RealGM Analysis
Boston 45-37
Antoine Walker represented a significant scoring threat and he was REASONABLY efficient overall, not a big monster or anything but a strong reason for their success. He also improved Paul Pierce?s play. Gary Payton was the steady veteran hand on point, a double-digit scorer and all that. He can?t D up against faster guards anymore and was probably underutilized on offense (he still has a nasty post game) but his loss was also significant.
Where the Celtics go this year depends entirely on how well their youth plays. What will Tony Allen, Delonte West, Al Jefferson, Marcus Banks, Ryan Gomes, Justin Reed, Dan Dickau, Gerald Green and Kendrick Perkins bring to the table? Ricky Davis and Paul Pierce are not enough to carry this team. They?ll probably end up with around 35-40 wins and will miss the playoffs.
Danny Ainge and the Celtics have professed that this year is a youth movement. That?s code for ?we?re probably not going to make the playoffs.?
Theoretically, they?re starting lineup should look something like this:
C Raef LaFrentz
PF Al Jefferson
SF Ricky Davis
SG Paul Pierce
PG Delonte West
It?s possible that Dan Dickau might start at the point and Ricky Davis might be 6th man to Tony Allen.
That team right there won?t make the playoffs. As I said before, the young guys will have to produce in a big way for that to happen. They?ve got to fill the void left by Walker and Payton, who together put together an Oscar Robertson season. That?s about 30 ppg, 12 rpg and 9 and a half assists per. That?s a big chunk of their overall attack. It is to be expected that their offense will drop off with Al Jefferson manning the paint instead of Walker playing his... err? unique brand of offense, so that?ll be a tough adjustment and Payton?s veteran experience at the point will be missed. Also, Payton shot 46.8% from the floor and even though that produced only a little over 11 points per game, having one of your starters playing that efficiently is extremely important. Delonte West will not produce that kind of offense with similar efficiency, none of the Celtics will.
So facing a significant drop in overall offensive capacity and offensive efficiency, the Celtics are going to struggle to beat teams because they are not a great defensive team either. The Celtics prospects are actually down over last year because in the short term they?ve got growing pains at which to look forward. In a year or two, this will change but for the moment, the Celtics are a decent bet to miss the postseason.
Another problem plaguing the Celtics is a lack of height and interior play in general. They?ve got two guys at 6?10 (Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson), one guy at 6?11 (Raef LaFrentz) and two seven-footers (Mark Blount and Curtis Borchardt).
Kendrick Perkins is not going to make a serious impact this year, though he?s apparently improving noticeably each off-season. Al Jefferson is a more difficult prospect to judge; he?s got the offensive moves but does he have the on-court staying power? His passing and defense are still suspect; he?s straight out of HS and most HS players don?t impact noticeably until year 3. Raef LaFrentz is a soft, injury-prone perimeter player, though last year he played 80 games and blocked 1.24 shots in 27 minutes per or so. He?ll contribute decent offense and some weakside help. Mark Blount was a waste of money after a contract year and Curtis Borchardt is a big waste of flesh with bad feet.
They?ve got basically one option for interior offense and that?s Jefferson. As far as interior D, Raef LaFrentz presents some shot-blocking but against teams with post scorers, the Celtics are in deep trouble.
Now, the major argument here is that Ricky Davis and Paul Pierce both represent significant offense and that Pierce is a pretty good defender and rebounder, etc. It?s true that this is a team that has strengths but like Cleveland last year, two strong scorers do not a playoff team make. They have too much youth, too many gaps and weaknesses and too many questions to be a serious playoff contender.
Theoretically, since the season has yet to be played, I could be wrong and they could surprise with another 45-win season but I?m expecting 38-40 wins this season and I don?t see that being enough to make the playoffs with the improvements the East has made this year.
