Not much has gone right for Dwight Howard since he first demanded to be traded by the Orlando Magic. When this process began, he was widely considered the best big man of his generation. Two years later, the endless speculation about his future has left his reputation in tatters. The scrutiny was his fault, but the devastating back injury that left him a shell of himself was not. Now, with the worst of his recovery behind him, the biggest decision of his career looms ahead. The contract Howard signs this summer will take him through the end of his prime years. This time, he has no one to blame but himself.

When he came to the Los Angeles Lakers, the drama was supposed to end. He would be the next in a long line of Lakers' big men, the centerpiece of a championship organization for the rest of his career. Instead, one by one, the stars he was supposed to play with began going down. Next season, Steve Nash will be 39, Kobe Bryant will be 35 and Pau Gasol will be 33. They’re unlikely to get healthier as they get older. To keep Dwight in town, the Lakers will have to sell him on a vision for 2014 and beyond. As a result, if championships are his goal, the Houston Rockets are the safer bet.

Of the teams lining up to make a run at Dwight this summer, Houston is the one who should scare the Lakers. The Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks have worked furiously to clear cap space, but in the process, they’ve left their teams without the pieces necessary to lure a star in the first place. The Mavericks had a 41-41 record this season and their best players are all over 34. The Hawks, in theory, could sign Howard and Chris Paul, but all signs point to Paul re-signing with the Clippers. There certainly wouldn’t be Cliff Paul ads all over TV if he was losing in the first round in Atlanta.

If Dwight goes to the Rockets, everything would already be in place. Rather than playing with aging stars at the tail end of their careers, he would be joining one of the youngest and most exciting cores in the NBA. Houston, meanwhile, is becoming a model organization. They have an aggressive front office who can find talent anywhere in the world and a coaching staff willing to think outside the box. On the court, they operate by many of the same principles used by Stan Van Gundy with the Magic, with an offense revolving around spacing the floor and moving the basketball.

Most importantly, they have James Harden. While many doubted whether he was a max player, he established himself as one of the NBA’s best this season. Still only 23, the bearded wonder averaged 26 points, six assists and five rebounds a game on 44/37/85 shooting. Harden is the rare young player who relies more on savvy and feel than pure athleticism; he should be a lock for the All-Star Game for the next decade. An unselfish superstar who enjoys giving up the basketball, Harden would be an ideal pick-and-roll partner for Dwight, getting him 3-5 easy baskets a game rolling to the rim.

The supporting cast is in place too. By the end of their first round series with the Thunder, the Rockets were starting Harden, Chandler Parsons, Patrick Beverley and Carlos Delfino around Omer Asik. Insert Dwight for Asik and that is a serious team. Delfino’s $3 million team option for next season would have to be declined to clear cap space, but Beverley and Parsons are both locked into outrageously team-friendly contracts until at least 2015. The Rockets' core would make Dwight’s life easier, not more difficult. After missing the second round for three straight seasons, there’s something to be said for that.

Only a few tweaks would be necessary to build an elite team. A power forward capable of defending on the low block and stretching the floor out the three-point line would be ideal, but a marginal defensive 4 with an 18-foot jumper would suffice. Then a 3-and-D wing, a backup big man and a second ball-handler to fill out the bench. It’s hard to say exactly how Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, Greg Smith, Thomas Robinson, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas and Royce White would fit in with the new plan, but all have enough value on the trade market to be flipped for usable pieces.

And while Houston would be tinkering around the edges, the Lakers would be undergoing a wholesale renovation. How much can you count on Nash, given how fragile he has become? Can Kobe make it back from an Achilles injury at 100 percent? If he does lose a step, will anyone tell him he needs to become a secondary player? Does Mike D’Antoni have the backing of the organization in the event of a power struggle? For that matter, can D’Antoni even build an offense that incorporates Dwight and Pau’s talents? Why am I asking these questions like we don’t already know the answer to most of them?

With so many questions about their top players and absolutely no room to maneuver under the salary cap, the Lakers won’t be in a position to improve until 2014. At that point, Dwight and Nash would be the only significant contracts on the books and they would have the freedom to make any number of moves. But while Los Angeles is a proven attraction in the free agent market, there’s no way to know what players will be available after next season. A number of big names could conceivably be in play, but as Dwight knows full-well, a lot can change in that much time.

