RealGM Analysis
Much like small forward, power forward is another position that doesn’t have much depth in this draft but is strong at the very top, considering it has the two players with the highest upside in this draft, though everybody else has monster bust-ability potential.
LSU’s Ben Simmons is the sort of volume shot creator that teams rely on as their building block, while Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Dragan Bender has the potential to become the sort of player who can impact the game in almost every aspect.
Washington’s Marquese Chriss is a shot in the dark, possessing jaw dropping athleticism and the skeletons of a multi-dimensional skill-set as a scorer. But he doesn’t play all that hard all that often and his defense is undeveloped to the bones, bringing up memories of similarly built failures like Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph.
Marquette’s Henry Ellenson and Kentucky’s Skal Labissiere have the sort of massive holes to their games on defense that make it reasonable to ponder if what they bring to the table will be enough for them to become even rotation players. But since the draft is about investing for the future, teams will take them in the lottery and wait and see if their weaknesses develop or if they can at least be hidden within a team context.
Ben Simmons
In a vacuum, Simmons is the most talented player in the draft.
He possesses a very diverse combination of size and skill-set, standing at six-foot-10 with a 240-pound frame while moving and seeing the court as a perimeter player.
Despite his size, Simmons very obviously prefers running offense from the perimeter, having full view of the defense in front of him and creating out of dribble penetration.
Simmons is an above average scorer but not an exceptional one as of now. Though he’s only shown glimpses of being able to attack rim protection with explosiveness elevating out of one foot, his big frame invites a lot of contact in traffic (earning him 10.3 foul shots per 40 minutes last season) and he’s shown nice touch on non-dunk finishes against length at the basket (converting 75.2% of his 210 shots at the basket, via hoop-math).
But Simmons can’t shoot at all at this point of his development, which allows the opponent sag off a few feet in isolation or duck under screens in the pick-and-roll. He can eat up that space in a split-second when he makes his move but with his defender aware he only needs to worry about holding his ground foul line down, Simmons is limited in his ability to get by people.
He still managed to penetrate the lane without much trouble at the college level because of his long strides and ability to maintain his balance through contact, which constantly drew help even as he didn’t blow by his man that often and unlocked his remarkable passing on the move. Thanks to his vantage point, Simmons can see over defenders in traffic and has proven to have excellent court vision to take advantage of a collapsing defense – almost always looking to create an open three-point shot for a spot-up shooter.
There’s concern Simmons won’t be as successful causing that sort of chaos to get people open at the pro level, where the on-ball defenders are quicker, stronger and more properly instructed to prevent rotations and the weak-side defenders are lengthier and more instinctual. But he is the sort of passer who anticipates passing lanes a second ahead they come open and proved himself able to create a corner three-point shot without even needing to actually bend the defense, often whipping passes to those shooters at the edges as soon as he noticed an opponent easing his stance for a split-second or focusing a little too soon on taking an extra step inside to help crowd the interior on a potential dribble drive.
A couple of decades ago, there would be coaches – with the memory of Magic Johnson still fresh on their minds – who would have him play as a straight up point guard. A decade ago – in the Era of LeBron James, Lamar Odom and Boris Diaw, Simmons would start his career as a small forward. But in the smallball Era, Simmons will be the nominal power forward – with teams more generally aware that the proper way to fill a lineup is with at least all three perimeter players being able to hit a three-pointer off the catch.
And while playing Simmons as a point guard would offer the advantage of having him post up opposing point guards and inversing the offense, the best way of maximizing Simmons in this day and age really seems to be forcing a big guy to try getting low in a stance, out there in space and navigating a ball screen, which they are simply not used to doing yet.
The template would be the way Golden State used Draymond Green this season, with him initiating offense from the perimeter more; running 4-1 and 4-2 pick-and-rolls with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson screening for him, then popping to a general open space around the arc. When they played the Clippers midseason with Andrew Bogut out and Green started at center, poor DeAndre Jordan had no chance of making himself useful to contain these plays.
That could more easily be done if Simmons is a “power forward” because it suggests he’ll also be defending an opposing big, stationed close to the basket, which gives him easier access to the defensive glass. While his in-play effort on that end is suspect (more on that in a second), Simmons is an excellent defensive rebounder – collecting 27.7% amount of opponents’ misses last season, according to our stats database. From there, he can trigger outlet passes, speed up the court or jog it up and set the halfcourt offense.
If Luke Walton internalized most of the concepts he was exposed to coaching in Steve Kerr’s staff, Simmons’ best fit would be with the Lakers, as he is a more dynamic player than Green off the bounce and would have a version of Curry to play pick-and-roll with in D'Angelo Russell.
