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The Eliminated (Eastern Conference Teams)

A winning record to reach the playoffs wasn't necessary this season in the Eastern Conference, which demonstrates how far the below list of eliminated temas are from becoming contenders without addressing significant issues this offseason.

Orlando Magic

The Big Questions:

  1. Will they get the No. 1 overall pick?
  2. Can a frontcourt with a core of Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson and Maurice Harkless compete in the East long-term?
  3. Can they find another team who will give them an asset for Al Harrington’s partially guaranteed deal?

Notable Free Agents: None

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Round and Golden State’s 2nd Round (own 2nd round held by Cleveland)

The Lay of the Land: The Magic have a fascinating group of young players and a serious chance to add more assets. With a tie for the most ping pong balls, Orlando should be able to bring another high-level talent into the fold. While point guard stands out as the biggest long-term need, the team would be wise to take the best player available since they still need depth and quality at every position. Another interesting piece for Orlando this summer comes in the form of Al Harrington- because his contract is only half-guaranteed for the final two seasons of the deal, the creative Magic front office could use that to try and gain an asset from another team in exchange for the cap savings of a contract that counts on the book for more than the payment amount until he is cut. Considering Orlando already has a ton of money on the books for 13-14, it could even be a way for them to reduce their burden for the following years.

Charlotte Bobcats

The Big Questions:

  1. Will they get the No. 1 pick?
  2. When should they use the amnesty on Tyrus Thomas?
  3. How much are they willing to pay to keep Gerald Henderson?

Notable Free Agents: Gerald Henderson (Restricted) and Byron Mullins (Restricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Round, No 2nd Round (held by OKC)

The Lay of the Land: While the Bobcats have two potential lottery picks coming from Detroit and Portland in future years, in all likelihood neither of those will make it to Charlotte this season. That could be for the best considering how weak this class is on the lower end of the lottery. That said, the choice to take on Ben Gordon’s extra year to get a pick from Detroit means that Charlotte will have some money this summer but not enough to go after elite talent. The Bobcats do still have their amnesty available and have a perfect target in Tyrus Thomas, though they could still see some potential value in him since they would still need to pay him even if he comes off the books from a salary cap perspective. I’m guessing they wait one more year to push him off on an ice float though doing it now would be fine.

Beyond that, both Byron Mullens and Gerald Henderson will be restricted free agents this summer. The team needs to draw a line in the sand on long-term contracts for both players since while each has value they are not strong enough players to warrant tying up cap space when the team can make big moves in 2014 and beyond. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Big Questions:

  1. Do they want to use their cap space this summer or wait until 2014?
  2. Will there be a good market for Anderson Varejao? Would the Cavaliers want to trade him now?
  3. How can they best use their two picks in each round?

Notable Free Agents: Wayne Ellington (Restricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Round, Miami’s 1st Round, Own 2nd Round, Orlando’s 2nd Round

The Lay of the Land: Unlike pretty much every other team on this list, Cleveland might have more resources than they can deal with effectively. Carrying four picks in the first 35 on top of four other players on their rookie deals might be a little too much to handle. Fortunately, the team can combine assets and try to find the right fits at varying positions and roles.

The figure looming over the entire off-season has to be LeBron James. Considering how much trouble the Cavaliers have had acquiring high-level talent outside of the draft, it would make sense for them to try and woo the high-end guys in this class and then save most of their flexibility for the chance of LeBron James wanting to return home. Since Kyrie Irving still has another two years on his deal and then would have a reasonable cap hold, the Cavs would be wise to take on some short-term money and get a pick or two if the elite members of the 2013 free agent class choose to go elsewhere.

Washington Wizards

The Big Questions:

  1. What extension will the team offer John Wall and would he accept less than the max at this point?
  2. Will either Emeka Okafor or Trevor Ariza decline their lucrative options for next season?
  3. Can the team bring back Martell Webster on a reasonable deal?
  4. Would any team be interested in giving up a long term expensive talent for an expiring contract?

