As we adjust our gaze from the NBA trade deadline to the All-Star break and, soon, the stretch run to the playoffs, I thought this would be a good time to zero in on the players and teams that will demand your attention going forward.

We already know the title favorites. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are the heavy favorites, followed by the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, San Antonio Spurs, New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons. That’s your inner circle of contenders.

But we also know that something unexpected will happen, an unexpected team will get hot and burn a hole through the playoff bracket and maybe even make it all the way to the Finals. Maybe even win it! These things happen because a certain player rises to the occasion, gets healthy at the right time or takes a leap just when his team needs it most.

In other words, these things happen because of X-factors. Here are five things that could swing the 2026 title race.

1. James Harden in Cleveland

I was a big fan of this trade for the Cavs when they first made it, and I’m an even bigger fan of it now after seeing it for a few go-rounds. This column isn’t about evaluating the trade, but since I already dragged us here, my take is basically this: I’m of the belief that teams in championship windows should do everything they can to maximize said championship window. The Cavaliers are in their championship window right now, and James Harden is a better player right now than Darius Garland. Ten years older, yes. But that’s immaterial for at least the rest of this season and next. Even if this trade looks bad in three, four or five years, Cavaliers fans should rest easy knowing their team went for it when they should have.

Harden gives the Cavs offense exactly what it was missing with Garland out and/or hobbled this season.

The Cavaliers had the league’s top offense last season and ranked sixth in drives per game (51.2, according to Second Spectrum). Donovan Mitchell and Garland mitigated their fit issues by constantly putting pressure on the rim and kicking out to Cleveland’s shooters. 

This season, the offense stalled in part because the drives dried up. After ranking near the top of the league in drives, the Cavs slipped to 17th (46 per game) before making the Harden trade. That number is already trending up.

Adding Harden, one of the league’s most frequent gas guzzlers, is a turnkey solution to what ailed Cleveland’s offense. His passing – particularly in the pick-and-roll – will also help juice Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in what have been down seasons. 

The deal makes them a serious contender in the East. And this is the part where I bring up Harden’s playoff warts. That’s what makes this an X-factor. Are the Cavs good enough to withstand any postseason stutters? Mitchell is the best guard Harden has played with since leaving Houston, so the Cavs might be better set up to shift some of Harden’s responsibilities if he starts to turn into a pumpkin.

2. Victor Wembanyama in the playoffs

Are you buying the Spurs as championship contenders yet? Name a metric or historic precedent, and the Spurs are checking the box. Top 10 in offensive and defensive rating? Check. Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule? Two wins and four losses away. Looking good. Top three seed? Not only that, the Spurs are in striking distance of the Thunder for the No. 1 seed in the West.

But the biggest reason you should be buying the Spurs is the big man in the middle, Victor Wembanyama. One of the stories of the season is the Spurs taking Wembanyama off the playmat and trusting him and his teammates to play serious basketball – and boy, are they! 

Wembanyama is playing at an MVP level, anchoring the league’s third-best defense and pacing the seventh-rated offense. Wemby’s commitment to ethical basketball has a young Spurs team rising up the ranks ahead of schedule.

So why is Wembanyama an X-factor? 

Well, for one, we haven’t seen him in the playoffs. Wembanyama’s presence alone is a matchup manipulator, regular season or postseason, but what happens when opposing coaches dial up specific counters? 

We’ve seen Spurs coach Mitch Johnson toggle how he uses Wembanyama on defense, occasionally taking him off the opposing center and having him lurk off a non-shooter. The Spurs have done this against the Oklahoma City Thunder to great success, vaporizing OKC’s paint touches en route to a 4-1 advantage this season. Late in a tight game against the Rockets last month, the Spurs swapped his assignment from Alperen Sengun to Amen Thompson. Houston scored just 13 points in the fourth quarter as the Spurs rolled to a win.

Those are playoff-type adjustments in the regular season and, frankly, we didn’t see the same level of counter from OKC’s Mark Daigneault or Houston’s Ime Udoka in those games. Those are good coaches. They have the film and will have counters should they meet in the playoffs.

As good as Wembanyama has been on defense, he may be even more important to San Antonio’s offense. When Wembanyama is on the court, the Spurs’ score at a rate that would equal the fourth-best offense in the league. When he’s off the court, they score at a bottom-10 rate. Can the Spurs offense survive those minutes when he’s off the court against dialed-in playoff opponents?

And how many minutes will Wembanyma play? He’s averaging just 29 minutes per game in the regular season – can he handle a significant uptick as the Spurs' opponents play their best players more?

Nobody doubts Wembanyama’s impact or star power. Counters, inexperience and minutes are why he’s an X factor.

