One of the challenges of prediction threads are the seemingly small differences. As such, the way that I do them is to put teams in tiers; what a tier means is that I would not be surprised if teams within a tier went in any order, but I would be surprised to see a team over or underperform their group. Also, the tiers in the West and East do not correspond; the lines of separation are at different points:

Western Conference

Tier 1: Thriller

Lakers: I took a ton of flack for having the Lakers below the center in my Offseason Review, but they are absolutely still the best regular season team in the Western Conference. I wish they had a little more depth, but they have the makeup to stroll to the #1 seed barring the unforeseen.

Tier 2: Triumph

Spurs: They did an excellent job this off-season making their team an even better fit for the way Pops and Company view the regular season. Players like DeJuan Blair and Richard Jefferson will help keep everyone rested going into the playoffs.

Blazers: The 2nd most talented team in the Western Conference sits slightly below the Spurs because it will take some time for their rotations to work out. Portland might be the first team in a decade to suffer record-wise from having too much talent, and let?s hope that it doesn?t sort itself out because of injuries.

Nuggets: Had serious thoughts about moving them to Tier 3 because of the pivotal depth they lost with Linas and Dahntay leaving the fold. The first team on the list that could slide down because of injury concerns; any of their starters going down would make this team incredibly beatable.

Tier 3: Got to Be There

Mavericks: Still not sold on the coexistence of Shawn Marion and Josh Howard. Kidd makes many, many things smoother on this team, but the amazing lack of players who can play C could loom large.

Hornets: Teams with top tier point guards do not miss the playoffs very often. Chris Paul is the best PG in the league, so that?s that. If Okafor can stay on the floor more than Tyson did last year (and he will), this team can hang tough in their division. Keep an eye on Julian Wright- any SF that can deliver would get minutes and get this squad a few extra wins.

Jazz: How in the world is this rotation going to work? Paul Millsap isn?t a SF, Carlos Boozer isn?t a C (though Okur?s status there is shaky too), and their roster just fits together strangely. Still a clear playoff team thanks to Deron and the overall talent, to be sure. Keep an eye on Kosta Koufos and Eric Maynor- both will play small roles, but could end up swinging some games in the regular season and the playoffs.

Tier 4: This is It

Clippers: An underrated team as long as Baron Davis doesn?t implode into his Kimbo Slice beard. A frontcourt of Kaman, Camby, Griffin, and the sleeper DeAndre Jordan can both withstand injury and provide major matchup advantages in most games. If Al Thornton can?t shoot this team into oblivion, they?re the team to beat for the 8-seed.

Warriors: It?s amazing to think that a team with two of its best players wanting out can make it this high, but the Warriors have an absolute ton of talent and a major home court advantage. Even if Captain Jack is traded for pennies on the dollar, players like Kelenna Azubuike and Anthony Morrow can more than pick up the slack (since the team doesn?t really care about defense).

Thunder: The only team in this tier with a clear-cut healthy #1 scorer and a better than average coach, which is pretty scary. If they can get 60+ positive minutes from the PF/C slots, we could see the Durantula in the playoffs?

Suns: Lordy, lordy. Just not a big fan of the hodgepodge of talent surrounding Phoenix?s core, especially since their big man collection leaves a ton to be desired. Earl Clark could end up being the key to their playoff hopes, since he can bring it and back up both the PF and SF spots in the Suns? system.

Rockets: Obviously, the Rockets reside much higher on this list if the team had a chance of being 100%. They aren?t, so they aren?t. It should still be fun to see how this roster works together, and it might actually fit together well in Adelman?s system.

Tier 5: Lookin? through the Windows

Timberwolves: Man, this team just cannot catch a break. Even with a healthy squad, Minny is a wing scorer short of contention. There is still a ton to love about this T-Wolves team, especially the fact that they have competent PG play which is so important for a young, developing squad.

Tier 6: Blood on the [Dance] Floor

Grizzlies: The most interesting collection of talent in the last decade. If their scorers are on, they can beat almost any team on any night. However, their defense will turn anybody into a scorer. I may end up watching Z-Bo, AI, Rudy Gay, and The Juice Deuce on the floor at the same time just to see if the world explodes.

Kings: They?ve got some good pieces (Kevin Marin, Evans, Hawes, JT, Omri), but they are a few core cogs from turning it around. A spunky squad that will inevitably surprise some people, the Kings are still relegated to the bottom of the conference because of a lack of a true lead guard and identity on either side of the ball.

Eastern Conference

Tier 1: Goin? Places

Celtics: We still don?t know if 2009 KG will be close to 2007 KG, but if he is, this is the best regular season team in the conference bar none. The Celtics have an amazing starting five and some semi-respectable depth with the additions of Sheed and Marquis Daniels. They still have the risk of sliding if one of their core guys is hurt or ineffective, but they have more depth than their competition where it matters most.