Notable Free Agents: Emeka Okafor (ETO), Trevor Ariza (Player Option), Martell Webster (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Round, Own 2nd Round, New York Knicks’ 2nd Round

The Lay of the Land: The largest consequence of the trade with New Orleans last year was the reduction in salary flexibility for the 13-14 season assuming Okafor and Ariza pick up their options. Either one could choose to go after a longer-term deal though neither should expect to get more per season than what Washington is committed to paying them on their current deals. The challenge for the Wizards would be trying to make the right deal for either should they choose to go for a longer contract since they have value but the team needs the flexibility because next year is the last with John Wall on his rookie deal.

I fully expect the Wizards to offer Wall a generous deal that falls short of the max (more than Curry, Holiday, or Lawson signed for last summer) and have absolutely no idea whether he will take it or not. Considering the Wizards can and should match any four-year deal he could get in restricted free agency in 2014, they have plenty of reason to wait to see if Wall can build on his strong second half.

Detroit Pistons

The Big Questions:

  1. Can Joe Dumars use his newfound cap space responsibly?
  2. Will Greg Monroe and the Pistons come to an agreement on an extension?
  3. What will Andre Drummond’s role be next season?

Notable Free Agents: Jose Calderon (Unrestricted), Jason Maxiell (Unrestricted), and Corey Maggette (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Round, Own 2nd Round, Clippers’ 2nd Round (possibly)

The Lay of the Land: After the Tayshaun Prince trade, the Pistons actually have a remarkable amount of cap room this summer. That number will only increase when the team finally amnesties Charlie Villanueva and clears his $8.58 million off the ledger. Without a ton of money committed for 2014, Joe Dumars can afford to be patient with the space they have and go after all sorts of options this summer from signing a free agent like Andre Iguodala or taking on a long-term deal like the Raptors did with Rudy Gay in the aforementioned trade.

The other big potential decision for Detroit centers on Greg Monroe. He is clearly a good player but we still need to see how he can play with franchise building block Andre Drummond. The Pistons should make a low but reasonable offer to Monroe this year and spend most of next season trying to figure out if he can play with Drummond for years to come, ideally making a decision before the trade deadline since Monroe would have value if the team chooses to go in another direction.

Toronto Raptors

The Big Questions:

  1. Can they get meaningfully better this summer?
  2. Will they use the amnesty on Linas Kleiza?
  3. Where will Terrance Ross fit in with Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan?

Notable Free Agents: None

2013 Draft Picks Held: None (1st Rounder to OKC via Houston, 2nd Rounder to Memphis)

The Lay of the Land: By making the trade for Rudy Gay, the Raptors committed to their current group of players for 13-14. Using the amnesty provision on Andrea Bargnani or Linas Kleiza would not alleviate the cap limitations though it could affect how tightly they push against the luxury tax and the apron. The Raptors will need to add a backup PG and likely one more swingman in order to complete their team. 

Philadelphia 76ers

The Big Questions:

  1. What the heck do they do with Andrew Bynum?
  2. What the heck do they do with Evan Turner?
  3. Can they find swingmen that make sense long-term with Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young?

Notable Free Agents: Andrew Bynum (Unrestricted), Nick Young (Unrestricted), and Dorrell Wright (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder, New Orleans’ 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: After all of the moves that the Sixers’ front office has made over the past 12 months, the only real constant they have moving forward is Jrue Holiday. They have long-term money committed to both Thaddeus Young and Jason Richardson but either can move around in the rotation based on who else the team has in future seasons.

While Andrew Bynum looms largest over this summer, the three-pronged choice for Evan Turner might actually affect the team more directly since they have so much more power over the decision. Turner is eligible for an extension and still has value as a trade asset, so the front office needs to decide whether they want to do one of those options or just hold onto him another year and punt the decision on both keeping him and the extension until the deadline or next summer.

2013 Amnesty Primer

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0,” we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list.

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only person left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That seems unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to dollar figures over $5 million for 2013-14 this past offseason, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets- Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011)

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Tyrus until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the TaJ Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers- Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011)

Dallas Mavericks- Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets- Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors- Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011)

Houston Rockets- Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers- Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011)

Los Angeles Clippers- Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of Metta’s onerous deal seems like the best play. The addition of Chris Duhon makes Steve Blake a slightly greater possibility, but he still appears moveable via trade and provides fair value to the team.

