Two playoff teams from a season ago (Mavericks, Jazz) joined repeat lottery clubs such as the Suns, Hornets/Pelicans, Blazers, Wolves and Kings.

Phoenix Suns

The Big Questions:

1. Will they keep Marcin Gortat around next season?
2. Can they get a long-term answer or two through the draft?
3. How committed are they to the young guys currently on their roster?

Notable Free Agents:  None

2013 Draft Picks Held:  Own 1st Rounder, Miami’s 1st Rounder, Denver’s 2nd Rounder (Own 2nd traded to Houston)

The Lay of the Land: After last summer, the Suns have a meaningful amount of money committed to current talent through the 14-15 season. They have some financial flexibility and the benefit of not having to overpay to keep their current guys but have a big decision to make in terms of Marcin Gortat. He is a talent and one of the few bright spots on the team but can walk away in 2014 since he is unrestricted. The Suns could try to agree to an extension or attempt to find a worthwhile offer for him any time between now and the trade deadline. The draft could end up playing a major part in this process depending where Phoenix ends up. Grabbing a big like Nerlens Noel could set a trajectory that could light the path towards other moves through trades and free agency.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Big Questions:

1. Do they want to use their cap space this summer?
2. Will Anthony Davis end up primarily guarding power forwards or centers?
3. What should they do with Eric Gordon?
4. Has Al-Farouq Aminu’s play this year earned him a new contract in New Orleans?

Notable Free Agents:  Al-Farouq Aminu (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held:  Own 1st Rounder (Own 2nd traded to Philadelphia)

The Lay of the Land: Thanks to a strong year from Greivis Vasquez, the biggest need for New Orleans has to be at small forward. Fortunately for the team, SF stands out as the only position that should have a rotation-level player at the fifth pick (the Pelicans’ most likely landing spot in the draft) between Otto Porter, Shabazz Muhammad and Victor Oladipo. The team also has an interesting option in-house in the form of Al-Farouq Aminu who had a much better year than expected. Unfortunately for the Pelicans, he is an unrestricted free agent and could end up being overpaid by another team.

Beyond the draft and Aminu, the other big question facing the Pelicans is when they want to use their cap space either by trades or free agency. With Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers all having another three years on the books, the only increased salary to come soon will be Vasquez next summer. Considering the money they have, New Orleans could choose to acquire a significant contributor or two via free agency or unbalanced trade at any point in the next two years. If Dell Demps and company see the right player become available, they could also use Eric Gordon or Robin Lopez as additional assets to get a deal done.

Sacramento Kings

The Big Questions:

1. Can their ownership situation be resolved in time to get new management in place for the draft?
2. What kind of extension should they offer DeMarcus Cousins?
3. How much are they willing to match/pay for Tyreke Evans?
4. Do they use the amnesty on John Salmons?

Notable Free Agents:  Tyreke Evans (Restricted), Cole Aldrich (Unrestricted) and Toney Douglas (Restricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held:  Own 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Unlike every other NBA team, the uncertainty around the Kings covers location, ownership, and personnel. The team needs a front office overhaul in the worst way but that process cannot start until we find out who owns the team and where they will be playing long-term. Fortunately for the franchise, they are getting closer to escaping bad contract purgatory though they have huge decisions to make on Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins over the next two summers. They stand out as two of the hardest players to get a firm read on in terms of value in the entire league and could infatuate another team enough for them to make an offer that would be hard for the Kings to swallow matching.

Since they traded Francisco Garcia at the deadline in the Thomas Robinson / Patrick Patterson trade, the only logical use of the amnesty left would be John Salmons’ $7.583 million contract for next year that only has a partial guarantee of $1 million for the following season. Clearing out that additional money would allow the team to make a bigger splash this summer without losing much on the court. Considering the new owners would like to give the fans a better quality product at the outset, a move like that seems far more likely than it would have been under the Maloofs.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Big Questions:

1. Will they be able to retain Nikola Pekovic?
2. Will Andrei Kirilenko pick up his player option?
3. Can Minnesota combine their assets to get more meaningful contributors?

