#1 Wisconsin defeated #4 North Carolina

North Carolina fans may not want to hear it. North Carolina is a blue blood program, and anything short of the Final Four will never be satisfying. But the Tar Heels got better this year. Wisconsin is an outstanding per possession offensive team. Per possession, their offense has somehow eclipsed Duke’s lethal scoring attack.

In order to beat Wisconsin, North Carolina was going to have to play precision basketball for 40 minutes. I thought that was extremely unlikely. Here are some of North Carolina’s numbers this year. In a loss to Louisville, the Tar Heels turned the ball over on 25% of their possessions. In a loss to Duke, they turned the ball over on 23% of their possessions. Heck, in a win against Virginia, they turned the ball over on 27% of their possessions. In the ACC tournament final against Notre Dame, it was only 19%, but a string of turnovers late in the second half turned a commanding North Carolina lead into a deficit that the team could not overcome.

In the Round of 32 against Arkansas, in a relatively chaotic up-and-down game the Tar Heels turned the ball over 21% of the time. Given the circumstances, I thought that was actually pretty reasonable. More disturbingly, in a slow Harvard game, a game with the same number of possessions as this Wisconsin game, North Carolina turned the ball over 28% of the time.

Somehow, against Wisconsin, North Carolina turned the ball over just 7% of the time. North Carolina needed to play nearly error free basketball to win, and they nearly did.

The Tar Heels also needed some outside shooting. Justin Jackson who at one point was down to 22% on his three point attempts, ended up shooting 13 of 26 from deep in his last eight games. His 3 of 3 from downtown against Wisconsin put a stamp on a late-season turnaround.

At halftime, North Carolina was leading the turnover battle with only 2 turnovers against Wisconsin’s three turnovers. At halftime North Carolina had 4 threes vs 3 threes for the Badgers. The Tar Heels had to play precision basketball to win, and for over one half of basketball they did.

In my opinion the game swung when Wisconsin PG Bronson Koenig went to the bench with four fouls. At lunch I had been discussing Wisconsin’s former starting PG Traevon Jackson with a former colleague. We remarked that without Jackson, Wisconsin’s perimeter defense had fallen off. But it was so hard to expect Jackson to come back from injury and be the same lock-down defender he had been before.

And so interestingly, with Koenig heading to the bench, Jackson did not enter the lineup. Instead, Bo Ryan went with Zak Showalter. Showalter was a non-factor offensively as a freshman, and this year Bo Ryan had planned to use him exclusively as a defensive specialist. And so in came Showalter. And with the game hanging in the balance at 61-60, Showalter stepped up his defense. He stole the ball from Nate Britt, ran the fast-break for a lay-up, and extended the lead to 63-60. And being that Wisconsin is the team that has perfect execution down the stretch, 32-0 this season, 115-3 in the last five years when leading with five minutes to go in the game, that was all the team needed.

But here is the thing that people haven’t noticed about Showalter. Yes, he is a solid defender, and a necessary one with Traevon Jackson still working to get back in form. And yes Showalter is a quiet offensive player. But over the last two games, Showalter hasn’t been afraid to attack. With Wisconsin playing extremely sloppy basketball against Oregon, Showalter made an open three. He also drove and attacked the basket for an easy lay-up. In a tight game against the Ducks, his offense was critical for giving Wisconsin a comfortable margin in the second half.

And again, after Koenig picked up an offensive foul on Thursday, Showalter was not shy. He cut underneath the basket and Josh Gasser found him for a wide open lay-up. It was a beautiful play that worked all the more because of Showalter’s reputation as a non-scorer. If you are not a fan of Wisconsin, now is the time when you probably start pulling out your hair. Where do the Badgers keep finding these guys? Aren’t seldom used bench defensive stoppers supposed to choke in the big moments in the NCAA tournament? How is it that against both Oregon and North Carolina, Showalter was the player who turned the game in the Badgers favor?

I would be remiss in recapping the game if I didn't mention the play of Sam Dekker. I think sometimes the Wisconsin forwards get too much credit. With five shooters on the floor, almost no one ever provides help defense to stop their drives. But after a terrible game against Michigan St. in the Big Ten Tournament final, Dekker has been on fire in the NCAA tournament. And Kaminsky hit his patented back-breaking late-game three.

But the Kaminsky moment I have to mention from this game came in the first half. With 7 minutes left in the first half, Kaminsky was defending North Carolina’s Marcus Paige. Paige tried multiple times to pump-fake Kaminsky and blow by him. Eventually he settled for a drive and contested jumper. If you weren’t in love with Kaminsky’s mobility before, that play sealed it. He may not be Willie Cauley-Stein defensively, but he’s a lot better than you would ever expect. Centers should not be able to guard all-ACC level guards.