Cavaliers: It is impossible to evaluate the Shaq Experiment until the playoffs, but the problem that will linger for Cleveland in the regular season is that they do not have a perimeter scorer who can create his own shot well enough to keep the train going when LBJ is off the court. Still, a clear-cut choice for Top-2 in the conference with the best player on the planet wearing the wine and gold.

Magic: The Magic are now a better team in the regular season thanks to their improved depth. It is a little disturbing that their depth PG?s are Anthony Johnson and White Chocolate considering Jameer is coming off of an injury, but a solid group of swingmen and an underrated group of bigs should keep Orlando in just about any game.

Tier 2: Dangerous

Hawks: Atlanta finally has the pieces to be a real difference-maker in the playoffs. A legit starting five, some nice little depth in Crawford, Joe Smith and Zaza, and some scoring balance. Still wish they had a shot changer on the interior other than Josh, but some things will have to come later I guess.

Heat: One advantage of having the best player on the floor 90% of the time is that you win more games than you should. It remains to be seen if the supporting players can make the leap, but D-Wade makes Miami a team to watch this year.

Raptors: Team Benneton can make some real strides this year if they hit their stride early on. The big man core of Bosh, Il Mago and Rasho should work together well and Hedo could give this squad the identity they have been looking for. The X-Factor for them is the shooting guard slot; production from there would make this team the one that BOS/CLE/ORL would be worried about in Round 2.

Tier 3: Get it Together

Wizards: Nothing quite like taking a horrible defensive team and adding two scorers to the mix. What makes Washington different than Memphis is that their scorers actually share the ball pretty well and make a coherent offensive package. They need some D, but I wonder if the guys who can actually play it will get minutes considering the talent above them.

Pistons: Another overstuffed team at the swingman spots. No idea how their minutes shake out, but adding pieces without taking a ton away should keep Detroit in the playoffs?for now. Plus, we can see who wins between Gordon and Stuckey in a no pass competition.

76ers: The ultimate experiment of how important a point guard is to an NBA team. The return of Brand coupled with increased minutes for Mr. Speights should help make Philly a hard match-up for many teams, but they could easily be derailed by the lack of a distributor who has played lead guard since high school.

Tier 4: Off the Wall

Bulls: They have some excellent pieces, but they replaced Ben Gordon?s scoring with very little in that department. Unless Rose learned how to shoot the 3-ball, Chicago will be awfully easy to defend this season.

Bobcats: If they put it together, Charlotte has the makings of a lower seed playoff team. The problem is that they are still missing that go-to scorer in crunch time and depth at the swingman spots.

Tier 5: Maybe Tomorrow

Pacers: Another team that could make the playoffs if they put the pieces together, but they do not have as many in place right now as Charlotte, especially in terms of a defensive identity. Danny Granger is a stud and they have a few guys I really like in the long term (especially Mr. Rush), but their time is not now.

Nets: The Nets have a very good core of Devin, Brook, and the SG duo (Lee and Williams), but their quality at the forward spots leaves a great deal to be desired. If only they had the salary flexibility to add scorers at those spots in the future?

Tier 6: Bad

Knicks: A wonderful smattering of question marks shoved into D?Antoni?s system. Chandler, Danilo, and Lee should all produce this year, but there just is not enough here to put the Knicks any higher than the bottom tier of the conference for this season.

Bucks: A team (understandably) in flux, the Bucks need to figure out where they?re going so they can get there. Skiles is an underrated coach, but it makes life harder for him when the PG position is rough and there are not nearly enough scorers playing at the forward slots. If someone breaks out at SF or PF, this team can move up a few notches, but it?s hard to see that right now.

Award Predictions

MVP: LeBron James

Coach of the Year: Phil Jackson

Defensive Player of the Year: Kevin Garnett

6th Man of the Year: Manu

Most Improved: Gregory Oden

Playoff Predictions

Western Conference:

Round One:

Lakers over Clippers in 4

Spurs over Jazz in 6

Blazers over Hornets in 5

Mavericks over Nuggets in 6

Round Two:

Lakers over Mavericks in 5

Spurs over Blazers in 7

Western Conference Finals:

Spurs over Lakers in 6

Eastern Conference:

Round One:

Celtics over Pistons in 4

Cavaliers over Wizards in 5

Magic over Raptors in 7

Hawks over Heat in 6

Round Two:

Celtics over Hawks in 6

Cavaliers over Magic in 6

Eastern Conference Finals:

Celtics over Cavaliers in 6

NBA Finals:

Celtics over Spurs in 7

Finals MVP: Kevin Garnett


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