The 2009-10 season has a fairly limited set of scenarios; the Lakers or Spurs will meet the Celtics, Magic or Cavaliers in the Finals.  There are compelling arguments to be made for each team to ultimately win the 2010 NBA Championship, though I believe the Lakers have at least a 50% chance with the other four teams sharing the remaining 50% about evenly.

Lakers

Fate: Phil Jackson needs to keep the most deeply talented roster of this decade healthy and interested for when their season begins in earnest near Memorial Day.  I don't foresee any troubles with Ron Artest at all and I believe he makes them an even more dangerous team.  For as productive as Trevor Ariza was last season, he was more of a product of playing between some of the game's purest playmakers in Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom and I expect his limitations to be exposed at least a little bit in Houston.

Reason To Watch: Can Andrew Bynum become a consistent top-three center?

Celtics

Fate: The Celtics are arguably as talented as the Lakers, depending on which style you might prefer, but the mileage concerns are legitimately troubling.  If the Big 3, plus Rajon Rondo are all healthy in the postseason, I expect them to have an easier time with the Cavaliers and Magic in the playoffs than many anticipate.

Reason To Watch: The short term answer is Kevin Garnett's knee, but the longer term question is whether Rondo and the Celtics appear to commit to each other in the long term?

Spurs

Fate: Similar to the Celtics, the Spurs are right there with the Lakers in terms of talent, but need a healthy Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili this Spring in order to prove it.  They have never been one of my favorite teams, but seeing this group give it one more legitimate shot at winning a title would make for a nice story.

Reason To Watch: How will Richard Jefferson change the wing productivity?

Magic

Fate: Adding a still two or maybe three years of prime basketball Vince Carter to Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and the perennially forgotten about Jameer Nelson gives Orlando a markedly better chance at winning a title.  I also like the Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes moves, who both add elements they were missing last season against the Lakers.

Reason To Watch: Can Howard develop a dependable back to the basket game and/or a little Patrick Ewing jumper?

Cavaliers

Fate: Unless Cleveland can make an in-season trade for a player that can legitimately create his own offense, this team has very little in common with the other elite teams other than a superstar that continues to get better in LeBron James.  

Reason To Watch: How much pressure will LeBron put on management to make a bold move?

Blazers

Fate: Adding Andre Miller will somehow create a situation where the Blazers spin out of control and magically win only 41 games like someone forgot to reset the timer in a hatch on a moving island?  A still developing Blazers team won 54 games last season and legitimately could push it to 60 this season, given one more nudge up to their soon approaching ceilings for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, plus a fully healthy Greg Oden and a second five that has players who would start on many teams.

Reason To Watch: Do the Blazers continue to hold with their depth or do they finally consolidate via a blockbuster trade?

Nuggets

Fate: Put LeBron, Kobe or Dwyane Wade on this Denver team and they are more than good enough to win a title, and even though Carmelo Anthony is in that next tier by a margin that isn't as huge as the casual fan might think, it is just wide enough to matter.

Reason To Watch: Would the Nuggets flip Chauncey Billups in a reloading move to be in a better spot when the Spurs expire?

Mavericks

Fate: If pure depth of quality players made as much of a difference in the NBA as it does in the NFL, this Dallas team would probably be like this year's San Diego Chargers.  Similarly, it will probably take a few weeks for them to figure it out, but I think they'll evolve into a cohesive team by the time the playoffs begin.

Reason To Watch: Does Mark Cuban make a panic move in February in the equivalent of doubling down on 12?

Heat

Fate: You have to love a team that looks improved while doing nothing during the offseason other than maintaing cap space, unlike their friends in Cleveland.  They were fifth in the Eastern Conference last season while not getting anything meaningful from Michael Beasley until the snow birds went home.

Reason To Watch: Would Miami do anything to compromise the 2010 cap space in-season?

Raptors

Fate: I love the aggressive summer from Bryan Colangelo, but their likely shortcomings (similar to Denver) will say more about Chris Bosh than it does about the supporting cast.  

Reason To Watch: Will the Bosh, Turkoglu, Bargnani frontcourt have too many feast or famine nights?

Jazz

Fate: Utah's best chance with this group was probably in 2007 when they couldn't sneak past the Spurs.  The Northwest Division is now very difficult with Denver and Portland being better and the Thunder are probably a year away from having a superior team.

Reason To Watch: How high of a pick will the Jazz receive from the Knicks?

76ers

Fate: The 2006 Elton Brand would present a complete game changer for Philadelphia, who probably have the most intriguing collection of young talent that isn't grouped in with Portland or Oklahoma City.  

Reason To Watch: How bad will the Sixers be outplayed at the point guard position?

Hornets

Fate: I think this is the season Chris Paul morphs into the KG 06-07 in terms of frustration levels with the unfortunate futility of the situation, but maybe I'm one season too early on that.  Nobody would love to see a title in New Orleans more than me, but I think the Saints have the clear edge there right now.

Reason To Watch: What kind of wing can Julian Wright be offensively?