Philadelphia 43-39
Philly is an intriguing team; they won?t exit the first round if they get there but their success hinges on three major issues:
Health
If Allen Iverson and Webber are healthy for 70+ games each, this is a postseason team. Webber will be somewhat healthier; still a shell of his old self, if the new coach uses him properly (e.g. in the high post instead of the low block), then he will look more like his old self. Webber doesn?t have the athleticism to be a face-up scorer anymore and he never had the strength of variety of post moves to be a seriously effective post scorer. When he was more athletic, he had the potential but it?s too late now. His greatest asset is his high post passing anyway and he can really help Philly?s ball movement. Taking the ball out of AI?s hands a little and running it through Webber will help, though it?d work better if Iverson had anything resembling a consistent shot or consistent range on his jumper. Still, with Kyle Korver on the outside and AI doing his thing, the Sixers can still take advantage of Webber?s skills.
Youth
What will Iguodala, Korver, Green, Salmons and Dalembert do? This is a huge question; if they all have strong years, Philly could make the second round. They still can?t stand up to the Pacers, Heat or even the Brown-less Pistons but they could make some serious noise in the postseason.
Jamal Mashburn
A lot of people forget about him. If he?s healthy, this team takes on a whole new appearance because Mashburn is one of those players who can do a little of everything. Even a half season of production out of him will help the Sixers in jockeying for a good playoff spot and if he?s healthy in the playoffs (and obviously, if the team gels), then the Sixers could actually make the Conference Finals if the matchups are favorable en route (e.g. if they play the Pistons in the second round). Mashburn?s versatility and experience will be helpful if he can stay healthy.
New Jersey 42-40
Clearly, New Jersey is a team on the rise. Last season, they started slow due to injuries and a lack of Vince Carter. Even if Vince returns to the form he displayed in Toronto in 2003-2004, he is still going to present an extraordinarily potent array of offensive tools to the Nets. They will be one of the best teams in the West so long as they are healthy. With Jefferson and Carter running the break with Jason Kidd, the Nets are going to have an intensely potent offensive attack.
The main factor in how dominant the Nets will be (aside from health) will be the effort put forth by Carter. Even as he put together a career-high in free throw attempts per game last season, he is still not as aggressive as a guy like Tracy McGrady (who is also criticized for shooting too much but still manages to get to the line more often) and certainly not in the elite class filled with guys like Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant. His effort on the defensive end will also be telling.
I don?t want to sound like a bitter Raptors fan, so I?ll go out on a limb and say Carter will be as energized as last year. He is in a winning situation with good teammates, some developing youth and half-way competent vets and he?s generally good about playing well on good teams, he just doesn?t have the mental toughness or leadership skills to excel in bad situations (or to be a true superstar, for that matter, but as second fiddle, he?s about the best in the biz). The Nets aren?t at all deep but they are still a team that will be powerful in the regular season. They will probably win the division, which means they?ll take the third seed, which means they?ll face whoever is sixth. That will likely be Cleveland or Chicago or someone with whom they can honestly contend, so it is not unlikely that the Nets will make it into the second round this year. There, they will be summarily thumped by Detroit or Indiana (or even Miami if they don?t take the number one seed), but it will be a successful season in the eyes of most of the fans, I imagine. They aren?t a contending team by any stretch of the imagination and may not actually get out of the first round if Cleveland has gelled strongly (and if that is actually whom they face) but if healthy, the Nets are still the best of the middle of the pack.
Toronto 33-49
Toronto will be dead last in this division. It hurts me to say it but they are going to be a terrible, terrible team. They lost a key player for nothing and our now fully into the rebuilding stage. In my opinion (as you can see in my last article), I think they are going in the right direction but this is a year in which they step back to step forward. They will win between 25 and 30 games, I think.
Bosh and Rose are the only serious scorers on this team. Morris Peterson is not a scorer; he?s too inconsistent, not aggressive enough, and not intelligent enough in terms of the game of basketball to make the right decisions to get good shot opportunities. He?s abandoned the slashing game that made him so effective in his first few years in favor of shooting the three from the pocket on the break and on kick-outs and as a result has no consistency to his game. His only asset is his defense.
