RealGM Analysis
At the conclusion of every NBA season a player is awarded with the league scoring title. The recipient of the scoring title is the player who scored the most points per game throughout the entire season. Last season?s winner was Allen Iverson, who scored 30.7 points per game. What a lot of people don?t know is that of the 33 players that qualified for last season?s scoring title, (a player must have played in 85% of their team?s games or scored at least 17.1 ppg) no one took more shots than Iverson and only three players shot a worse percentage (Iverson shot 42.4%).
With no disrespect to Iverson I want to use a different statistic to determine who is among the league?s best scorers. It?s not a new stat, but it is very seldom used when talking about the best or most effective players in the NBA. Points scored per shot attempt, or points per shot.
To analyze the league?s top scorers I begin with a list of the 50 players with the highest scoring averages this season (Stats updated after games of 1/8/06). On the list of scoring averages Kobe Bryant led the league averaging 33.7 ppg. The lowest average on the list of the 50 players was 15.1 ppg, which belonged to Mo Williams of the Milwaukee Bucks.
After calculating the points per shot average of each of the 50 players (points per game/shot attempts per game) I reorganized the list in order of the highest pps averages. Here are the top 25 players in terms of points per shot, out of group of 50 players.
Player Points Per Shot (pps) Points Per Game (ppg) Scoring (ppg) Rank
1. Richard Jefferson 1.6371 18.5 32nd
2. Chauncey Billups 1.5348 19.8 24th
3. Paul Pierce 1.4943 26.3 6th
4. LeBron James 1.4366 30.6 3rd
5. Chris Bosh 1.4258 22.1 15th
6. Dwayne Wade 1.4021 26.5 5th
7. Kevin Garnett 1.3925 22.0 16th
8. Elton Brand 1.3911 24.9 11th
9. Gilbert Arenas 1.3785 29.5 4th
10. Wally Szczerbiak 1.3698 20.0 23rd
11. Zydrunas Ilgauskas 1.3539 15.3 49th
12. Steve Nash 1.3525 18.8 31st
13. Pau Gasol 1.3493 19.7 25th
14. Michael Redd 1.3422 25.1 10th
15. Troy Murphy 1.3361 16.3 44th
16. Vince Carter 1.3351 25.5 8th
17. Rashard Lewis 1.3313 21.3 19th
18. Carmelo Anthony 1.3297 24.6 13th
19. Dirk Nowitzki 1.3265 26.0 7th
20. Steve Francis 1.3077 17.0 38th
21. Chris Paul (R) 1.304 16.3 45th
22. Tim Duncan 1.2813 20.5 21st
23. Richard Hamilton 1.2797 21.5 18th
24. Tony Parker 1.2745 19.5 26th
25. Jermaine O?Neal 1.2732 21.9 17th
By analyzing the chart I created you can see some very interesting statistics. For example Richard Jefferson, the league?s 32nd scorer (2nd on his own team), has the highest points per shot ratio of all the 50 players I studied. It?s a full tenth of a point above the second ranked player, Chauncey Billups. Meanwhile notable scorers such as Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, and Tracy McGrady didn?t rank among the top 25 points per shot averages, but all were in the top ten in points per game.
Not all of the league?s elite scorers faired as poorly as they did. As you can see Paul Pierce, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Gilbert Arenas all finished in the top ten of my points per shot scoring list, and the league?s points per game list.
What you can draw from the statistics is who takes the best shots among the league?s elite players. Jefferson took the fewest shots per game, 11.3, of any of the other 50 players. His high points per shot ratio tells me that he gets to the foul line, uses good judgment on when to take a shot, and he makes a majority of the shots he takes.
Sure enough when you look at his stats Jefferson attempts eight free throws a game, and shoots 52.2 percent from the field. Only three players among the 50 I studied shot a better percentage than Jefferson did ? Tony Parker, Kevin Garnett, and Elton Brand.
I was surprised by one result of my analysis. I expected a majority of the top points per shot leaders to be centers or big forwards who make a living around the basket. After glancing at my chart I determined only eight of the 25 players where true centers or forwards who fit that description.
This is because the guards and swingmen on the list penetrate often, which means they shoot high percentage shots and they get to the foul line. What it also means is that guys are able to put up high points totals without taking 25+ shots a game. That allows other players to get more looks, and in turn increase their teams? chance of winning.
If you look at the top ten in the NBA in terms of points scored per game six of them have teammates who also made the NBA?s top 50 scoring list ? Iverson, James, Arenas, Pierce, Nowitzki, and Carter. If you do the same thing, but use my chart every player in the top ten has a teammate on the top 50 scoring list.
Of course you can?t knock guys like Kobe and Iverson for taking over 25 shots per game. In both cases the teams? playbook is heavily geared towards them, and the team relies on them to put the ball in the basket. However, the same is true for guys like LeBron James and Paul Pierce. They make the most of their attempts while also allowing for others to get a generous amount of shot attempts.
Based on these statistics I would argue that so far this season the league?s best scorers are James, Pierce, Dwayne Wade, and Gilbert Arenas. All four rank in the top ten of the points per game, and points per shot lists as of last weeks games. They are changing the definition of a scorer. While guys like Iverson, Bryant, and McGrady are great scorers, as far as I am concerned they should be considered shooters.
So maybe Mr. Stern should consider changing the scoring title qualifications. In my mind if the season ended today, Richard Jefferson would be taking home some serious hardware.