Notable Free Agents:  Nikola Pekovic (Unrestricted), Andrei Kirilenko (Player Option) and Chase Budinger (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Memphis’ 1st Rounder, Brooklyn’s 2nd Rounder, and OKC’s 2nd Rounder (own 2nd Rounder traded to Portland via Cleveland)

The Lay of the Land: After a season decimated by injuries, Minnesota has another summer full of compelling possibilities. The Nikola Pekovic situation will have a major effect because a longer-term deal will mean that he will bridge the years before Ricky Rubio is eligible for an extension and likely mean the end of any gargantuan amount of cap space, though the team would still have plenty in 2014 to make some strides. If Pekovic heads elsewhere, the Timberwolves will have a clear-cut need and more long-term money than short-term money (assuming AK47 opts in). Luke Ridnour’s expiring contract might allow Minnesota to break up the point guard logjam as well if they can get a small asset in return.

The biggest problem that Minnesota has at the moment is the lack of a coherent core around their best players (Kevin Love and Rubio, in my estimation) that makes sense with their strengths and weaknesses. Even though this off-season can go in many directions given their assets, the Wolves would be wise to understand who they are building around and use the strongest building blocks they have. 

Portland Trail Blazers

The Big Questions:

1. Can they pull a starter-quality player through free agency or an unbalanced trade?
2. Will they re-sign JJ Hickson?
3. How much better will Damian Lillard be next season?

Notable Free Agents:  JJ Hickson (Unrestricted) and Eric Maynor (Restricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held:  Own 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder, T-Wolves’ 2nd Rounder, Celtics’ 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: With three core starters (LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum) locked up through at least 14-15 and a fair amount of cap space, the Blazers have a clear opportunity to take their team to another level talent-wise. With nine players already under contract for next season, four draft picks, and only around $43M on the books before draft picks, they can be aggressive with the space they have in either of the next two summers. Even though this year’s class is weaker they could get a nice SG or C through free agency or by getting a talent from a team looking to be a player in the big 2014 free agent class.

Portland also faces an interesting decision on JJ Hickson. He has been a nice contributor this season but the team will likely have to face the reality that they can better use the money they would pay him to shore up more glaring holes in their roster and/or make a more significant upgrade in talent. I absolutely love the situation the Blazers have right now though it will take more positive moves this summer to work into the tightly packed Western Conference Playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks

The Big Questions:

1. Can they get an elite talent through free agency?
2. Will they retain any of their young free agent guards?
3. If they get a major player, will they have enough depth to compete this season?

Notable Free Agents:  OJ Mayo (Player Option), Darren Collison (Restricted), Rodrigue Beaubois (Restricted), Chris Kaman (Unrestricted), Brandan Wright (Unrestricted), Elton Brand (Unrestricted) and Anthonty Morrow (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Dallas is in an unusual situation because they only have six players under contract for next season and four of those six will be on the last year of their deals. Unfortunately for Mark Cuban, two of those contracts (Dirk Nowitzki’s final year and Shawn Marion’s player option) combine for $32 million. That large number makes it much harder to build a long-term team in just one summer. Fortunately, it could become a two-year process where the team gets one building block now and then another significant one next summer after those big salaries come off the books entirely. Furthermore, a progression like that would build momentum and potentially make Dallas more enticing to someone in next year’s class.

The Mavericks also face the challenge of making decisions on O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison and Rodrigue Beaubois at the same time. Mayo can go wherever he likes if he declines his player option with DC and Roddy Buckets have to deal with being restricted free agents. Having that much volatility in terms of salary will make it harder for the front office to keep things together unless they can hold off their RFA’s from signing until after they handle potential big ticket players. Dallas also loses out with the new sign-and-trade rules because now the number of teams that would acquire any of the three guards while giving resources to Dallas has been cut dramatically. One of the most complicated and convoluted summers could also yield fantastic results if the dominoes line up over the first few weeks of July.