3. Jayson Tatum’s comeback

Tatum participated in his first 5-on-5 scrimmage with the Celtics’ G League affiliate this week, but the team is cautioning against a return.

Still, it’s hard not to wonder whether Tatum can make a comeback at some point before May or June. After all, the Celtics could be playing deep into the postseason without him.

Jaylen Brown has taken the baton and I’m not sure he’ll ever give it back. He’s playing well enough that he’d have a point. Fourth in the league in scoring and will definitely earn some MVP votes. (And not just because Boston media tends to have outsized influence on such things – ahem – Marcus Smart DPOY – ahem. Brown actually deserves it!) 

Tatum’s comeback could spark some awkwardness, but probably not at first, while Tatum works his way back. The Celtics can use “role player” Tatum’s rebounding, defense and 3-point shooting (especially since trading away Anfernee Simons) in a bad way.

These Celtics, even with Tatum back, probably aren’t good enough to beat whoever comes out of the West, but they are good enough to come out of the East if the right shooters get hot and their young players step up. At the very least, adding Tatum for the stretch run gives them more cushion in case that doesn’t happen. At best, it brings a top-10 player back into the fold.

4. An Ausar Thompson leap

A lot of people wondered whether the Pistons would make a major move at the deadline, with Michael Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen as oft-cited targets. Well, the Pistons did make a move for… Kevin Huerter. Not exactly the big splash that was flooding trade machines.

Pistons GM Trajan Langdon told reporters after the deadline that he doesn’t want to skip steps and opted against a big move.

"There were some things, whether it was the other team pulling out or us just saying, now's not the right time for that," Langdon said. "There were some things that I wouldn't say, got close, that we thought about but didn't execute."

Part of the process is evaluating the team in the playoffs to get a better idea of what they’re missing.

“What's our rotation, who are the guys that step up in crunch time," Langdon said. "The hope is we give ourselves a chance to play meaningful basketball in the postseason and that'll allow us to assess what this team is and who we are going forward."

There’s no question that Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren are core parts of the team going forward, but the Pistons need a dynamic wing who can help alleviate Cunningham and diversify a pick-and-roll-heavy offense. Enter Ausar Thompson. 

Thompson has been a starter since Day 1 in Detroit, but has plateaued offensively in his third season (although he’s never been better defensively, as he’s quietly building a Defensive Player of the Year campaign). 

He’s a reliable finisher when he gets to the basket, but he still doesn’t take 3s (just 20 attempts from beyond the arc all season) and averages under three assists per game, mostly on dribble handoffs and kickouts after hustling for offensive rebounds. In other words, Thompson plays mostly like a big man for a team that needs him to play more like a wing.

That said, he’s shown improvement as a ball-handler this season and the Pistons may want to explore giving him more reps down the stretch in preparation for the playoffs. Don’t forget that the Knicks basically played him off the court toward the end of their series last postseason. Thompson needs to be able to punish defenses for playing off him, if not with his shot, then by eating up the space they are giving him. (He’s attempting a career-high from floater range, 3-10 feet, but needs to make them at a better clip.)

It might be too much to ask Thompson to revamp the way he plays with 20 games left in the regular season, but if he can start making a mini-leap now and into the playoffs, it’s the sort of thing that could lift the Pistons from “happy to be here” to “WE’RE HERE NOW.”

5. The Charlotte Hornets

That’s not a typo. Yes, the Charlotte freaking Hornets.

Don’t look now, but the Hornets are tied for the league’s best record since Jan. 1 and, in that time, have the league’s second-rated offense and fifth-rated defense. 

Part of that is due to dramatic 3-point shooting luck (no team has allowed a lower percentage from 3, while the Hornets are making 3s at the third-highest clip in that span) so they’ll likely come back down to Earth at some point, but the bones of a winning team are here. 

Former Celtics assistant Charles Lee has cooked up a real math advantage. The Hornets are an elite defensive rebounding team and rarely send opponents to the free-throw line, ensuring that they don’t give up extra points while they spam the 3-point line. 

The Baby Celtics aren’t ready to make a push for the East crown, but they can certainly play spoiler. Among lineups that have played 200 minutes together, the Hornets’ starting group is the best five-man unit in basketball. That group will only play more together in a playoff series.

If they make it out of the play-in tournament, are we sure the Hornets can’t knock off the Pistons, Celtics or Knicks in a first-round series?

Charlotte’s commitment to its identity, 3-point variance and math advantage should keep those teams on their toes.

Worth mentioning: Aaron Gordon’s health, Ayo Dosunmu in Minnesota, Jalen Williams/OKC shooters (will anyone get hot?) and, as always, Joel Embiid.