Post#325 » by RedIndian » Thu May 23, 2024 9:04 am
So my draft board as of now for #22 would be as under. Focus would be on players who are ready to come in and play straight away and are well-rounded.
Guards
1. Devin Carter – favourite prospect if he drops to our range. 6’2.5 with a 6’8.5 wingspan. Incredible rebounder and shot-blocker for a guard. High energy, makes 3s both of the catch and bounce. Would fit perfectly as the third guard next to Booker and Beal and would give us toughness and edge in the mould of a Derrick White or Caruso.
2. Jared McCain – super fun prospect, with great IQ and competitiveness. Absolutely lights-out shooter, who should be a better NBA than college player with the extra spacing. Floor should be a Seth Curry type, but ceiling could be a Maxey or Quickley type player. Think he gets taken before #22 though.
3. Ajay Mitchell – Big riser in the combine. Big lefty combo guard at 6’4 with a 6’6”5 wingspan. Very smooth three level scorer, high IQ passer and his defense is surprisingly good (even though he’s not the most athletic). He’s kinda like a lefty Andrew Nembhard, who’s been a superb pick for Indiana. Should be playable in the NBA straight being a 3 year guy.
I’d be happy drafting a legit guard prospect because we need someone to rotate as our 3rd guard with Book and Beal. Gordon is likely not back, and he was disappointing this season anyway. The likes of Saben Lee won’t cut it. You could pick up the likes of Kris Dunn or Delon Wright in free agency. Maybe CP3 or Lowry even? If that happens, we probably a draft a wing or a big, but if we don’t go down that route, guard is probably the way to go in the draft. Other prospects in our range I’m not considering – Tyler Kolek, Carlton Carrington, Juan Nunez, KJ Simpson.
• Kolek – I would not hate it if we picked him, because I do believe he can carve out a role for himself in the NBA given his IQ and competitiveness. However, I am less high on him since his draft measurements came out – 6’1.25 with a 6’2.5 wingpsan and a subpar 7’11 standing reach. The list of players who’ve been capable defenders in the last 20 years with a sub 8 foot standing reach ends at Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. For reference, even Tyus Jones is at 8’1 and TJ McConnell is at 8’05. You can rely on high-iq, good positioning and smarts all you want, but when you’re that small, you’re going to be a defensive liability in the playoffs. I’ve also said previously that his first step isn’t all that great, and he’s also extremely left hand dominant on his finishes. That sort of one-dimensional play gets exposed very quickly in the NBA.
• Carrington – Carrington has excellent size, and is a very capable playmaker and I think his shooting will be a lot better in the pros. But he’s still quite raw, and needs to add strength. He could hit, but higher chances that he goes down the road of someone like a Kira Lewis. Even if he does hit eventually, I suspect it’ll be after an initial few years of struggles (a bit like Nickeil-Alexander Walker)
• Nunez - flat out the most special playmaker in the draft. Tremendous craft, touch, vision with the ball in his hands – like I’m talking Rubio, Luka level passing IQ. But the shooting touch is suspect (58% from the FT line, very streaky from 3). Plus, he’s a bit pudgy and a terrible defender. Shooting will be his swing skill. If he’s a credible shooter in the NBA, his entire outlook changes – we’ll be looking at a special offensive player. If he can’t shoot, then he’d be basically like a Rubio, but with terrible defense. At that point, can’t see him surviving in the NBA.
• KJ Simpson – Talented offensive player, who does a bit of everything, but just too small. Wouldn’t draft.
Small Wings (2/3s)
1. Jaylon Tyson – Fwiw, the small-wing archetype is not something I’d go for. We have too many SGs on the roster, and we should either get a proper guard, a big wing or a true big. But if we were to hypothetically go down this route, Tyson would be my first pick at #22. Very well rounded guy, who’s athletic, strong and does a bunch of stuff well. Could see him being a Dillon Brooks or Caleb Martin type.
2. Pelle Larsson – Think he’ll be a very solid pro. His shooting should translate, but what I like most about him is that he’s pretty strong. Should be able to bump his chest against bigger wings and play reasonable defense in the playoffs. Max Strus type.
3. Hunter Sallis – Another well-rounded guy who does a bunch of stuff well. Keon Ellis’ success with the Kings this season shows that this archetype can carve out a nice role in the NBA.
Big Wings (3/4s)
1. Tristan Da Silva – Kyle Kuzma-lite, who has terrific size at 6’9. Super shooter (39% from 3 over the last 2 seasons). 4 year pro, who has a mostly NBA ready body, can handle the ball in the PnR, make shots from deep and can get to the rim on his own. Offensively, he is ready to contribute as a role player in the NBA straight away. You could have him come off the bench, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged 10 points as a rookie in 20 odd mins. Defensively, I think he is not going to be a stopper. Lacks elite level strength or explosiveness, but at 6’9, his size alone should mean he’s a solid defender. He’s a smart player, so he’ll figure that out I would think.
