RealGM Analysis
Walking away from their game of chicken with the Knicks, the Rockets turned Tracy McGrady's expiring contract and the very good Carl Landry into Kevin Martin on Wednesday night.
By Thursday, the Rockets had also found a way to acquire multiple picks from New York for the simple favor of taking on Jared Jeffries' contract for 10-11, along with recent lottery pick Jordan Hill.
Martin is confounding to those who balk at his percentage from the floor (44.9% career and 39.7% this season) and don't realize how rare a high usage shooting guard with a career 60.0% True Shooting Percentage truly is. Martin is eighth all-time in career TS% amongst NBA players with at least 300 games of service and 6'7" or shorter. The only active player ahead of him is Steve Nash at 60.5%, while Ray Allen (57.4%), Paul Pierce (56.4%), Dwyane Wade (56.4%) and Kobe Bryant (55.7%) are in another strata below him in terms of this particular statistic.
Martin is owed a fairly reasonable $10.6M in 10-11, $11.5M in 11-12 and $12.4M in 12-13, but the caveat to that contract is his inability to stay healthy. Martin has sat out half of the current season with a wrist injury, and also missed significant time in 07-08 (groin) and 08-09 (ankle).
So Houston replaces one injury-plagued scoring machine with a younger model in Martin? Essentially, that is the case but the Rockets desperately needed to improve their scoring efficiency as they currently rank 19th in points scored per 100 possessions. Aaron Brooks and Trevor Ariza were being asked to score in difficult late game situations when they are in reality complementary third or fourth options.
The Rockets would have had some cap room this summer, but not nearly enough for anyone of impact and the uncertainty of Yao Ming's physical state would turn the landing spot into a sizable risk for anyone.
Now Houston has a primary perimeter scorer both for their playoff chances this season and for the next three seasons at least. They also have enough solid role players to compensate for his clear defensive weaknesses.
Jeffries can actually be a useful player in Houston's system, playing beside the defensively challenged Martin. They wouldn't want to take on his salary if not bribed in this fashion, but he won't be a complete waste the way we've seen in recent memory of players like Jerome James, Brian Cardinal and Darko Milicic.
As far as Hill, he is a big body with legitimate potential both offensively and defensively. I wrote a somewhat extended article on what the Knicks would be giving up in Hill earlier this week. The basic premise is that Hill won't ever be an All-Star but is a really effective rebounder, especially on the offensive glass and could develop a nice face-up game. That coupled with his size and athleticism should make him a reliable rotation player on a good team.
I don't like giving up Landry from Houston's perspective, but Martin, Hill and the picks sets up Daryl Morey quite nicely over the next few seasons regardless of what happens with the health of Yao and even Martin.
Grading the Deal for Houston: A
The future of Sacramento's backcourt was clearly going to belong to Tyreke Evans and this deal allows them to clear cap space for the summer while also acquiring Landry.
Landry is signed through the 2010-11 season for just $3M, making him probably the best non-rookie contract value in the NBA.
Like Martin, Landry is a statistician's wet dream, with an absolutely stellar career TS% of 62.8%. He is undersized for a power forward, but he maximizes his physicality with a clever array of moves in the paint.
As the NBA has scouted Landry more closely, his minutes have been extended and his usage has increased, he hasn't been quite as efficient with his percentage from the floor decreasing from 61.6% as a rookie to 57.4% last season and then 54.3% this season, but he has done a better job in drawing contact and getting to the line.
Landry's face-up can't compete to what he does in the paint, but nobody hitting at an 84.2% clip from the line is lacking as a shooter. It is a part of his game that inevitably evolves and becomes more frequently relied upon, as he cannot possibly get as many attempts at the rim as he does now.
His rebound rate of 16.4 during his rookie season an dropped all the way down to 11.6 this season, which is decidedly below average for a power forward, even an undersized one.
Defensively, Landry has some matchup problems against taller bigs who can simply shoot over him, though he has upped his presence as a shotblocker this season. He is a hard worker wherever he is on the floor, but defense clearly is a weakness and a vulnerability.
With a PER advantage of +4.7 against his counterparts at power forward, Landry is very rarely outplayed on an individual level.
Martin has been pursued by many teams leading up to the deadline, but it is difficult to envision a scenario that simultaneously offers this much cap room and a player of Landry's caliber.
Grading the Deal for Sacramento: A-
The Knicks haven't taken this kind of risk since Isiah Thomas dealt an unprotected first round pick and the right to swap picks to the Chicago Bulls for Eddy Curry.
There is a big difference this time around, however, as the gamble is for an opportunity to sign two of the following: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh. Those players are still a long ways away from New York, but Donnie Walsh has created a distinct shot at signing two of those players.
Signing someone like Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer, or re-signing David Lee with Johnson represents New York's parachute.
McGrady comes to New York attempting to prove he is not done physically and he will play for a new contract and will play the role of LeBron/Wade to audition how Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari can coincide with a wing scorer that has to have the ball in his hands.
He has over 27,000 minutes on his legs and has been fairly consistent decline over the past few seasons. McGrady has also played just 46 minutes since his microfracture surgery a season ago.
His numbers since 06-07 haven't justified his high usage, as he's been consistently stuck below a TS% of 50% and that was before his major knee surgery. Tim Grover has been working with McGrady and swears he's healthy and ready to play, but he looked like a different player altogether when we last saw him in his brief 09-10 cameo.
The Knicks also acquired Sergio Rodriguez, a player still in his early 20s who has played sparingly for the Kings this season, but has been incredibly efficient. The Knicks have been desperate for someone to play point guard other than Chris Duhon and he could potentially begin to overachieve in Mike D'Antoni's system, though his ceiling is likely as a nice backup.
New York could conceivably agree to a buyout with Curry as their next move to create more cap room, though they could also hold onto him in order to make a lopsided move to take on salary next February.
Grading the Deal for New York: A (with an asterisk)
The asterisk stays until July 2010 when this deal will be fairly judged for the Knicks.
I don't see a fair argument against why the Knicks shouldn't have made this move. Walsh's mission since taking over the Knicks has been to position for 2010 and creating two max slots puts them in the best possible position. Realistically, the Knicks didn't have enough to attract a true top-3 player in the NBA without the second max slot because they didn't have enough talented pieces.
It is a risky move to be certain, but the greater failure in not landing LeBron would be to have not taken this deal.
If the deal does work, the Knicks have basically traded Jordan Hill and a pick in the late 20s during the 2012 draft (no 2011 swap) for LeBron James and another superstar.