In essence, while Mitch Kupchak can talk to Dwight about the labor pains, Daryl Morey can show him the baby. As Mark Cuban found out last summer, free agents value certainty more than “financial flexibility”. It’s easy for a GM to say they will improve the team down the road; it’s much harder to actually do it. That’s why so many Team USA players let their contracts lapse in the summer of 2010. If they were all free at the same time, they could lock themselves in a good situation without needing a front office to do much heavy lifting. From the players perspective, 99 percent of them haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt.

Of course, there’s more to Dwight’s decision than just basketball. Houston is a big market, but it doesn’t have the glamour or the weather of Los Angeles. The Lakers can offer him a fifth year and an extra $30 million and they will always be the most attractive destination for any player looking to build his brand. However, winning is the only thing that will fix Dwight’s brand now. If he leaves, he’ll be blasted for being disloyal, but if he stays and the team doesn’t improve, the knives will really come out. Money is money, but Dwight’s going to have to take less to win anyway. That’s what everyone in Miami did.

If Jerry Buss and Phil Jackson were the ones making the pitch to stay, a rebuilding year would be easier to swallow. Morey and Kevin McHale, in contrast, can pitch never rebuilding again. As Dwight ages out of his prime, Harden will just be entering his. In 2020, when Dwight is 35, Harden will be 31; Rockets versus Thunder could be the Spurs versus Mavericks of this decade. The Lakers might be able to find a star in 2014 or 2015, but he’ll probably be closer to Dwight’s age, shortening the window to win significantly. Things might work out there, but after the last two years, can Dwight risk turning down a sure thing?

These eight teams extended their seasons with a first round playoff series, but their offseason begin sooner than they were hoping following their elimination.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Big Questions:

- Which of their free agent guards do the Bucks want to bring back?

- Which of their free agent guards will give them the best chance to re-sign him?

- How much more do they need to add to a big man rotation with Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson?

Notable Free Agents:  Brandon Jennings (Restricted), Monta Ellis (Player Option), JJ Redick (Unrestricted), Samuel Dalembert (Unrestricted), and Mike Dunleavy (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Having all three main guards in varying levels of free agency puts the Bucks in a strange situation. They have the ability to match with Brandon Jennings, but have to deal with a pure open market for both JJ Redick and Monta Ellis assuming the latter opts out.

I fully expect Jennings to either get a big offer or even sign the one-year tender and have zero idea whether Milwaukee would match even a near-max offer sheet. While Jennings clearly has plenty of talent, it feels like a hard argument to make that he can be the best player on a team that can advance at least one round in the playoffs. Jennings can be a key part of a great team, but likely not as the primary building block. Similarly, Redick and Ellis profile perfectly as players who will get overpaid if money is their primary objective in free agency. I could easily see Redick taking less to go to the right place and Ellis needs to go to an organization that values him and makes sense for his skills long-term. Since we do not know what either wants in their next destination, it feels like a shot in the dark to predict where they end up.

Beyond the guards, I love the core of Sanders, Ilyasova, and Henson particularly considering they all have at least one more season on their current deal. The looming extension for Most Improved candidate SANDERS! puts Milwaukee in a strange situation in terms of future cap space since he will get a meaningful pay raise and there are so many other unknowns in the franchise.

Boston Celtics

The Big Questions:

- How much longer does Kevin Garnett want to play?

- Will we see a full strength Jared Sullinger for most of 2013-14?

- Can Fab Melo become a rotation player for next season?

Notable Free Agents: None

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (traded 2nd Rounder to Portland)

The Lay of the Land: With so much money committed to their existing roster, Boston would have to make trades in order to look substantially different next season. The addition of Rajon Rondo at some point will give their depth a boost but the biggest lingering question is how much longer Garnett wants to play. While we have the same question about Paul Pierce, it would be awfully hard for this team to make much noise without Garnett until they get a talent infusion because of how their talent is structured.

Fortunately, Boston has a compelling group of young-ish players that can make this team much deeper if they are healthy and improve. Players like Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger can combine with Jordan Crawford and Avery Bradley to make teams sweat and give the elder statesmen some much-needed support. We will just have to see if they can deliver, especially before Rondo returns.

Atlanta Hawks

The Big Questions:

- Can they figure out a way to get Dwight Howard?

- Should they give Josh Smith the contract some team will be dumb enough to offer him?

