1. Would you rather be a fan of Dayton (8-2, Kenpom #59) or Marquette (6-4, Kenpom #108)?

Despite the season-long profiles, this one is a bit of a no-brainer. Marquette struggled to start the season, but they were playing without a true big man on the roster. Since Luke Fischer became eligible in December, Fischer has been averaging 21 points and 8 boards per game. Fischer’s FG% is unsustainable (Fischer is 17 of 19 from the floor), but Marquette certainly feels like a team prepared to turn its season around now that it has a true post presence.

On the flip side, Dayton was forced to kick its two tallest players, Jalen Robinson and Devon Scott off the team this week, and with freshmen center Steve McElvene declared a partial qualifier in the preseason, the Flyers have no players over 6’6” on the active roster. The lack of size is eventually going to cause Dayton to fall behind Marquette in the rankings and the NCAA tournament projections.

2. Would you rather be a fan of Colorado St. (11-0, Kenpom #58) or Wyoming (10-2, Kenpom #54)?

If this match-up sounds like a no-brainer because of Colorado St.’s undefeated record, it shouldn’t be. Colorado St. may be receiving poll votes because they haven’t lost yet, but their profile is a little bit of fool’s gold. Four of their wins came by three points or less. The real issue for Colorado St. is that their defense has been far from perfect. A mid-level Denver team had a ridiculous 75% eFG% against the Rams this week. Colorado St. held on to win by a point, but eventually their lack of size in the paint and inability to get stops is going to lead to some losses to some lower division teams in the MWC.

Wyoming on the other hand, has a pair of road losses, at SMU, and at California by three points, neither of which will be embarrassing at the end of the year. Both teams own an impressive victory over Colorado. And the margin-of-victory numbers (Kenpom, Sagarin Predictor) think this is a toss-up.

3. Would you rather be a fan of Penn St. (11-1, Kenpom #92) or South Carolina (7-3, Kenpom #34)?

Both teams were picked near the cellars of their leagues. My preseason projection model liked both teams a little more than most experts because both teams had veteran rosters. Oddly despite three losses, the margin-of-victory numbers love South Carolina right now. That’s because South Carolina’s wins have all come by huge margins, particularly against Oklahoma St. and Clemson in recent weeks. Penn St., on the other hand is 7-0 in games decided by 6 points or less, and has snuck by some teams (Cornell, Duquesne, USC, Virginia Tech) that aren’t very good yet. I love DJ Newbill in close game situations. He is brilliant at getting to the line or getting a lay-up. But no team wins every close game.

I’d like to say that South Carolina’s better per-possession performance will eventually catch up and that the Gamecocks will earn enough victories in conference to show they are playing like a tournament team. I’d also like to say that South Carolina really is a better team since Laimonas Chatkevicius became a starter. But I’m worried about the small sample sizes. South Carolina has yet to perform well against quality teams away from home, and even if the margin-of-victory numbers look good, they haven’t proven anything yet.

South Carolina has almost no room for error at this point if they want to make an NCAA tournament run. On the other hand, if Penn St. finishes 8-10 in the Big Ten with some key quality wins in conference, this kind of non-conference profile would certainly make the committee look closely.

If the Big Ten was winning like the league was last year, I’d say Penn St. clearly had higher NCAA tournament odds. But it is worth noting that the SEC’s RPI is not inferior to the Big Ten’s RPI like in past seasons. While SEC teams have a few more non-conference losses, the SEC has succeeded in upgrading its non-conference strength of schedule. Surprisingly both the Big Ten and SEC may offer a similar number of chances for quality wins in conference play.

4. Would you rather be a fan of Ole Miss (7-3, Kenpom #93) or Oregon St. (8-3, Kenpom #120)?

These team evaluations have been focused on this season, but I bring this example up because it brings up the short-run vs long-run contrast with teams. Ole Miss has a pre-season all-conference player in Jarvis Summers, a host of potentially productive transfers led by Stefan Moody, and a senior LaDarius White, who has upped his ORtg from 91, 95, and 95, to 115 this season. There is no question that Ole Miss is the better team on paper.