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Zach Randolph in 2014. Memphis will eventually need to make a decision on what to do with their core. Having Z-Bo, Gay, Conley, and Marc Gasol on the books through 2014-15 likely means that the team has a choice to make in 2014 unless either Randolph or Gay makes it for them by declining their player option. My gut says that new ownership will cut bait on an expensive $16.5 million final year option for Randolph.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8M final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. With Beno Udrih expiring at the end of this season, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not Monta Ellis opts out, look for him to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room.

Minnesota Timberwolves- Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks- Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation, but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would be a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic- Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011)

Philadelphia 76ers- Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns- Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers- Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1M) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 off-season when Tyreke Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. Interestingly, that low buyout could also make Garcia the choice if management sees the talent disparity between the two as high enough to warrant the switch.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-14 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Ed Davis

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards- Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

What The New Season Means For Non-Title Contenders

Much of the discussion around the NBA has centered around the teams at the top of the league, but their stories, one way or the other, won’t be finished until April, May and June. The regular season, in contrast, is about the other 27 franchises, the ones whose seasons won’t be judged as failures if they aren’t hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of them. And a year after one of the worst regular seasons in recent memory, this season is already shaping up to be far more compelling for almost every one of them.

Thanks to the lockout, a compressed 66-game schedule forced teams to play stretches of three games in three nights and five games in seven nights last year. The basic tenet of competitive basketball, the importance of winning games, was often compromised, as older teams worried about avoiding injuries while younger teams daydreamed about Anthony Davis.

Nor was the lockout’s damage confined to just the schedule. Many of the top prospects in college basketball opted to stay in school rather than risk the uncertainty of being stuck in limbo and possibly losing an entire season of development. As a result, the 2011 draft was one of the weakest in the last decade.

Take a look at the previous lottery: outside of No. 1 overall pick Kyrie Irving, are there any other future All-Stars in it? Derrick Williams is already on the trading block by the Wolves, while Cleveland fans have been complaining about Tristan Thompson since the moment he was drafted. However, none of the collegiate players taken after him -- Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Jimmer Thompson, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, Markieff Morris and Marcus Morris -- has the looks of a future star written on them either.

If another player from that lottery become an elite contributor, it will probably come from the ranks of the international big men -- Bismack Biyombo, Enes Kanter, Jonas Valanciunas and Jan Vesely. Valanciunas stayed in Lithuania last season, while the other three, still teenagers, struggled mightily to adapt to the speed of the game as well as an immense cultural transition to the United States. All four are still many years away from reaching their potential, if they ever do.

A rebuilding franchise is essentially selling hope for the future, that while wins are hard to come by in the present, developing young talent will pay off down the road. Unfortunately, with so few talented rookies in the NBA last season, there was precious little hope to go around.

What made the Bobcats so depressing last season wasn’t their 7-59 record, it was that there was no guarantee that all the losing was making any difference. The final verdict on Walker and Biyombo is far from settled, but given the obvious holes in their games coming into the draft, there’s little chance they would have been taken so high in a normal year. This season, if Charlotte is on the schedule, season ticket holders can at least look forward to watching No. 2 overall pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who has a very intriguing combination of size, athleticism and skill at 6’7 230.

The story is the same throughout the NBA. The Raptors, after plummeting to the depths of the league without Chris Bosh, now have an intriguing young PG (Kyle Lowry), SG (Terrence Ross) and C (Valanciunas). The Cavs brought in a talented young SG (Dion Waiters) to complement their franchise PG, as did the Wizards (Brad Beal). The Pistons are as woeful as ever, but how can their fans not be at least intrigued by the Andre Drummond Experiment? The Hornets, who were racing to lose as many games as possible last season, now have Anthony Davis, if not Eric Gordon.

The only two franchises in really bad shape in terms of future assets, the Magic and the Suns, are also the ones who most recently lost a franchise player. Even Orlando has two intriguing young big men (Nikola Vucevic and Andrew Nicholson) while Phoenix has a starting-caliber PG (Goran Dragic) and a forward theoretically capable of shooting them into any game (Michael Beasley). Neither situation is as dire as the one Toronto and Charlotte found themselves in over the last two years.