- Will Jeff Teague get a surprising offer from Atlanta or anyone else?

Notable Free Agents: Josh Smith (Unrestricted), Jeff Teague (Restricted), Ivan Johnson (Unrestricted), Devin Harris (Unrestricted), Kyle Korver (Unrestricted), and Zaza Pachulia (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Houston’s 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder, Houston’s 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Despite having Al Horford and Louis Williams on the books long-term, Atlanta may have the potential for the most major turnover in the entire league. Even though Dwight Howard did not look like himself this year and we have to have some trepidation that the new normal for him will be lower than it was before his back injury, he would be a franchise-changing addition. Assuming he ends up elsewhere, the Hawks have tough decisions with both Josh Smith and Jeff Teague. Each has talent and can be a nice player on a good team but could also be offered far too much to make them worth keeping. Since Horford is a good player on a fair contract, Atlanta can be patient if the market gets too crazy on their free agents.

Atlanta did a nice job playing the RFA market to get Josh Smith on his current deal, but it feels unlikely that they will be able to repeat that success with Teague. Utah in particular could end up with cap space and a glaring need at the position that Jeff can use to leverage a nice offer. On Smoove, we just have to find out if any team is dumb enough to offer him the money he wants.

Brooklyn Nets

The Big Questions:

- Can they find a taker for Kris Humphries’ soon to be expiring contract?

- Will Andray Blatche take a pay cut to stay in Brooklyn?

- Will CJ Watson pick up his player option?

Notable Free Agents: Andray Blatche (Unrestricted) and CJ Watson (Player Option)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder traded to Minnesota)

The Lay of the Land: With the huge amount of money the Nets spent last offseaosn to build their team, this one will be one built on smaller moves that could still have a major effect on the team’s ceiling. Even though Kris Humphries is overpaid and plays a non-pivotal position, we could see a team take him to shed a longer-term deal because of the quality free agent class in 2014 or the huge luxury tax consequences of the repeater tax. Assuming Prokorov is willing to foot the huge bill, adding another starter to this team would be a gigantic boon for their potential to be a factor in the East for years to come.

On the depth side, both CJ Watson and Andray Blatche played last season on minimum salaries and have a chance to get paid more elsewhere. While the team has Tyshawn Taylor as a potential Watson replacement, no one stands out as a good fit to get Blatche’s role should he head for greener pastures. His statements seem to indicate a willingness to stick it out with Brooklyn, but we will have to see if that turns out to be the case when the money is on the table.

Houston Rockets

The Big Questions:

- Can they get another max talent to join the team?

- If not, do they keep their cap space for 2014 or improve the team now?

- Even without getting a better talent at the position, would the team move Jeremy Lin for a reasonable offer?

Notable Free Agents: Francisco Garcia (Team Option)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Phoenix’s 2nd Rounder (Own 1st and 2nd Rounders held by Atlanta)

The Lay of the Land: Houston has 15 players under contract for next season and still has plenty of cap space to make a major impact. Furthermore, each and every player they have signed presently has a contract that makes them more of an asset than a liability. That kind of flexibility means Daryl Morey could make some unbalanced trades in terms of salary, talent or both. Unfortunately, the five dimes for a dollar trades are some of the hardest to make in the entire league because the exchange rate for elite talent is often much higher than that.

On top of everything else, the Rockets' front office can elect to roll over their money to next summer by either standing largely pat or by using their space to pick up assets from teams looking to get under the cap or tax for next year. With so many resources and an insane amount of flexibility, now should be the time for Houston to move up a few notches in the Western Conference pecking order.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Big Questions:

- Will Dwight Howard re-sign?

- Will Metta World Peace take a pay cut to stay on the team?

- Can they retain Earl Clark?

Notable Free Agents: Dwight Howard (Unrestricted), Earl Clark (Unrestricted), Devin Ebanks (Unrestricted), Metta World Peace (Player Option), and Darius Morris (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 2nd Rounder (own 1st Rounder held by Cleveland)

The Lay of the Land: Dwight Howard and the uncertainty that constantly surrounds him like Pigpen on Peanuts has another chance to choose his home for the next few seasons. While the Lakers are the best option financially and promotionally, the age and inflexibility of the Lake Show could make him consider other options or even the maddening possibility of a one-year deal to become part of the 2014 free agent class. Without any insight into his decision-making process, I know better than to speculate on what Dwight will do.