And yet despite having a team with few freshman faces, Ole Miss has already lost three times at home to Charleston Southern, TCU, and Western Kentucky. That kind of performance is simply unacceptable for a bubble NCAA team. Andy Kennedy is in his 9^th season, but he has made the NCAA tournament only once. And you can’t help but feel like this season will end with yet another NIT trip and a new head coach next spring.

Oregon St. still has just eight scholarship players, and lost to Quinnipiac on Sunday. They are not a good team. And yet it’s hard not to appreciate what Wayne Tinkle has done so far. The successful mid-major coach has taken a bunch of role players and lightly recruited athletes, and been competitive against peer-level schools. I thought by now Oregon St. would have 6 of 7 losses. Instead, they beat Mississippi St. and DePaul and lost by two to Auburn on a neutral floor.  Wayne Tinkle is showing that against teams with similar talent limitations, he can coach his team to success. And that suggests that when Oregon St.’s talent is upgraded, real success may be possible. Oregon St. already has some nice recruits signed for next season, and as crazy as it may sound since Oregon St. probably won’t be NCAA tournament competitive until 2016-17, it is starting to feel like Oregon St. is better positioned in the long-run.  The Beavers may be further along in the rebuilding process.

5. Would you rather be a fan of SMU (8-3, Kenpom #32) or Michigan (6-5, Kenpom #75)?

Both teams were in the preseason Top 25 but quickly fell out. On the one hand, SMU has now won six in a row including a decisive win at Michigan, and Markus Kennedy is now eligible. SMU is really starting to feel like the American Conference’s best team.

On the other hand, the American is absolutely terrible this season. Even if SMU wins the league outright, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see SMU end up with an 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. Last year head coach Larry Brown complained that the American conference didn’t get enough respect from the committee. Well, this year that could easily happen again. Add in the fact that John Beilein’s teams have consistently performed better after February 1^st than in the early season, and you can at least make a case for Michigan.

But it would be a foolish case. The Wolverines are a mess right now. Offensively, they can’t score against a zone defense or create if they aren’t making perimeter jumpers. Defensively, they break down at key moments. And even if SMU doesn’t have the perfect  resume, the committee will recognize the importance of Markus Kennedy’s absence. SMU should win more games and earn national respect again soon.

6. Would you rather be a fan of Kentucky (12-0, Kenpom #1) or Duke (10-0, Kenpom #3)?

Kentucky’s defense seems impenetrable at this point. With a PG who is as good an on-ball defender as Tyler Ulis, with tall 6’6” guards like the Harrison Twins, with a deep wall of post players defending the basket, and with a player like Will Cauley-Stein who is 7 feet tall and also has the quickness to defend versatile scoring wings, Kentucky might be able to defend their way to a national title.

For a long time, the platoon system seemed like a concern, but even if Kentucky continues to use a version of it, with the loss of Alex Poythress, it seems certain that by the tournament that John Calipari will have a natural rotation where he plays his best players more minutes. It is impossible not to love what you see from the Wildcats.

But I tipped towards Duke during the Wisconsin win, and I’m still leaning towards the Blue Devils at this point in the season. It sure feels like a more natural situation to have a few alpha-dog players on a team and a few complimentary role players. When Duke needs a basket, you know the plan is to try to get the ball to Jahlil Okafor, you know that Tyus Jones has an uncanny ability to get lay-ups, and you know that veteran Quinn Cook is making fantastic decisions off or on-the ball. We still don’t really have a feel for which Kentucky player should take the key shot.

The tempo free stats say Duke’s defense is substantially improved from last year, but not quite in the Top 10 yet. But the sample size is so small that I’m not willing to draw any huge conclusions. Everything I have seen has been positive. First, Duke doesn’t seem to have any huge defensive liabilities on the perimeter like in past seasons. Second, Duke’s help defense has been much better. As impressive as Duke’s lights out shooting was earlier in the month at Wisconsin, I was more impressed that the help defense that denied the Badgers easy baskets.

Perhaps the best part of the debate is the hope that the teams will meet in the NCAA tournament. It may be December, but we are already salivating about the possibility of a Duke-Kentucky final.