Utah Jazz

The Big Questions:

1. What combination of Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson do they keep?
2. Can they agree to an extension with Derrick Favors or Gordon Hayward?
3. How will they use their insane amount of cap space beyond retaining current players?

Notable Free Agents: Paul Millsap (Unrestricted), Al Jefferson (Unrestricted), Mo Williams (Unrestricted), Randy Foye (Unrestricted), Earl Watson (Unrestricted), DeMarre Carroll (Unrestricted) and Jamaal Tinsley (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Golden State’s 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: The best way I know how to describe Utah’s challenge this summer is that they have to attempt to speak two languages at the same time. Free agency all happens in the same whirlwind so the Jazz front office has to figure out whether they can retain one or both of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap (and at what price) while also trying to figure out how to use the remaining cap space to make the best possible roster while sitting on cap holds for Jefferson and Millsap as long as they are unsigned. Fortunately for Utah, they have a ton of salary cap space and that gives them a little more time flexibility than they would have without it.

One of the downsides of possessing multiple young talents at the same time is that eventually they will need to get pay raises. Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward will leave their rookie deals next summer, which means they are eligible for extensions until the start of next season. Thanks to restricted free agency, the downside risk of not coming to a deal is lower than for unrestricted players but the team must estimate the cost of retaining both of them and Enes Kanter one year later when doling out contracts now. With two first round picks and plenty of room to add new salary, no team has a greater opportunity to improve this summer than the Utah Jazz.

Follow @DannyLeroux

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0,” we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list.

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only person left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That seems unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to dollar figures over $5 million for 2013-14 this past offseason, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets- Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011)

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Tyrus until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the TaJ Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers- Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011)

Dallas Mavericks- Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets- Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors- Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011)

Houston Rockets- Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers- Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011)

Los Angeles Clippers- Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of Metta’s onerous deal seems like the best play. The addition of Chris Duhon makes Steve Blake a slightly greater possibility, but he still appears moveable via trade and provides fair value to the team.

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Zach Randolph in 2014. Memphis will eventually need to make a decision on what to do with their core. Having Z-Bo, Gay, Conley, and Marc Gasol on the books through 2014-15 likely means that the team has a choice to make in 2014 unless either Randolph or Gay makes it for them by declining their player option. My gut says that new ownership will cut bait on an expensive $16.5 million final year option for Randolph.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8M final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. With Beno Udrih expiring at the end of this season, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not Monta Ellis opts out, look for him to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room.

Minnesota Timberwolves- Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks- Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation, but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would be a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic- Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011)

Philadelphia 76ers- Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns- Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers- Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1M) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 off-season when Tyreke Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. Interestingly, that low buyout could also make Garcia the choice if management sees the talent disparity between the two as high enough to warrant the switch.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-14 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Ed Davis

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards- Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

While young players often make their NBA reputations in the Rookie of the Year race, it’s impossible to fairly evaluate them until after their sophomore campaigns. The transition between college and the NBA is the biggest jump players make in their careers. NCAA teams play 30 to 40-game seasons spread over five months; NBA teams (normally) cram 82 games into the same period of time.

Even players in powerhouse conferences like the Big East only face NBA-caliber competition once or twice per week, while they might face NBA players at their position a handful of times all season. At the next level, they’re facing NBA players every single night.

Against amateur competition, they can coast defensively because they are such superior athletes. There aren’t any 6’9, 275 small forwards with 40 inch verticals barreling down the lane in college, and there certainly aren’t any 6’11, 265 centers with 40 inch verticals annihilating weak shots at the rim. And while most dominated the ball their whole lives, unless they were drafted at the top of the lottery, NBA rookies have to learn how to be efficient off-ball role players.

The off court transition is just as huge: in college, players are coddled by coaches whose job status depends on keeping them on campus by developing a “family atmosphere” around their program. In the NBA, they are living on their own for the first time, thrust in an unfamiliar city half-way across the country, with highly-publicized seven-figure incomes that make them a target for con men and gold-diggers looking to make a quick buck.