Contrary to what some members of the media have written or said recently, all amnesty decisions for the 2013 offseason must be made in the first week after the end of the July moratorium. That means the Lakers' brass will not have enough time to know about Kobe Bryant’s status for next season with any meaningful clarity.

With that in mind, the only other reasonable option for the amnesty provision is Metta World Peace. While that makes sense because of the luxury tax burden on top of his salary, I could see the Lakers telling World Peace that picking up his player option means the end of his time with the Lakers due to the potential amnesty and indicating that the only way he sticks with the team would be to take a pay cut but a longer deal. I have no idea if he would take that or roll the dice on the amnesty waiver process (where a return to Houston would be a possibility) so that stands out as another unanswerable question. 

Los Angeles Clippers

The Big Questions:

- Will Chris Paul stay with the Clippers?

- Is there any chance we see CP3 take a one-year deal?

- Will Chauncey Billups return for another run with the team?

Notable Free Agents: Chris Paul (Unrestricted), Chauncey Billups (Unrestricted), Lamar Odom (Unrestricted), Matt Barnes (Unrestricted), Ronny Turiaf (Unrestricted), and Ryan Hollins (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder held by Detroit)

The Lay of the Land: No single decision affects the future of a franchise more than Chris Paul’s. As the best player to ever play for the organization and a key recruiter of their potent depth, losing Paul would decimate the team until Donald Sterling sells. After Paul makes his choice, the team will have a chance to figure out what they want to do with Eric Bledsoe. He could be a key piece on a deep run next season, but the Clippers will not have the financial flexibility to retain both Bledsoe and Paul. The trade market would contain many suitors though I am sure they will try to use the fact that the team cannot retain both as leverage to lower the asking price.

Beyond those two, the Clippers actually have most of their key players locked up for next season. The only main cogs of A Tribe Called Bench up in the air are Matt Barnes, Lamar Odom and Chauncey Billups. Each would be nice to retain but also are replaceable as long as CP3 stays in town. I fully expect Lamar Odom to re-sign considering the rough go he had the last time he left Los Angeles.

Denver Nuggets

The Big Questions:

- What does Andre Iguodala want long-term? Will he opt out?

- Will Denver retain Corey Brewer or fill his niche with one of their young players?

- Do the Nuggets want to combine any assets to build a smaller, stronger core?

Notable Free Agents: Andre Iguodala (Player Option), Corey Brewer (Unrestricted), and Timofey Mozgov (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder held by Phoenix)

The Lay of the Land: After the devastating series loss to Golden State, there will be plenty of pressure for the Nuggets to make bigger structural moves if possible. Thanks to the contracts inked with JaVale McGee and Ty Lawson in 2012, Denver does not have a ton of long-term cap space even if Andre Iguodala opts out and heads elsewhere. Iguodala still stands as a key piece since his perimeter defense can really help this team while they do not always need big offensive nights from him in order to win. Thankfully for the Nuggets, McGee, Lawson, Koufos, Gallinari, Chandler, Miller, Fournier and Faried are all signed for at least two more seasons so they will be a deep and potent team for years to come. However, that depth could also be used to try and add a higher level player who can make Denver a more dangerous team in crunch time and the playoffs. Since that likely would come in a trade, we will have to wait and see what the market would be for players like Wilson Chandler and Evan Fournier.

On Sunday, in his first game without Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard had 26 points, 17 rebounds and 3 blocks on 9-15 shooting. With the Los Angeles Lakers needing a win over the Spurs to stay alive in the playoff race, Howard outdueled Tim Duncan in the type of one-on-one post battle rarely seen in the modern NBA. He didn’t have quite the lift or mobility of his days with the Orlando Magic, but it was closer to what most expected when he came to Los Angeles. Given the inconsistent way Howard and the Lakers have played, it’s hard to know what to expect from them on Wednesday, when they could be in another win or go home scenario. Nevertheless, no matter what happens, there’s room for optimism for a team with a 6’11+ center capable of a 26/17 game.

Unless something dramatic happens in the final week of the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. If the Lakers make the playoffs, it’s hard to see them making much noise against Oklahoma City, even if they had Bryant. Ignore the vast differences in record and point differential and the matchups are still terrible. Oklahoma City has two 6’10+ post players capable of banging with Howard and Pau Gasol and a 6’7+ perimeter stopper (Thabo Sefolosha) who would have made Kobe work for his points. On the other side of the ball, the Lakers don’t have the perimeter speed to bother Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. Sending Steve Blake or a hobbled Steve Nash out to face Westbrook is like feeding a Christian to the lions.

