RealGM Analysis
The Mavericks has oscillated in and out of contention ever since they made a gutsy trade for Nick Van Exel and Raef LaFrentz at the 2002 deadline. Given the happenstance of a career season from Tyson Chandler in his walk year and Dirk Nowitzki's continued individual response to the torment of the 2006 Finals and 2007 Playoffs, the Mavericks are back in the thickets of title territory.
The Mavericks have become a strong halfcourt team on both ends of the floor. Nowitzki is now an excellent post scorer and the Mavericks also defend the post well, primarily because of the difference Chandler has made. They also do an outstanding job in defending against opponents' ISO scorers and generally close out well on shooters. Somewhat amazingly given their history during Nowitzki's career, the Mavericks now rank ninth in defensive efficiency and are third in the Western Conference.
When the game gets quicker, the Mavericks have finally been chased down my age and are generally at their least effective both on offense and defense. This is why we have seen them drop all the way down to 25th in pace, in the vicinity of characteristically slow teams like Portland and Detroit.
For all of Jason Kidd's improvement as a perimeter shooter and impressive athleticism at his age, he has become a liability defensively. This is why the Mavericks can be attacked by teams with a superb point guard, both in transition and in the pick and roll. Dallas will again struggle to beat a team like San Antonio in a seven-game series, who can throw Tony Parker and George Hill at them, not to mention a matchup against Chris Paul. Dallas would strangely have better odds against the Lakers and Heat than they would against the Celtics and Spurs.
Desperation Meter: Nowitzki has another four or five seasons of All-Star level basketball remaining, so Dallas has a larger window than what we may have expected back in 2007. There are only so many opportunities and they are on life number seven of their metaphorical nine Dirk lives.
The Mavericks have enough assets to make a truly courageous game-changing trade that can shift the momentum their way. If it isn't a panic move that mortgages their chances in 2012 and 2013, Dallas should at least be in conversations to acquire the sidekick star that Nowitzki has been without. Preferably that player would be a point guard, or a wing capable of creating his own shot.
Potentially, that player is already on their roster in Rodrigue Beaubois, who is closing in on his return from injury.
I like the way Mark Cuban frequently used the word 'opportunistic' to describe their deadline activity. Since they already have enough to legitimately contend, there is no reason to be excessively desperate as they have in the past.