Overall, I had over a dozen prospects rated as lottery-caliber in the 2012 draft. In 2011? Three (Irving, Valanciunas and Kanter). Talent comes into the NBA in waves; over the last decade, the only draft classes I would rate above 2012 are 2003 and 2008.  Of course, not all of these prospects will develop, but even a poorly run franchise has a chance of backing their way into talent when so many good players are on the board.

One of the more popular phrases used during the lockout was “nuclear winter”. If we continue the analogy, the 2012-13 season is the following spring. The Heat, the Lakers and the Thunder may be on top of the NBA for now, but there’s hope in nearly every city that their franchise could be the next Oklahoma City.

If you look at what has happened in the NFL and the NHL this year or just follow the recent history of the NBA’s owners, it would appear that, for the indefinite future, lockouts are here to stay. However, as ugly as that undeniably sounds, never forget that no winter, not even a nuclear one, can lost forever. Spring will always come, in basketball as in life.

Central Division Preview

The Pacers enter 12-13 as the favorites in the Central Division, while the Bulls, Bucks, Cavaliers and Pistons will likely be in transitional seasons.

Great Drafts, Bad Drafts And All Drafts In-Between

Whle the Pistons, Blazers, Bobcats, Nets, Thunder and Bulls headline the 'Great Drafts', the caboose of 'Bad Drafts' is comprised of the Cavaliers, Suns, Bucks, Wolves, Heat and Knicks.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 4.0 (Draft-Day Edition)

The Andre Drummond/Perry Jones effect on this draft before we make sense of picks seven through 30 just hours before a flood of draft-day trades shreds every mock.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 3.0

The 2012 NBA Draft is a week away and nothing is certain beyond Anthony Davis going to the Hornets with the first overall pick even though several scenarios are beginning to crystalize.

How To Identify Prospects Likely To Over/Under-Achieve

There are two core reasons why players outperform their pre-draft expectations, while there are two main paths for prospects to underachieve.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 2.0 (Post-Lottery Edition)

Anthony Davis will become a member of the Hornets, but the draft is extremely fluid behind him with teams needing several weeks to sort through their unusual number of options even to the Bobcats at number two.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 1.0 (Pre-Lottery Edition)

While every team in the lottery can bring their Anthony Davis jersey if they win the first overall pick, the gap between Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Andre Drummond is extremely narrow for me and highly intriguing.

A Statistical Breakdown Of The Compressed Schedule

There was great concern about how teams would struggle with so many games in so little time, but the numbers indicate that they fared better than expected. Teams averaged a .547 winning percentage in the third game of consecutive days.

2012 Amnesty 2.0 Primer

As we move forward into the 2012 offseason with “Amnesty 2.0", here is a team-by-team look at which players are eligible for amnesty and identify the reasonable candidates.

The Skyrocketing Value Of Draft Picks

The value of late first round picks has never been higher, as the Warriors, Cavaliers and Rockets all paid premium prices at the deadline for picks that will be in the 20s. Here is why we saw this trend materializing with the new CBA.

Goodbye Veterans

Roster management is a zero-sum game, and for every spot claimed by a young player, a veteran has to give way. Here are some notable names not on an NBA roster as the 11-12 season gets underway.

Colleges On NBA Rosters

Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, Texas, Kansas, North Carolina, UConn, Florida and Arizona each begin the 11-12 NBA season with 10 or more players on NBA rosters.

Post-Free Agency Power Rankings

After a whirlwind free agency period, the balance of power in the NBA looks a lot different than it did less than a month ago, with the Thunder, Heat, Bulls, Knicks and Mavericks looking like the legitimate 2012 contenders.

Retaining Superstars

Because the NBA system won’t allow Dwight Howard to benefit financially from all the extra money he would generate by staying, he will likely be traded at some point in the next year while Orlando will be left to fill a publicly funded arena with a mediocre team.

Pre-Free Agency Power Rankings

The NBA's most rapid free agency period is nearly upon us. Here are RealGM's Power Rankings going into an important, free-for-all offseason.

Jonas Emerging

Jonas Valanciunas has been a boy amongst men in Euroleague, but in the U19 we began to see glimpses of why the Raptors may have the steal of the 2011 NBA Draft on their hands.

The NBA, NFL And Parity

Not only would parity not be beneficial for the NBA, it’s not even the primary driver of the NFL’s popularity.

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