By the time they hit the dreaded “rookie wall”, often for a team going nowhere full of veterans trying to pad their statistics in order to get one more contract, their first year has become mostly about survival.

Last season, my list of second-year breakout players (guys who did not play in the Rookie Game on All-Star Weekend) had Ekpe Udoh, Gordon Hayward, Avery Bradley, Kevin Seraphin and Devin Ebanks on it. Not all “broke out” like Bradley did, but I think all five will last in the NBA. Here are six players from the 2011 draft that could have breakout years in 2012-2013:

Tobias Harris: Harris has slipped under the radar since playing one season for a scandal-laden program at Tennessee and not getting consistent playing time as a rookie. However, there’s a reason he was ranked No. 6 in his high school class. At 6’8 225 with a 6’11 wingspan, he has serious mismatch potential, with the ability to punish smaller defenders on the block and take bigger ones off the dribble. He produced in the rare minutes he got in 2012: per-36 minute averages of 16 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists on 47% shooting.

Like many combo forwards, Harris doesn’t have a natural defensive position, but Milwaukee has enough long and athletic players upfront to hide him on that side of the ball. At the same time, he can give them some much needed scoring ability in the front-court as well as a good nose for the basketball. The big question about his game is whether he can develop into a more consistent jump-shooter, but the fact the he is so young for his age (he turned 20 in July, making him younger than some players entering college) is encouraging.

Nikola Vucevic: Players with his size (6’11 260 with a 7’4 wingspan) and skill level tend to have long careers in the NBA. Vucevic is comfortable with the ball in his hands, moves decently for a big man and can step out and knock down a 15-foot jumper. He never got a consistent role in a Philadelphia team in a playoff race, but an Orlando team going nowhere fast will have nothing but time to develop his game.

He’s not a great athlete, so he’ll never be a defensive anchor, but his size could make him a decent individual defender in the post. To become a starting-caliber player, he’ll need to refine his offensive game and become more efficient in the half-court: he shot 45% from the field and 53% from the free-throw line as a rookie. If he does, he has the chance to be a Chris Kaman or even a Brad Miller type center.

Alec Burks: Few lottery picks have ever had a lower profile: Burks was a lightly-regarded three-star recruit out of high school, played two seasons on a Colorado team that just missed the NCAA Tournament and didn’t start a game in his rookie season in Utah. There are several holes in his game: as a rookie, he took less than 1 3-pointer a game and had a assist-to-turnover ratio barely over 1. However, he’s an athletic 6’6 195 slasher with a 6’10 wingspan who can create his own shot and get to the rim (37% of his shots were in the paint in 2012) fairly easily. There aren’t that many guards with that skill-set, even in the lottery.

Jimmy Butler: Butler isn’t great at any one part of the game, but he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses either. In his final season at Marquette, he shot 49/35/78, was second in points, second in rebounds, fourth in assists, first in blocks and third in steals on a team that went to the Sweet 16. At 6’7 220, that should be enough for him to have a long NBA career, as he can be an effective player regardless of the type of lineup he’s in.

A No. 30 overall pick on a Bulls team contending for a title, he barely played as a rookie, but he’s impressed in Summer League and the pre-season. Buzz Williams’ system produces tough, hard-nosed players with the versatility and basketball IQ to play multiple positions (Wesley Matthews); Butler, once a lightly regarded junior college transfer, could be its next NBA success story. He’ll have every chance to earn a spot in Tom Thibodeau’s rotation on a Chicago team that desperately needs perimeter depth.

Jordan Hamilton: The polar opposite of Butler in many ways, Hamilton was a five-star prospect who came to Texas with a huge attitude and a one-dimensional game. After nearly driving Rick Barnes insane as a freshman, Hamilton developed into a more well-rounded player and put up better stats than Harrison Barnes did in his sophomore year at UNC: 18.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists on 44/39/77 shooting. George Karl has never been comfortable playing rookies, but in his second season, the 6’7 220 Hamilton can give Denver some badly needed outside shooting on the perimeter.