2. Tyler Smith – Still a very young and raw prospect, but at 6’10 with a 7’1, smooth athleticism and a gorgeous shooting stroke, the tools are simply too nice for him to be a dud. Guy will shoot, get to the rim, block shots from day 1. I do expect growing pains when it comes to defense (too stiff on the perimeter, too weak on the inside), struggles with team defense concepts, and turnovers. BUT there is enough in there that there will be contributions from day 1, and if he develops well, he’ll be a starting calibre NBA four by his 2nd or 3rd year.
3. Jalen Bridges – High-floor role player with excellent size (6’8) who defends and shoots. Shouldn’t expect much more than a 3nD profile though.
This is an excellent archetype for us to draft, because we need good playable wings. Da Silva and Smith should be both be in our draft range. I’d expect Ryan Dunn, Bobi Klintman and Johnny Furphy to also be available at #22, but I have some reservations about all of them.
• Dunn – I love Dunn. I think he’s the best defender in the class with tremendous tenacity AND athleticism. But his offense is so egregiously bad, I simply can’t envision him being playable unless he dramatically re-works his shot. There’s a non-zero chance that happens, but I simply don’t think we’re in a position to draft a player that doesn’t pan out. We need to hit with our pick, so I’d avoid Dunn for that reason.
• Klintman - Similar to Tyler Smith in that he’s young and raw and has shooting potential, but I just think Smith is better. Klintman’s motor runs hot and cold, while Smith’s seems more consistent, so I’d back him more as a prospect.
• Furphy - Would have probably been higher on Furphy at the start of the year than any of the others, but his shooting dipped, and it’s painfully obvious that his body isn’t NBA ready yet. Needs to put on significant strength and muscle before he can contribute at the NBA level. Decent chance that might happen, and he ends up being the best of these players, but the risk of drafting a project is too high.
Bigs
1. DaRon Holmes – At #22, probably the safest big to draft in terms of immediate impact. Measured at 6’9 with a 7’1 wingspan and 9’0 standing reach. Not true center size, but that’s not his archetype anyway. He’s more of a Naz Reid, Taj Gibson, Bobby Portis type 4/5 hybrid. Someone who excels in a first big off the bench role. He will be super productive as he does a bit of everything – rim running, shooting threes, reasonably competent in short roll passing, push shot plus switchable, shot-blocking presence as well. Will struggle at defending true NBA fives like Jokic or Embiid (who doesn’t?), but will most be able to hang with the average NBA center. Arizona kid too, with a great motor and character. Drafting him should be a no-brainer.
2. Yves Missi – Missi’s measurements are virtually identical to Nic Claxton’s (6’11 with a 7’2 wingspan and a 9’1.5 wingspan), and that’s his player archetype. Superb athlete who moves quickly across the floor and has an explosive and smooth jump. Only issue is that like Claxton, he’s a twig and will struggle with the physicality of the NBA early on. Claxton took till year 3 to be actually productive (and he was a 2-year college guy). Expect the same from Missi. He also needs to improve from the line, and learn to finish through contact (struggles with this currently). There’s high potential with him, but he’s going to be a bit of a project. I don’t see him helping in next year’s playoffs at all, for instance.
3. Zach Edey – I’d reluctantly draft Edey if Holmes and Missi were off the board, and I’d had to draft a big. Edey is too big, too competitive and with a reasonably high base level of skill, that he’d be a complete dud in the NBA. He’ll be able to carve out some role, but he needs to embrace being a dirt worker like Zubac if he really wants to succeed. He’s not skilled enough that the offense will run through him like it did in college (even for a bench role). He needs to embrace being an absolute bruiser, who sets bone crushing screens, punishes mismatches, and absolute outrebounds a team on his own. If he embraces that role, he’ll be a valuable (maybe starting) center in the NBA. Quicker players will undoubtedly kill him in space and on switches – that’s par for the course when you’re 7’4, 300 pounds, but if he maximises his strengths, he can be valuable. I’m not sure he’s the best fit for what we need though, so I’d frankly rather pass on him if push came to shove.
The bigs in our range who I’d avoid are Ke’lel Ware and Filipowski:
• Ware – Ware has the perfect athletic tools – 7’0 with 7’4.5 wingspan. Terrific athlete with a shooting stroke out to 3 and shot-blocking skills. Unfortunately, he has a pathetic motor and is a low IQ player, and there is rarely a cure for that. He’d probably put up good counting stats, but end with a Christian Wood type of impact. Avoid him completely, no matter how tantalising.
• Filipowksi – Sub-par wingspan and some injury history means we should avoid. Has a reasonably high base level of skill – can shoot, pass and block shots. High-end outcome is a more athletic Kelly Olynyk, but equally could be a Kaminsky-type third stringer.
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