The immediate future of the NBA may be decided in just six weeks when a crucial bargaining session takes place during All-Star weekend in Los Angeles.
There has been little progress since players submitted their counterproposal to owners at the end of June.
If owners feel a lockout is the only way to get players to cave, there will be one.
"After a year, the players will come back with $2.1 billion less in their pockets," a participant in past negotiations told Ken Berger of CBS Sports. "Who has more leverage now?"
"Owners and league negotiators believe they can compel the players to give enough ground without a work stoppage because it should be obvious to the players that the union [and thus many of the players] will run out of money after the first pay period of the 2011-12 season," Berger wrote.
Dwyane Wade and LeBron James would lose a combined $30 million if the entire 2011-12 season was wiped out, according to Berger.
The source added that a lockout will likely be all or nothing.
"Once you go through the initial pain to shut it down," the person said, "they're out for the year."
Owners Committed To Spending Less, Will Lockout To Get Players To Cave