He’s likely to play for Brett Brown, though. It’s unclear how creative a coach Brown is at this point, because he’s never really been given the opportunity to show it. But even if Brown is mostly a follower of Gregg Popovich’s line of thought, adhering to more classic principles, Simmons should be very productive as well.
His passing skills could also be put into full use out of the short roll the way Tiago Splitter excelled at or from the elbows and the low post like Diaw, considering he’s a scoring threat diving all the way to the rim, hunting for his own shot with his back to the basket and in the offensive glass.
Simmons didn’t screen in the pick-and-roll much at LSU but when he did and was given the ball in condition to do something with it, he showed soft hands to catch the ball on the move and the ability to play above the rim as a target for lobs.
Simmons isn’t a particularly impressive post scorer, lacking power moves and a turnaround-fadeaway jumper at this point. But he has strength to establish enough of a position to work with in the block and get a decent look on turnarond hooks, with pretty good touch.
But whether he is on the ball from the perimeter and in the post or screening for the ball, one thing is definite: Simmons needs to be involved in the strong-side, due to his inability to shoot even off the catch at this point of his development. It’s even hard to tell how far from a passable shooter Simmons is because he went to extreme lengths not to take outside shots at LSU. Whichever team drafts him is probably assuming it will have to build his shot from scratch.
In that sense, the best way to hide his shooting would be actually playing him as a center, given he has the size for it. The problem with that option is there is another end to the court, where Simmons was very subpar in college.
He was very inept protecting the interior; often failing to provide adequate help in time and at times even avoiding stepping into the front of the rim to challenge a drive in order not to risk picking up a foul. Simmons was also soft defending in pick-and-roll, as he didn’t put a lot of effort into contesting mid-range jumpers.
It’s possible Simmons was coached to keep himself out of foul trouble or that he was simply a 19-year-old being selective with his effort once it was clear his team’s season wasn’t headed in the right direction.
But even if he had performed at peak effort, there would still be concerns over how impactful a player Simmons can ever really be on defense as a big due to his length. His seven-foot wingspan isn’t much in the context of his six-foot-10 height and he struggled to contest turnaround shots by true big men such as Henry Ellenson, Luke Fischer and DeMarcus Daniels in college.
Simmons should be able to offer switch-ability, though. All that fluidity moving in space he’s shown on offense should translate into an ability to develop into at least a passable individual defender in the perimeter if he puts in the effort, especially considering he’s shown flashes of being a more credible defender on the outside in the past – like in the game against North Florida.
Marquese Chriss
Chriss is one of the best athletes in the draft if not the very best one.
The owner of a six-foot-10, 233-pound frame, he combines that size with fluidity in space, quickness in tight areas, explosiveness off the ground and impressive leaping ability for someone that tall.
Thanks to that physical profile, Chriss excels in the athletic part of the game; he can sprint up the court in transition and play above the rim as a target for lobs in the pick-and-roll or out of the dunker spot. Showcasing nice touch on non-dunk finishes against length as well, Chriss converted 68.5% of his 146 shots at the rim last season – according to hoop-math.
He also possesses a nine-foot standing reach and second jump-ability to fight for tip-ins and 50-50 balls in the offensive glass, collecting 10.1% of Washington’s misses when he was on the floor last season – according to our stats database.
On the other end, his athletic prowess translates in his ability to block shots rotating in help-defense and, more importantly in this day and age, pick up smaller players on switches – including point guards.
But the reason why Chriss is expected to be drafted in the top five on Thursday regards combining those physical gifts with the flashes of a very appealing face-up game.
He hit 35% of his 60 three-point shots and 43.9% of his 132 mid-range jumpers, with a shooting stroke that makes you feel confident those percentages can hold up fine or even improve if he gets to play with better shot creators.
Chriss is mostly only a weak-side threat as a shooter at this point, as he was not put in the pick-and-pop a whole lot, but proved himself very capable of making an open shot from deep range. He elevates in balance and shows great rhythm in his release, with pretty impressive footwork and no moving parts.
That shooting also showcased itself in the post, where Chriss can not only hit jump-shots off step-jabs but also turnaround-fadeaway jumpers. He’s not a massive guy but didn’t have much trouble setting great position in the mid-post area and his footwork is really fluid, if not necessarily polished.
Chriss also showed the ability to take opposing big men off the bounce, not just in closeout situations but even in straight isolations off of catch-and-go’s, though he is only a north-and-south guy at this point.
The problems are on the other end, where Chriss is a massive negative at this point of his development.