#2 Arizona defeated #6 Xavier

There were not any Cinderella teams in the Sweet Sixteen this year. But that doesn’t mean there are not sometimes mismatches in resources. Arizona is the team with future NBA players at multiple positions and Top 100 recruits throughout the lineup. And Xavier is the type of team that fans of college basketball just love.

College basketball isn’t really about high level athleticism. If you want to see the best basketball players in the world, watch the NBA.

College basketball is about Dee Davis. He probably wouldn’t be the first player picked. But the senior Xavier PG drove to the basket with no fear late in the game and drew a foul among three Arizona defenders. And though Davis’ shot hasn’t really been there this year, he still had the heart to hit a huge rainbow three in the second half.

And college basketball is about Matt Stainbrook. Stainbrook is the definition of a below-the-rim player. But for 30 minutes, it didn’t matter. He was still the best post-player on the floor. Kaleb Tarczewski, Stanley Johnson, Brandon Ashley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, all were more prized forward recruits with more hops and more potential than Stainbrook. But the Uber-driver who gave his scholarship to his brother was the heart and soul of this game.

Reggie Miller, “How would you like to have a 6’10” 270 pound taxi driver show up?”

Kevin Harlan, “Only if he’s got the goggles on.”

Stainbrook reminded us that sometimes a soft-touch, a great passing threat, and a strong ability to back-down the defense can make up for a small vertical.

And the game went down in eerily similar fashion to the previous Wisconsin vs North Carolina game. Until around the five-minute mark, the underdog seemed to be in control.

But it turns out that Arizona has one of those players who wasn’t supposed to amount to much out of high school too. Scout.com said TJ McConnell was just a 2-star prospect five years ago. And a lot of people still overlook his game. They get wowed by Arizona’s other athletes and stats and forget how much Arizona’s PG matters. Midway through the second half, McConnell’s slap at the ball and forced turnover along the sideline was a huge momentum swing. And McConnell’s low line-drive three down the stretch was a back-breaker.

And so we will not be denied the Arizona vs Wisconsin rematch. Nine days ago, I felt it was a coin flip, but I was leaning towards Wisconsin. But the Badgers have now had a stretch of about five unimpressive basketball games in a row. I feel like the scales are tipping more towards Arizona.

And here is one more thing to keep in mind. Remember how late in the Xavier game, McConnell penetrated and kicked to Brandon Ashley for a critical 12 foot jump shot? That jump shot, and that floor spacing wasn’t there for Arizona last year, because Ashley was injured. The Arizona vs Wisconsin rematch is going to be fantastic.

#1 Kentucky defeated #5 West Virginia

Devin Williams picked up two fouls in the first 75 seconds. Len Elmore said Williams was West Virginia’s best player, which seems like an insult to Juwan Staten, who was first-team all-Big 12. But I have felt for weeks that Williams was the most irreplaceable player. West Virginia could replace Staten’s scoring, but they couldn’t replace Williams 30% defensive rebounding rate and proclivity for getting to the line. And Huggins was smart. He didn’t make Williams ride the pine for the rest of the half. To have a chance, he knew Williams had to be out there. But a player with two fouls is a less aggressive player.

Kentucky was the better team, so I don’t want to say the tight whistles at the beginning swung the game. But you could tell from the first 2 minutes, that if the game was going to be called that tight, that West Virginia didn’t have a chance to even make the game competitive.

WVU clearly didn’t have the dynamic scoring to make Kentucky pay in the half-court. And if the officials were going to blow the whistles at even the smallest hint of contact, West Virginia couldn’t create the full-court opportunities they would need to have a chance.

It is amazing how whenever an announcer sees Kentucky in person for the first time, their sheer size makes an impression. This time it was Chris Webber whose jaw was dropping. “Kentucky is just so big at every position!” Yes, yes they are.

#3 Notre Dame defeated #7 Wichita St.

I’ve been the first to criticize Mike Brey over the years for his team’s porous defense. But I should pay my respect and congratulate the coach for making his first ever Elite Eight in a month where he experienced such a personal family tragedy.

There are several teams left in this tournament that you cannot allow to get penetration, because they will kill you by kicking out and nailing threes. And Notre Dame is in that category. When their offense is clicking on all cylinders, it is incredibly fun to watch. I don’t understand why the announcers felt a fast-pace hurt Notre Dame. Notre Dame is at its best when it is aggressive and attacking this year.

But Notre Dame should celebrate tonight, because I think they have no chance against Kentucky on Saturday, even if they hit threes. Against a Wichita St. team without a particularly strong front-line, I thought Zach Auguste played awful. Yes, I understand that he doesn’t want to get in foul trouble and leave the game. But Auguste let Wichita St.’s Darius Carter abuse him in the paint. And Kentucky has some bigger, stronger players than Carter. Kentucky’s frontline is absolutely going to crush Notre Dame. Even if the Irish play zone, the offensive rebounds will be devastating.