybody.

But let’s not bury the lede. Instead of elbowing for position at the bottom of the lottery, this surge leaves the Heat two games back of the Detroit Pistons for a playoff spot. It’s all so unimaginable, and the source of discontent for any rational Heat fan who understands that the most logical path back to world-beating status is by adding a true franchise player. And the best way to get one of those is with a high draft pick.

Instead of landing in the top three with odds upward of 35 percent, Miami needs a prayer to land a top-10 talent. Forward thinkers out there know how devastating this is. No healthy contributors on this year’s team will be on the Heat’s next success story. That includes Dragic and probably even Whiteside, whose rim protection and rebounding aren’t enough substance to outweigh his inability to guard in space—Miami’s defense allows 4.0 more points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court.

The focus should instead be to draft the next Dwyane Wade, surround him with blue-chip prospects like Winslow and Richardson, then re-stock their cupboard by cashing out on the vets before this year’s trade deadline.

The Heat keep this year’s first-round pick, but next year’s is headed to the Phoenix Suns if it falls outside the top seven. Miami’s 2021 first-round pick also belongs to the Suns; thanks to the Ted Stepien Rule, they aren’t allowed to trade their 2019, 2020, or 2022 first-round picks, either.

This puts Miami in an obvious bind. Even though Riley’s had a ton of success building through free agency, cap space is much less valuable today than it was when he courted LeBron James and Bosh, and it’s unlikely any All-Star free agents who do leave their incumbent organizations will do so to join a borderline playoff team.

There’s something to be said about winning 11 games in a row, something only the Warriors, Spurs, Hawks, and Cleveland Cavaliers have bested over the last three years. It’s hard, impressive, and establishes good habits on and off the court that aren’t shared by perennial losers.

But this is also the real-life equivalent of ordering a large pizza at 3 a.m., then eating the entire thing in one sitting. It feels so satisfying and right in the moment, but eventually, in one form or another, you’ll come to regret it.