He can make a difference in space when he’s engaged but generally doesn’t play very hard and struggles with the nuances of the game as well, fouling a ton – 6.5 times per 40 minutes.
His seven-foot wingspan isn’t much in the context of his six-foot-10 height and he compounds that issue by not playing with a lot of toughness in the post, something that also translates in his mediocrity in the defensive glass. Chriss is undisciplined with his box out responsibilities and doesn’t play with much energy, collecting just 12% of opponents’ misses when he was on the floor last season.
Dragan Bender
Much like Chriss, Bender also possesses a combination of size and skill that might be perfectly suited for the ‘perimeter-oriented, switch-heavy but with size” style of basketball that is the logical conclusion of the smallball revolution. He’s not as prolific an athlete as Chriss but seems to be more ahead in the development of his skill-set.
Bender has shown to be a decent open shot shooter, as that was his only role for Maccabi Tel Aviv last season. They didn’t even use him much screening for the ball, so it’s not particularly clear if he’s the sort of shooter who can be in the pick-and-pop. His release is a bit methodical and he doesn’t elevate much off the ground but has great length and his mechanics look clean up top, converting 33.8% of his 77 three-point shots last season – according to our stats database.
As a weak-side threat, Bender had opportunities to attack closeouts and flashed his excellent passing on the move, which is the other really appealing aspect in his set of skills. His height helps him see over the top of the defense in traffic and he’s shown remarkable court vision for someone his size spotting shooters rotating to open spaces around the perimeter.
Bender was given a few chances of running pick-and-roll from the perimeter with the Croatian National Team at the U18 European Championships in the summer of 2014, which was a remarkable sight to see, as he was already six-foot-11 at the time. He lacks the sort of quickness and dynamism going side-to-side to attack off the bounce to be a legit scoring threat unless the opponent just opens a straight-live drive to the basket for him but the goal was creating enough action for the defense to scramble, allowing Bender to pick them apart through his high vantage point with his passing skills.
That’s why Bender has the highest upside in this draft: the simple idea that a seven-foot-one person can be a multi-dimensional center on defense, who can protect the rim or pick up smaller players on switches, and then potentially draw the opposing center 25 feet away from the rim to guard in a way he’s not used to and run pick-and-roll with opposing perimeter defenders all stressed out because the rim protector is away from the basket and the guard or wing he is defending might cut to the basket or a have a catch-and-shoot created for him at any second.
But Bender is proven not to be that sort of player in a couple of these things yet, while he was not given much opportunity to show whether he is developing in others.
He was relied on to pick up wings on switches and did well against some NBA-caliber players like Alessandro Gentile and Mindaugas Kuzminskas in isolation. Bender’s proven able to bend his knees, get in a stance to get in a reasonably low stance, move laterally and keep pace. His seven-foot-two wingspan makes it extremely tough for an opponent to shoot over him off the bounce without creating a good deal of separation first. But it’s unclear how well he can do against better athletes.
It’s also unclear if his handle made progress or he’s developed any dribble moves since he was given a chance to run offense from the perimeter, as Maccabi had several ball-dominant point guards (Jordan, Farmar, Yogev Ohayon, Taylor Rochestie, Gal Mekel) who are obviously much better at running pick-and-roll than some teenage experiment and gave the team a better chance to win each game, which was the top goal for a big team.
And that priority of seeking wins, and lots of them, is why Bender ended up logging just 491 minutes last season. He was a little restricted in the Israeli league, due to rules that forced teams to have one of the young players active in games be domestic, but could not earn consistent minutes and a meaningful spot in the rotation due to his lack of strength and physicality at this point of his development.
Bender has a weak 216-pound frame in the context of his seven-foot-one height and struggles with every single aspect that involves toughness. He can make the proper rotations defending close to the rim but opponents are able to finish through his contact when he’s standing in front of the rim. He can’t hold his ground in the post and, more alarmingly, boxing out to help protect the defensive glass – collecting jut 16.1% of opponents’ misses last season, according to our stats database, which is a very underwhelming rate for a seven footer.
Those issues made him unplayable against a higher level of competition, as he logged just 10.5 minutes per game in seven Euroleague appearances and four minutes per game in three Eurocup appearances.
They also hurt him on offense, where Bender struggled to contain his balance through contact and rarely got all the way to the basket when he attacked a closeout. And he was hopeless trying to establish deep position in the block.