Looking back now, the preseason expectations for the Lakers seem a bit foolish. They were an extremely top-heavy team with little depth and no continuity. Howard, coming off major back surgery, was the only one of their starting five in his twenties. With so much age on the floor, the Lakers needed a still hobbled Howard to be Superman, at least on the defensive end. Maybe things would have been different if everyone had been healthy, but it shouldn’t have been a huge surprise that Kobe (34), Nash (38), Gasol (32) and Metta World Peace (33) all missed significant time, especially considering how many minutes they had to play. It’s no coincidence the Knicks, the oldest team in the NBA, were also rocked with injuries.

But while the injuries to their top players may have been unavoidable, their lack of depth wasn’t. The Lakers team speed on the perimeter has been a glaring issue for three years, since Jason Terry and J.J. Barea steamrolled them out of the playoffs in 2011. Strangely enough, a franchise that had no problem racking up a $100 million payroll began pinching pennies when it came to upgrading the back end of their rotation. Chris Duhon and Steve Blake were solid pros in their day, but there’s no excuse for carrying two guards in their 30’s with PER’s under 12. Mitch Kupchak could have found better role-playing perimeter players in Europe, the D-League or under a couch cushion.

Regardless of what happens to their star players this offseason, upgrading their bench should be a priority. With so many offensive weapons already in place and a stable of competent big men, all the Lakers need are a “3-and-D” players at PG, SG and SF. Even without a first-round pick, they shouldn’t be too hard to find. After all, L.A. could have had Patrick Beverley, Alan Anderson and Chris Copeland for nothing at various points in the last two years. The talent pool for professional basketball players worldwide is at an all-time high; there are a number of players in Europe who could help the Lakers right now. Ignoring them in favor of aging veterans with NBA experience is akin to a starving man not picking up a $100 bill lying on the ground.

Of course, the first priority will be re-signing Howard to a max contract. While several other teams could make a run for him, it’s hard to imagine him leaving the Lakers. Star players rarely leave the biggest stage in their sport, whether it’s the Lakers, the New York Yankees or the Dallas Cowboys. If Howard went to Dallas or Atlanta, he’d be taking less money to play for a worse team in a smaller market. His reputation has taken a tremendous hit in the last two seasons, but he’s already reached rock bottom in L.A. If he wins a championship all will be forgiven and there’s no better place to do it than with the Lakers.

Re-signing Howard would push their payroll north of $90 million, which is why talk of amnestying Kobe Bryant is a red herring. Even without his $30 million salary on the books, the Lakers would still be over the salary cap, so it wouldn’t give them much more flexibility. From a strictly financial perspective, it’s hard to imagine a 35-year old shooting guard coming off an Achilles injury being worth the price the Lakers will pay for him, even if he does come back earlier than expected. It will be up to Jim and Jeanie Buss to determine whether the $80 million they could save in luxury tax penalties will be worth the massive PR hit.

Either way, the Lakers can’t afford to make too many changes in 2013, not with the summer of 2014 right around the corner. Right now, Steve Nash is the only player on the books and he could easily retire after his age-39 season. If they re-sign Howard and don’t take on any long-term salary, L.A. could make a hard push for some combination of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony or Dirk Nowitzki. Kevin Love, who played college basketball at UCLA and may be looking for a new home, could be available as well. The rules are different for a team in Los Angeles, New York or Miami; those are the three markets where clearing out cap space is actually a viable long-term strategy.

The Lakers will have to make some hard decisions on Kobe, Pau and Earl Clark, but they won’t make or break the franchise. No matter who is around him, if Howard can be as dominant as he was in Orlando, L.A. could be a title contender next season. Even if he never fully recovers, which is always a possibility for a guy with 10 NBA seasons under his belt, a 28-year-old center who can average 20/10 and contribute on both sides of the ball is an excellent start to a rebuilding effort. In an increasingly perimeter-oriented league bereft of great centers, Howard is the one player who can stand in LeBron’s way. That’s why, after all the dust clears from an incredibly tumultuous season in L.A., Howard is still the great “known unknown” for both the Lakers and the NBA.