Bonner must have offense created for him; he?s a nice addition but certainly not a huge threat. Araujo is obviously not a threat, though I see him improving noticeably this year. Alston is another guy who can score a little but the Raptors need him to be primarily a distributor, not a scorer. Jose Calderon is an unknown quantity, having never played an NBA game before. Joey Graham, likewise; he?s a rookie with great run-jump athleticism, fantastic strength and an awesome body. He also spent much of his college career as a power forward, or so I understand. His game is somewhat mechanical, kind of like Jason Richardson when he hit the league. Richardson hit the league scoring over 14 ppg and I think Graham can do the same if he?s featured on offense (he?s got a better shot than Richardson does even now, so it?s possible, though Richardson has more hops). I doubt he will be, however, unless Rose is slotted at the 2 and Graham starts at the 3. Only time will answer that question but Graham has a chance to be a strong contributor right from the start. The defensive intensity he brings will help a lot but perimeter D means nothing when you?re being abused in the paint.
Pape Sow is not an offensive threat and might spend the season in the NBDL. If he does play in the NBA, he?s an athletic body who puts forth excellent effort to make up for his lack of offensive dominance. The Williams? that are already on Toronto will not make a significant contribution unless Alvin Williams manages to miraculously become healthy and Loren Woods is a backup who isn?t a huge threat (though he is a very nice 2nd or 3rd string player if he can stay out of Mitchell?s doghouse).
Who does that leave? Charlie V. The rookies will determine where Toronto goes this year. What?s the big question? You all know it, say it with me? ?What position is this guy going to play??
I expect to see him play minutes at both frontcourt positions and some spot minutes as a 3 as well. If he shows he?s got the handles, shot and defensive quicks to play the 3, he?ll be there more often (which is a significant possibility).
Still, the Raptors don?t have go-to scorers, good defense and their veteran experience is questionable at best (if you can?t tell, I?m not a huge fan of Rose as a player); this is a recipe for another nice draft pick and one more chance at a franchise player before the young talent starts to blossom and the Raptors need to make a trade to get a good draft pick. I expect them to nab a pick between 4 and 6 after this season and, again, to finish last in the division.
New York 33-49
New York? They aren?t going anywhere anytime soon, though they might squeeze into the first round. Knicks fans won?t much like that statement but they just aren?t designed for success. Too many cooks spoil the soup and it doesn?t help if several of them are undisciplined shot-chuckers who play poor defense.
New York?s first problem? Post play. Jerome James is not the answer, one playoff series means nothing (Jerome Moiso, anyone?). Channing Frye is a rookie and isn?t ready to make a serious contribution here. Down the road, that?s different but not right away. Second problem? Defense. The number of decent defenders on that team is very small. Next, size. They have a team filled with undersized players with only a few exceptions. Next, attitudes. Tim Thomas, Jerome James, Jamal Crawford? This is a volatile team. Never mind Penny and Mo Taylor. Their offense is not balanced as far as the types of players they have on their team, they have lots of gunners but no real shooters outside of Tim Thomas. They have one slasher (Crawford) who prefers to over-dribble and chuck shots and a couple other guys who can?t actually do much on offense (Trevor Ariza, Malik Rose).
I suppose the bright spot here is Stephon Marbury; he really improved the efficiency of his offense last year and continued to distribute the ball well. I still think he over-dribbles and tries to score too much but that?s a stylistic opinion. New York has obstacles to overcome within their team but they also have other hurdles: The playoff teams from last season were Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indiana, Miami, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Washington. Of those, at least five of them are going back to the playoffs, probably six and maybe even seven.
Boston won?t make the playoffs but Philly should and Washington might as long as Jamison and Arenas stay healthy for 75+ games (and if they get anything decent out of Caron Butler, then they are a really strong possibility). That really leaves only one or two spots for New York to contend for and they?ve got to deal with Cleveland and Orlando. Cleveland is better than New York and should take the spot that will be vacated by Boston. Between Orlando and New York? it really depends on how much Larry Brown can change the culture and style of the Knicks in one season and whether or not he can force the less insightful players on the Knicks like Crawford and James to play ?the right way? as he always attempts to do.
It would be folly to underestimate Brown but the Knicks are possessed of neither the talent nor the mentality to make it out of the first round. Call it a successful season if they make the playoffs, Trevor Ariza makes strides and Channing Frye looks decent.