But despite the fact he hasn’t yet developed into something close to an NBA-caliber player yet, Bender will be drafted in the top 10 on Thursday because of his age, which puts things into a much more appealing context. As Nate Duncan smartly alluded to in a recent version of the Dunc’d On podcast, Bender has only rarely played against his own age group. Even in that 2014 U18 European Championships, Bender was only 16 and still a few months away from his 17th birthday. Therefore, all the glimpses of star role player potential he’s flashed have an added value to them.
Henry Ellenson
Ellenson is a hard guy to write about. He’s good. But he also sucks.
His skill-level is quite appealing.
Ellenson has a nice handle for a seven-footer, unable to run offense from the perimeter like Simmons and perfectly able to bring the ball up the court in jogging up the court in a slow break. He can also pass quite well facing the defense from the high post, help facilitating offense from the elbows or making a quick kick-out out of the short roll – assisting on 11% of Marquette’s scores when he was on the floor.
His outside shooting could also be an asset, despite the fact he hit just 28.8% of his 104 three-point shots last season. But his stroke looks pretty good and he converted 42.7% of 218 mid-range jumpers, particularly impressive in the low post; on face-up shots off jab-steps and turnaround-fadeaway jumpers. His release is quick and compact off the catch. He doesn’t get much elevation off the ground but doesn’t need it for a high release that is tough to contest due to his length.
Ellenson is also a volume rebounder thanks to his wide 242-pound frame. He’s attentive to his box out responsibilities and is a tough guy to move off his spot, collecting almost a quarter of opponents’ misses when he has on the floor.
The problem is Ellenson is a fairly poor athlete for NBA standards.
On offense, the threats of his shooting and passing open up some driving lanes for him to attack closeouts but he’s pretty slow off the bounce and doesn’t have any lift to attack the basket. That also makes him restricted scoring out of the pick-and-roll or grabbing offensive rebounds against opponents who can keep him from establishing inside position, with his average seven-foot-two wingspan limiting his ability to rebound outside his position.
On defense, Ellenson has no agility to guard high in the perimeter and is a massive liability against the pick-and-roll, not just picking up smaller players on switches but on standard coverages like hedging and showing hard. Mike Schmitz made a good point on David Locke’s podcast of how Ellenson used to be a heavy person, shed a lot of weight over the last couple of years but still has plodding feet.
That inability to defend in space suggests Ellenson should be played more as a center, dropping back on pick-and-rolls to prioritize rim protection but he’s also subpar as a presence close to the basket, unable to play above the rim as a shot blocking threat coming off the weak-side and lacking toughness to defend the opponents’ most credible post threat.
Skal Labissiere
Much like Bender, Labissiere also struggled with every aspect of the game that involved physicality last season. John Calipari tried to force him to develop into the sort of player Karl-Anthony Towns, Jr. did the year before but Labissiere has a much weaker 216-pound frame in the context of his seven-foot height, unable to establish deep position to get the ball and then bully his way into a decent look with his back to the basket.
But more a lot more corcerning was his inability to hold ground in the post and box out to protect the defensive glass, often getting pushed out of the way. Labissiere collected just x% of opponents’ misses last season, according to our stats database – an alarming mark for someone his size.
With those sorts of weaknesses, it’s impossible to imagine a coach feeling comfortable enough to have Labissiere playing as a center in an NBA game right now, which pushes him down a position and means he has to play power forward. But Labissiere has never really proven to have the sort of skills the league is looking for in players that position these days; hit outside shots, attack a closeout, pass on the move, switch screens.
But while the issue of strength hasn’t taken much of shine out of Bender’s NBA prospects, it has hurt Labissiere’s stock (he was projected by many as a potential number one pick entering Kentucky) quite a bit because he’s already 20 years old and doesn’t have a long track record playing organized basketball at the highest level of competition within his age group.
He should still become a lottery pick, though. Maybe even top 10. That’s because of his athleticism and the flashes he’s shown of a jump-shot. Labissiere is projected as the perfect scoring big for this Era, as he can be put in the pick-and-roll and play above the rim as a target for lobs or spot up as a weak-side threat, potentially from three-point range or for sure in the dunker spot. Those were things he was not given much opportunity to do at Kentucky but figure to be the strong points of his skill-set.
Defensively, Labissiere uses his athleticism to block shots coming off the weak-side, leaping off the ground in a pinch and possessing a nine-foot standing reach to tap the ball at a high point. And he moves so fluidly in space that there can be hope he develops into an asset to pick up smaller players on switches down the line, but that’s unclear right now.
It seems evident that whichever team drafts Labissiere should probably think of him in terms of Bismack Biyombo’s timeline, a guy who is just now – in his second contract – developing into an impact player. The tough question is what sort of value proposition he’ll be then and whether that’s enough to worth the wait.
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