Hawks

Fate: This group is about as good as they'll ever be with the possible exception of Al Horford.  To the credit of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby and Horford, trade out Joe Johnson for LeBron and this team wins the title.

Reason To Watch: Does Jeff Teague supplant Mike Bibby as the Atlanta starter this season or next?  His ascent will probably be a little more rapid than Monta Ellis', but similar in nature.

Wizards

Fate: The Wizards have enough supremely talented offensive players to beat any team in this league in convincing fashion, but not enough defense to sustain any type of winning streak, though they will be underrated in that category.

Reason To Watch: What version of Gilbert Arenas will we see after two lost seasons?

Suns

Fate: I see the Suns as a shadow of themselves, but somehow vastly overlooked by too many people in favor of teams like the Clippers and Thunder.  Given how many fake trades have involved him since he last actually stepped on the floor, a lot of people are forgetting that Amare Stoudemire hasn't been dealt yet.

Reason To Watch: How badly will Steve Nash wish he could bring Earl Clark in a time machine back to 2006 with him?

Bulls

Fate: Without any real replacement for Ben Gordon's departure, this team will desperately struggle to score efficient buckets in plays that don't heavily involve Derrick Rose.  Rose is very good already and has the chance to increase his productivity two-fold, but he can't carry this much weight this early.

Reason To Watch: Will Luol Deng ever become that player Kobe Bryant wanted to abandon the Lakers to play beside?

Clippers

Fate: The Blake Griffin injury takes a lot of wind out of the sails of this team that once had a logo that would make Duran Duran jealous.  Baron Davis showed up slim, recommitted and not quite as obsessed with movies, but this one might be over before it begins.

Reason To Watch: Will the Clippers legitimately put itself in a position to make a run at LeBron?

Thunder

Fate: This season will be Oklahoma City's equivalent to the 2007-08 Blazers.  Kevin Durant will make the All-Star game as Brandon Roy did, several other players will take a significant step forward and they'll win around 40 games.

Reason To Watch: Will Durant put the +/- debate to sleep?

Pistons

Fate: The Pistons have a lot of third or fourth options, but no real All-Star on their roster.  They also hold very little resemblance defensively to the classic Detroit teams that were in the Eastern Conference Finals on an annual basis.

Reason To Watch: How does Joe Dumars part ways with TayShaun Prince and Rip Hamilton?

Rockets

Fate: Take away the top two players on any team in the league and they won't make the playoffs, so the fate of this club is largely out of their hands.

Reason To Watch: Will Chase Budinger immediately emerge as the 2009 Draft steal?

Warriors

Fate: The Warriors have enough young talent to be exciting and enough soap opera stories to be entertaining, but not enough harmony or a high end veteran to make the playoffs.

Reason To Watch: Has there ever been a time when a Don Nelson team has been boring, either on or off the floor?

Nets

Fate: Everyone is looking for a reason to love Terrence Williams, who brings more personality in his backpack than Devin Harris and Brook Lopez have combined, but they're in wait until 2010 mode.

Reason To Watch: Will Lopez become the NBA's number two center for just one season while the Blazers struggle with a learning curve on how to fully utilize Oden?

Wolves

Fate: Depending on what happens with Corey Brewer and the health of their bigs, this team isn't too far away from winning 35 games.

Reason To Watch: What will be David Kahn's next move on Ricky Rubio?

Pacers

Fate: In Danny Granger, the Pacers easily have the best single player of all of the team's I've lumped in at the bottom.  I see too many safe and steady supporting pieces for Indiana to be truly competitive.

Reason To Watch: How entertaining (meant affectionately) will Tyler Hansbrough's transition to the NBA be to watch?

Grizzlies

Fate: The Grizzlies are a fantasy basketball team come to life in the flesh, we just needed the late Michael Jackson to write the soundtrack.

Reason To Watch: The reasons are obvious.

Bucks

Fate: The Bucks are almost in a full rebuild around Brandon Jennings, but are still clinging to a slim hope behind Michael Redd and the intense Scott Skiles.

Reason To Watch: How does the first American-to-Euro-to-NBA player fare in his rookie season?

Knicks

Fate: For me, the 2009-10 Knicks season is simply an audition for a free agent to see enough promise to take a small step backwards for a glimmer of championship potential.

Reason To Watch: Can Danilo Gallinari stay healthy enough to become a budding star?

Bobcats

Fate: It is a shame the twilight of Larry Brown's coaching career is being spent in this way after they were close to the playoffs in his first season on the job.  There is no team that needs to be on a collision course with John Wall more than the Bobcats.

Reason To Watch: Will Gerald Wallace spend more minutes on the floor than Michael Jordan spends on the job?

Kings

Fate: Kevin Martin is a fine scorer, plus they have a few promising pieces in the frontcourt in Spence Hawes and Jason Thompson, but there is no light at the end of the tunnel here for several years.

Reason To Watch: Will this mismatched backcourt (Martin and Tyreke Evans) be an even worse fit than their neighbors in Oakland (Monta Ellis and Steph Curry)?

Predictions

Final Four: Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Magic

Championship: Lakers over Celtics